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Thread: Gold

  1. #5171
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    Well Daytr, one guy who absolutely rubbished me was this dude:

    http://www.goldoz.com.au/home.0.html

    A gold 'expert', no less.

    Have a look at the last time he updated his portfolio - 29/12/12, there'll be a good reason for that which you won't need to be Albert Einstein to deduce. He called me a 'serial nuisance', just before gold crashed, but not much from him recently.
    Gold is merely taking a breather before the next step down, which will be to around $1,000.

    The gold chart doesn't look like it's 'bottomed out' to me.
    Last edited by Skol; 12-08-2013 at 05:30 PM.

  2. #5172
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    Skol: I'm not a diehard..by now I must be a contrarian, because gold seems out of favour

  3. #5173
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    Hi Skol, not rubbishing you, apologies if it came across that way. However I do think you need to look at positives & negatives & weigh up the balance of those. You obviously feel the negatives for gold far outweigh any positives. Short term its possible you maybe right & gold could go lower again, I don't know if it will or wont. However over time once the ETF pressure comes off I think gold will be much higher than where it is now. My own personal view is that gold could test the lows again, however I don't see it going much lower than that as I think a lot of the ammunition that thumped gold a few months back has been spent. Gold appears to be relatively well balanced trading where it is with sentiment probably slightly bearish, so if gold had neutral sentiment I suggest it would be trading perhaps $100 higher. If sentiment turns strongly bearish again then we will see those lows of $1180 tested again.

  4. #5174
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    I don't feel at all offended Daytr, but I think that you will have to agree with me that everything returns to the mean, and so will gold.

    Charles P. Kindleberger's book "Manias, Panics and Crashes', refers to the 1970's surge in the price of gold, and made the observation that 'the price of gold was increasing, because the price of gold was increasing'.

    In other words a mania was afoot, like recently, but the book also makes the observation that gold is a good inflation hedge, but currently gold is so far ahead of inflation it will take years, or a violent crash to work it out.

  5. #5175
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    Moosie, I think much of the QE tapering is already priced into gold, although yes I agree if & it is a big if they start tapering soon then yes its a negative for gold as the USD is likely to strengthen. IMO they won't begin tapering unless unemployment is around 6 - 6.5% & at the current rate of job growth that could take at least a year. Meanwhile the Chinese Aunties as Skol refers to them as keep buying.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...jumps-54-.html?

    And Skol I don't agree everything returns to a mean, with that argument the share market must also head south? And the oil price what does that argument mean for that? There are many instances where 'thing's don't return to a mean price particularly if you are including a period of time for gold where it was fixed at $35/ounce artificially. Things will return to a level that the market is willing to pay for them in relation to the value of other things. Another words what the market perceives as value.

  6. #5176
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    Daytr,
    The stockmarket has in no way emulated the gold mania of the last few years, gold increased from $400 in Jul 05 to $1,920 in Sept 2011, an almost 5 fold increase.
    The DJIA has from its low in 2009 to its high in 2013 increased only 2.2 times.

    And as I say endlessly, stocks produce things people need, gold produces nothing, it's dug up, refined and then reburied. It has no utility.

    Gold induces a kind of madness in people every generation, it crashed 60% in 1980 when gold fever subsided and it took several years to hit rock bottom, whereas it's only 2 years since the recent bubble burst, impoverishing many goldbugs who keep picking the bottom.

    It could be a fatal mistake assuming that chinese aunties will keep buying, they have the same human frailties and idiosyncrasies as everyone else and are just as prone to herd behaviour as the rest of us. When I was debating the peak oilers they used to keep telling me "the chinese are buying all the oil they can find".

    They were too, but only until they realised that the oil mania was over when it rose to $147 and crashed.

    Here's something else from Bloomberg:

    On Sunday, Shanghai-based Liberation Daily, a newspaper owned by the Shanghai Communist Party, not only joined other news outlets in comparing the gold-shopping habits of aunties to grocery shopping but also suggested: “Their knowledge of banking and finance is close to zero, so their investments change with the winds. They’re also based on feelings, as well as the advice of close friends.”

    and:

    "The current rush is unusual in two ways. The first is its epic scale. The second is that, according to both traditional and social media, aunties are doing most of the buying."

    Join them if you must Daytr.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...ng-heat-tipped
    Last edited by Skol; 13-08-2013 at 06:32 AM.

  7. #5177
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    Maybe in the next day or so we'll see if the gold market is being played or not. Have a look at this recent chart, the writer says to watch out for a suckers rally here.

    http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/08/gold...f-the-week-46/

  8. #5178
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    [QUOTE=Daytr;421324

    And Skol I don't agree everything returns to a mean, with that argument the share market must also head south?.[/QUOTE]


    There is a difference between a stock market and a commodity or a currency. Commodities and currencies are zero sum games but stocks are not. Stocks produce earnings, have dividends and can grow infinitely and do not have to return to the mean. Commodities and currency are a totally different story.

  9. #5179
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    This video provides a very thorough, quality technical analysis

    http://www.forexspace.com/forex-insi...lish-structure
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #5180
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    This video provides a very thorough, quality technical analysis

    http://www.forexspace.com/forex-insi...lish-structure
    Thanks Peat. The 'pa-turn' is for gold to move higher in the short term. Using Elliot wave, TA, etc, they all concur. There is also a possibility that gold has completed 5 stages of a downward move, and could move up more solidly from here. Who would be brave enough to act on that?

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