Gold

[skid]

Id be very careful with the Japanese share market.
Right now it is ticking along with all that newly printed money.So far it has decreased the value of the yen[making your investments worth less] but the Yen is NOT the international currency. Its a dangerous game and your investments could easily crash and burn along with your crystal ball.
Every one knows about China,but theres talk that ,not just yet,but INDIA is the one to keep your eye on.....and I wouldnt be so quick to discount BRAZIL

[JBmurc]

Jewellery demand in China is now 185 tonnes in the first quarter. If we extrapolate for the full year we can easily see 740 tonnes. With Indian demand clearly in excess of 1000 tonnes, together these two nations brings in 1740 tonnes out of 2200 tonnes produced by all mining operations globally ex China ex Russia or roughly 80% of global production."

[Skol]

Jewellery demand in China is now 185 tonnes in the first quarter. If we extrapolate for the full year we can easily see 740 tonnes. With Indian demand clearly in excess of 1000 tonnes, together these two nations brings in 1740 tonnes out of 2200 tonnes produced by all mining operations globally ex China ex Russia or roughly 80% of global production."

Good luck with your extrapolations, that's what the suckers did before the 1981 gold crash, I witnessed the entire debacle and subsequent bankruptcies and ruination.

Suckers were reading in advance what the price might be, drawing lines up the chart.

"It's gone up $50 this week, so it must go up $60 next week." lol

Nothing goes straight up (N225), the same as nothing goes straight down. (gold & silver)

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Commercial participants in the gold market, also known as “smart money” given that they work in the industry as opposed to being speculative trend followers, are the most bullish on gold in nearly five years.

As prices declined over the last few months, commercials - those involved in the production, processing or merchandising of a commodity - have been busy buying futures contracts and covering short positions, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

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Full Report

Commitments of traders data suggests gold will rise

Their position rose from a low of a net short 269,270 contracts in October 2012 to the present net short position of 84,122, notes a report from Euro Pacific Canada today. This means commericials initiated new long positions, and covered previous shorts, resulting in an increase in their total net position by just over 185,000 contracts.

It’s a different case for the other two groups that the CFTC tracks in the commodity futures markets.

Large traders, mostly made up of hedge funds that are often trend followers, are currently net long 83,726 contracts - the most bearish reading since the October 2008 bottom. The group tends to be the most bearish at market bottoms and the most bullish at market tops, suggests Euro Pacific Canada analyst Dima Kash.

The third group, small traders, are those that control a very small portion of open interest in futures contracts, but their actions tend to help gauge retail sentiment nonetheless. Historically, they have been on the wrong side of the gold market at key inflection points, according to Mr. Kash. The group this month had a net short position of 1,704 contracts, an extremely bearish reading not seen since February 2001 when the gold market was about to begin its decade-long bull-market run.

Mr. Kash’s conclusion? “The current dynamics between the three groups signal that a significant intermediate-term bottom is forming in the gold market. This does not necessarily mean that prices cannot head lower, but it does mean that prices are attracting commercial buying interest – the smart money – at levels not seen since the financial crisis when gold declined from about $1,000 an ounce and hit a critical low at about $700 an ounce,” he said.

He thinks the key for investors now is to look for signs of a bottom, and technicals point to some important clues.

Click here to see Mr. Kash’s full report, which Euro Pacific has given us permission to republish in its entirety. It provides some interesting charts on the three group’s positioning in the futures market, as well as his



what are the thoughts on this???

[JBmurc]

-the Fed Chairman before Greenspan, said in 2009: “Gold is my enemy. I am always watching what gold is doing.”

-George Soros, the consummate political insider investor, bought $25m of call options of the North American GDXJ Junior Gold Miners Index in Q1 2013. He also increased his GDX shares by 30% to $100m, but reduced his shares in GLD by 20% to $82m.

-In the roaring 20’s, before the crash of 1929, share prices were frequently moved up and down by “pools” of brokers, investors, and finance houses, and these machinations were openly discussed in the newspapers. Is this ok? It’s a free market, so you can do anything that’s rational and makes a profit, right?
Well after the crash it didn’t seem like such a good idea. In the US it was outlawed in 1933 and 1934 by the Glass-Steagall Act and by the establishment of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to oversee “fair trading” in the markets. But the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed in 1999, and the SEC is a toothless tiger when it comes to precious metals (it has been investigating manipulation for several years, but oddly enough cannot bring itself to any conclusion).



http://www.321gold.com/editorials/evans/evans052713.pdf

[Skol]

Not to worry JB, paranoia's a common thread amongst goldbugs, they always feel as if they're up against it and the system's screwing them, the real story though is that gold and silver are largely irrelevant in today's markets. Why would you own a chunk of gold or silver when you could buy a gold ETF if you felt that way?

All the gold indexes down again last night, another bad day coming up for the XGD.

Last 12 months:

S&P500 +22%
HSI +21%
N225 +68%
DAX +30%
FTSE 100 +26%
XJO +25%
------------
Gold -11%
Silver -20%
HUI -39%
GDX -39%
GDXJ -44%
XGD -43%

Goldbugs will catch on one day. In the meantime all looks to be going OK with the US economy, consumer confidence is up, house prices are motoring away, hotel room prices are increasing at about 7%pa on the West Coast, tourism's booming. It's all hunky dory.

[skid]

Goldbugs will catch on one day. In the meantime all looks to be going OK with the US economy, consumer confidence is up, house prices are motoring away, hotel room prices are increasing at about 7%pa on the West Coast, tourism's booming. It's all hunky dory.[/QUOTE]

I think I may have read a quote very similar to that from 1929--LOL

[skid]

All comes in cycles eh Skol? We looking for 40,000 N225 again?

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe...eC_focus2.html

I think they have a good point in this article--people are reluctant to jump in to Gold ATM because they fear that another sell off could come--but if another fear comes along that is greater than that[sharemarket?] then things could change substantially.
Of course everything seems pie in the sky and being paranoid........until it happens

[Daytr]

Skol, if I truly believed the financial institutions & CBs of the West were conspiring against gold then I would have stayed well away long ago as they have far more ammo than the gold bugs or the mums & dads etc. Its because I don't believe that, that I think the market will see sense & realize that the debt burden particularly in Japan is a real problem, let alone the US & Europe. I believe the market see gold as something that is bought & sold valued in currency which the CBs are willingly trying to devalue & the banks & hedgies will go long or short when they view it profitable to do so. My view is that we aren't far from that point & the massive spec short position will at some point need to be covered. What will spark that is any number of global sovereign debt issues around the world or a highly inflated Japanese stock market or it could be some thing geopolitical.

[Skol]

Daytr,

I've heard all that before - for years. "the massive short position". What massive short position? Global sovereign debt? Debt, schmet, if the 'big one' was gonna happen it would've happened by now, for sure.

Gold is a fad whose time has past, an anachronism, there's a gold boom every generation as the newbies latch on to some drama which has, or is going to take place that will send gold to the moon.

The GFC's over.