Gold

[Valuegrowth]

If investment demand continues to decline and gold ETF holders continue to sell, I believe a gold price below $1,000/oz .Gold will eventually return to its true cost of production.

In addition we have to accept no currency, stock or any commodity will go straight up and down. We had great rally for gold during last 10 years and gold cycle has reversed to bear territory now. There can be dead cat bounce for gold time to time and intelligent players will make use of this opportunity to sell their gold positions. It is time to become bullish on commodities with demand and supply mismatch and emerging commodities globally. Investors will have some great opportunity to pick some emerging commodity stocks globally in the coming weeks and months.

Myideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

[JBmurc]

If investment demand continues to decline and gold ETF holders continue to sell, I believe a gold price below $1,000/oz .Gold will eventually return to its true cost of production.

In addition we have to accept no currency, stock or any commodity will go straight up and down. We had great rally for gold during last 10 years and gold cycle has reversed to bear territory now. There can be dead cat bounce for gold time to time and intelligent players will make use of this opportunity to sell their gold positions. It is time to become bullish on commodities with demand and supply mismatch and emerging commodities globally. Investors will have some great opportunity to pick some emerging commodity stocks globally in the coming weeks and months.

Myideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

James Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC in New York continues to be constructive on gold in the medium and long term and sees gold rising to $1,600/oz in the second half of 2013.

In a Bloomberg audio interview, Steel said that this year the gold market has been under pressure and has experienced a rotational shift out of commodities in general driven by the constant chatter of a tapering off in QE and experienced very steep declines in mid April. He likens it to a rugby scrum pulling back and forth near the $1/400oz level, between ETF outflows and strong physical demand for coins and bars, notably from China.

Steel said that in the past few weeks the heavy ETF outflows have died down, and prior to this year they were mostly static. The peak for ETF's was 85M ounces at the end of last year. He says most institutions have already exited that wanted to get out.

Market chatter has been nervous about the unwinding of QE3. Steel points out that unwinding or paring back is very different than an exit. The Fed many need to do tapering for a long time before it ends their program.

Steel mentions that it was the jewellery market that drove the gold market in the past and now it is investment demand and demand from China. He believes gold will average is $1,542/oz and he is predicting a rally in the second half of the year up to $1,600/oz. Longer term, he is on record as saying that gold will rise to over $2,000/oz.

[Skol]

Personally I believe gold will end up <$1,000, these guys say $1,200.

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfund...L_hpp_blog_fof

[Skol]

Gold forms another short-term bearish pattern.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-form...arish-pattern/

[elZorro]

Gold forms another short-term bearish pattern.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-form...arish-pattern/

Jay Taylor says look to mid-June for a turnaround in gold, Skol. Lots of other interesting comments here.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/06/in-p...-flow-is-king/

[Skol]

Keep on hoping EZ, looks very grim for precious metals and more carnage to come today on the XGD. Can't be too much longer before even the most diehard goldbugs throw in the towel.

Some might say I'm cherrypicking, but since gold peaked just under 2 years gold the DJIA has increased by 40% and gold has declined by 26%. In general stocks and gold are not correlated.

HUI -2.84%
GDX -2.87%
GDXJ -3.69%

Since gold peaked in Aug 2011 the XGD is down 68%.

[Skol]

Goldbugs, for some unfathomable reason have slavishly bought gold 'because the central banks are buying gold'

Why?

Beats me, I've never figured it out, these are supposed to be the best and brightest but have singlehandedly lost about $560 billion since gold peaked. Well done boys. It turns out they did the same thing in 1980, buying at the peak and selling at the low.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...mmodities.html

[elZorro]

Bernanke is holding a press conference at the moment. Whatever is happening, there's a sharp spike in US$, and a dip in US$gold.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/...trending_now_1

[Skol]

$1349, looks like the next whacking has begun.

[Daytr]

yep have to agree gold looks like it will test 1300 soon and if it breaks that it will test 1200 very quickly.
Time to sell out of my gold mining play, happy with 20%.

However Aussie gold is actually up as the Aussie got smacked harder than gold. Looks like the Aussie is finally acting as a commodity currency cushioning the drop in USD commodity prices. NAB today sai they are looking for 88-87 area in the Aussie.