Gold

[Skol]

Daytr,

"Skol, I am an ex Bankster, your term (and I know the gold bugs) not mine. Sorry where were you in 2008? The Western world financial system was on the brink of collapse & unfortunately not much has been fixed since. You reference the aunties in China is quite frankly rubbish."

Is it? This is from last Sunday's Shanghai Newspaper.
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On Sunday, Shanghai-based Liberation Daily, a newspaper owned by the Shanghai Communist Party, not only joined other news outlets in comparing the gold-shopping habits of aunties to grocery shopping but also suggested: “Their knowledge of banking and finance is close to zero, so their investments change with the winds. They’re also based on feelings, as well as the advice of close friends.”

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Where was I in 2008.? Reading the FT, which gave me plenty of warning that a world recession was imminent, whereupon I relegated 50% of my superannuation to cash. Those in a similar situation to me who didn't, found themselves about $100,000 down. The day that Lehman Bros collapsed I visited the Docklands Museum in London, and as I walked back to West London I watched the Lehman's banksters out on the footpath with their brown boxes and TV cameras in attendance. That's what happens when you leverage your assets 35 times and the market goes against you.

And these are the Oxbridge educated 'experts'. What a laugh.

[BIRMANBOY]

Your floor gold may be 1250 but actual cost of production is somewhere in the 600-700 according to WIKI..see my previous post..think it was 4651. Unfortunately it appears you actually are either "talking your book" or misinformed.

Hi All, just joined after being on HC for a number f years but as now based in NZ thought I may as well sign in here as well & I see Skol posts here as well so I'm sure there will be plenty of banter. I for one am bullish gold medium to long term, however short term it could go lower as the money printers keep inflating the party balloons in the equity markets that will eventually burst & it will be very ugly indeed. My floor gold is around $1250 where the marginal cost of production kicks in, not sure if we will get there or not but can't see it much lower, alternatively I do see it a lot higher in the coming years. Now for transparency reasons I should mentioned that I have traded gold for 15 years for banks & have now moved back to NZ to set up a Australian Equity Resources based fund mostly concentrating on gold stocks. So you may think I am talking my book, but its in reality what I believe & am certainly no gold bug. Anyway if you have any interest in looking at the fund, give me a shout. Cheers Daytr

[Daytr]

Hi Birmanboy, I did say the MARGINAL cost of production, not the average cost of production. i.e. $1250 is where production will start being affected. Some mines in Australia have already closed just recently however probably shouldn't have been in production anyway. $6-700 is the average cash cost not the total cost which is around $850 I believe & then you need to make a return on capital minimum of at least 20% so you are in excess of $1000/ounce. So perhaps you might want to take that back? I have been quite open about my book & experience so you can say I am talking it, or I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Anyway good to be on board with people interested in the gold market in NZ. So Skol nice to see you came through the GFC unscathed. I would be interested in your thoughts on QE & why you think it will work? I'm not being sarcastic, I am truly interested. Also do you have a target for the DOW & S&P?

[Skol]

Your floor gold may be 1250 but actual cost of production is somewhere in the 600-700 according to WIKI..see my previous post..think it was 4651. Unfortunately it appears you actually are either "talking your book" or misinformed.

Birmanboy, you are correct.

A book I have here, 'Gold Bubble', which went on the shelves when gold was $1,900 (good timing) says:

"A large gap between the cost of mining and production (around $600/oz) and the actual selling price of gold ($1,900) points to overspeculative gold prices.

[BIRMANBOY]

Money where your mouth is? I doubt whether there would be enough room? Your foot in there would take up a certain amount of space wouldn't it? I'm not interested in the gold market at all...just hate to see people get talked into "imminent rise", "trust me I'm a banker", "rebound around the corner". "gold is as safe as ...fill in the blank". Too many speculators and most of them being herded by even bigger speculators and scammers.

Hi Birmanboy, I did say the MARGINAL cost of production, not the average cost of production. i.e. $1250 is where production will start being affected. Some mines in Australia have already closed just recently however probably shouldn't have been in production anyway. $6-700 is the average cash cost not the total cost which is around $850 I believe & then you need to make a return on capital minimum of at least 20% so you are in excess of $1000/ounce. So perhaps you might want to take that back? I have been quite open about my book & experience so you can say I am talking it, or I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Anyway good to be on board with people interested in the gold market in NZ. So Skol nice to see you came through the GFC unscathed. I would be interested in your thoughts on QE & why you think it will work? I'm not being sarcastic, I am truly interested. Also do you have a target for the DOW & S&P?

[Daytr]

Skol, sorry but that is incorrect. If you are referring to cash costs ie. operating costs then you are close but its probably closer to $700/ounce. Total costs including capex is higher again & then as I said a return needs to be made. See an article about Barrick the largest gold producer in the world their cash costs were $561, but all in costs were $919/toz & they are cheaper than most producers, so the average is higher than that.

[Daytr]

Sorry link to article. http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...g-gold-prices/

[Daytr]

Birmanboy, thanks for the personal tirade, says more about you than me. Have I attacked anyone? Have I said, trust me ? I have offered opinions, views from my 15 years of being a professional gold trader & mine financier. So I have a view, but apparently you aren't interested in gold so it shouldn't matter to you. Put my foot in it eh? Not sure what evidence you have of that, however your stated cost of production being around 30-40% below the real cost of production i.e. total cost suggests as you say you have no interest in gold. Anyway guys suggest we keep it clean, its a small community which I have just joined however I didn't expect to be attacked fore having a view.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Daytr he is just one sad cat

[Daytr]

LOL PTC. I just walked my dog called Possum! haha