Gold

[FarmerGeorge]

Addendum Farmer George, this is the return for gold against the S&P500 total return index which includes dividends, since '75.

Gold up 180%.
S&P500 up 1147%

Over time, shares, including dividends leave precious metals for dead.

GLD down another 1.2 tonnes overnight.

Cheers Skol - that's more like what I was expecting and is illustrative of the compounding effect of dividends. Perhaps you could have juiced your gold returns via leasing and picked up some income in the meantime which would also have compounded - but on the other hand if you think there's a currency crisis on the way you're not really likely to lend your metal for dollars anyway.

[blackcap]

I've just read an interesting article "Has gold lost its lustre" on John Mauldin's "Outside the Box". Rather too long to copy for this thread but it can be found on his website or by Googling "Outside the Box", if anyone's interested. I don't know the author but Mauldin is normally a good judge of what's worth reading.

thanks for the link macduffy. interesting and refreshing read, not only on gold.

[Skol]

Not long now until $1,000 gold.
The median house price in the USA is up 15.8% on a year ago, still quite a few homeowners underwater, but nowhere near as many as a couple of years back.
Barron's goldmining index is descending nearly vertically, down 4.52% last week.

If gold was to catch up to Barron's goldmining index the price would be $977, to catch up to the GDXJ it would be $892.
If silver was to catch up to the silver mining index it would be $17.37.

The SPDR GLD Trust is bleeding by the day, down 2.7 tonnes on 3 days ago.

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL.....Moosie, the meister of understatement....most of us cant even understand ourselves ...good luck on the other million "investors" out there.

thanks for the article macduffy. the thesis is that the market will only pay what it thinks a commodity is worth, and that value fluctuates as perceptions change. if you can put aside emotion and understand human psychology, the market should be quite easy to buy and sell into and out of.

[Skol]

Looks as if the employment figures did a bit of damage to the gold and silver price but as usual the goldbugs say the numbers are rigged, except when it's bad news and then it's proof that the USA is going to hell.

I can tell from the goldbug posts that resignation or 'capitulation' has arrived, they're very despondent, talking about 'stacking' all the way down, 'stacking fiat' (can you believe that), selling out, trying to guess when the 'bottom's in', blaming 'paper gold' for their problems, a bond crash. lol

What's left of the goldbug community will be pondering this weekend what to do, I'll guess that this week there'll be another rout.

[Skol]

And now their Silver imports are going through the roof ...

No they're not:

By RAJESH ROY

NEW DELHI—India's gold and silver imports in June fell 70% from the previous month following steps taken by the central bank and the federal government to curb demand, a senior government official said Friday.

India, the world's biggest gold consumer, is estimated to have imported $2.5 billion of gold and silver in June, compared with $8.4 billion of imports in May, said the official, who didn't want to be named.

The official didn't give separate figures for gold and silver. Usually, gold accounts for most of India's imports of precious metals.

The decline in imports will provide much-needed relief to the government, which is struggling to check a rising current-account deficit due to sustained demand for gold. India's current-account deficit was 4.8% of gross domestic product in the financial year ended March 31, up from 4.2% a year earlier.

The wide deficit has also been a cause of concern for foreign investors, who pulled $7 billion from Indian stocks and bonds in June, weakening the local currency which last week fell to an all-time low of 60.75 rupees to the dollar.

India has been taking steps to reduce gold imports, most recently by increasing the import tax on the yellow metal to 8% from 6%. The Reserve Bank of India has restricted banks and trading agencies from importing gold on deferred payment, effectively requiring dealers to pay cash in advance for imports.

A price slump in mid-April combined with peak wedding-season demand fueled gold purchases during April and May. Imports of gold and silver rose 109% from a year earlier to $15.88 billion during the two months.

[Skol]

SPDR GLD Trust down 16.04 tonnes of gold since Friday.

946.96 tonnes remaining.

[Daytr]

Yep & gold up 1.3% today. The fall since the US jobs number didn't last long. At $1180 we may have seen a bottom, but too early to tell yet. Certainly the market isn't as bearish as it was with quite a few banks saying the worst has been done for gold. ETFs although still bleeding are at a much lesser rate. Could be an interesting few days although can't rule out $1180 being tested again.

SPDR GLD Trust down 16.04 tonnes of gold since Friday.

946.96 tonnes remaining.

[Skol]

Thing you're going to be disappointed Daytr, the only thing that's gone up is the gold price everything else is down, HUI, XGD, Tonnage at SPDR GLD, Indian imports, China imports and sales, and US Mint sales.

http://www.investingdecoded.com/#!/2...surprised.html

[Daytr]

Hey Skol, I think you are being a bit selective what you are comparing them to. The only one of the physical elements that is down YTD is the ETFs, everything else is up substantially ytd. The ETF sales seem to have slowed substantially & I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks they become a net buyer again. If the gold price has bottomed, then the shares will rocket like any market that is over-sold. As you say back the truck up haha. Well I haven't done quite that, but I have been loading up a bit in the last week or two.

Thing you're going to be disappointed Daytr, the only thing that's gone up is the gold price everything else is down, HUI, XGD, Tonnage at SPDR GLD, Indian imports, China imports and sales, and US Mint sales.

http://www.investingdecoded.com/#!/2...surprised.html