Right so old uncle Benny going turn of the tap ....who's going buy all the new debt ? US absolutely needs foreign creditors to finance their trade deficit, which over the past 12 months was around $500 billion.....but the foreign creditors are moving away from funding the US excess spending .....IMHO the talk of tapering or stopping the ongoing Q.E is just that TALK
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
The market somewhat is pricing in tapering & that is why the US stock markets have underperformed in recent weeks & gold has benefitted. IMO the premium QE put into gold came out a long time ago & went into the stock market & is now hesitant due to the unknown timetable of the Fed.
In saying all that I get the feeling gold is in for a breather & pullback toward $1380. I freed up some cash today in case as I think any pull back will be temporary so will be a buy opportunity. Either way if I'm wrong I still have plenty invested, but if I'm right then I can top up.
While the talk goes on here for and against the gold price seems in the last two months to be flirting with the 1400 level. Remember last April it fell to 1320 and the movement since in really is about 1400 average. Now long run where from here --that is the question?????
Hi Moosie, why will gold have a long term fall back? And all empires come to an end & if you can't see that the writing is on the wall for the US unless they make drastic change to their political system as well as their sovereign debt then you are in the dark ages my friend. The US has major structural issues they have been unwilling to face as the political cost is too much. I'm not saying its all doom & gloom for the US & they could trudge along for some time in their current state & slowly lose their sovereign credibility through a mountain of debt that just keeps ballooning. Remember how Regan busted the USSR, by out spending them until they were bankrupt. The US haven't learnt from their own lesson. And then there is Europe & Japan all major issues yet to be addressed. And who keeps buying gold Asia & the biggest fastest growing middle class in the world by a long way. I don't necessarily believe in gold but there are enough people that do & that's good enough for me. If 85Bln a month of stimulus for years & virtually zero interest rates can't spark an economy then there are some serious issues that need addressing.
Originally Posted by moosie_900
Hehe, the gold price looks like XRO! Question is, does Rod Drury back the yellow metal bricks that JB and Skol keep chucking at each other? Me thinks not. I'm seeing our last run up before tapering starts (maybe to $1500???) then a long-term fall back down.
JB, the US has been raising the debt ceiling since 1788, gone through innumerable wars and tough times, seen President's come and go, seen empires rise and fall, but still it persists. It's going to keep going up and it will not kill the USA, because it is not different this time. Get used to it!
Hi Moosie, why will gold have a long term fall back? And all empires come to an end & if you can't see that the writing is on the wall for the US unless they make drastic change to their political system as well as their sovereign debt then you are in the dark ages my friend. The US has major structural issues they have been unwilling to face as the political cost is too much. I'm not saying its all doom & gloom for the US & they could trudge along for some time in their current state & slowly lose their sovereign credibility through a mountain of debt that just keeps ballooning. Remember how Regan busted the USSR, by out spending them until they were bankrupt. The US haven't learnt from their own lesson. And then there is Europe & Japan all major issues yet to be addressed. And who keeps buying gold Asia & the biggest fastest growing middle class in the world by a long way. I don't necessarily believe in gold but there are enough people that do & that's good enough for me. If 85Bln a month of stimulus for years & virtually zero interest rates can't spark an economy then there are some serious issues that need addressing.
I agree, the 20th century belinged to America and this one is still up for grabs. however, I see obama slashing spending and reigning in spending to get to the root of this cause. he is goung niwhere near far enough, but you can't keep racking up debt forever. the USA does need to change, but you have no idea how immensely stubborn they can be. try living next to them for 18 years! they insist they are the centre if the universe and I think that helps to a degree (even if they are uttrly incorrect!) the economy is coming right again, it just takes time. combined with some fiscal restraint, things could change.
Moosie, Moosie, Moosie.. the economy is not really money, it's profits, and at the end of the day the profits come from input energy that cost you less than you thought it would. Whether it's human effort, or oil, gas, cheaper materials to work with. Wages in the States are dropping, that's a start. But energy costs continue to trend upwards. They cannot be a manufacturing powerhouse again until their energy costs reduce compared to other countries, and their labour costs are still too high. Do you see any of this helping employment? Lower tax income, no-one paying all the bills, sovereign and private debt, this is what's happening in general.
They're smart enough, they need to be working on renewable energy resources, we all should be, with a lot more urgency.
Meanwhile, the US$ gold price should trend upwards. Uncertainty, safe haven, lower US$ basket over time, the dow in gold, all are pointers. Along with the eventual tapering of QE3. Gold might drop at first when that happens, then watch the flood out of stocks. It'll have to go somewhere.
Or more likely a pragmatist that understand's you can't fix the problems by going further into debt and looking to enter yet another WAR >>>President Obama is moving toward a military strike against Syria. Any final decisions haven't been made, but senior administration officials talk of Syria now as a place where the U.S. and its allies must exact a military price for heavy use of chemical weapons ..http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-...-global-chaos/
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Moosie, Moosie, Moosie.. the economy is not really money, it's profits, and at the end of the day the profits come from input energy that cost you less than you thought it would. Whether it's human effort, or oil, gas, cheaper materials to work with. Wages in the States are dropping, that's a start. But energy costs continue to trend upwards. They cannot be a manufacturing powerhouse again until their energy costs reduce compared to other countries, and their labour costs are still too high. Do you see any of this helping employment? Lower tax income, no-one paying all the bills, sovereign and private debt, this is what's happening in general.
They're smart enough, they need to be working on renewable energy resources, we all should be, with a lot more urgency.
Meanwhile, the US$ gold price should trend upwards. Uncertainty, safe haven, lower US$ basket over time, the dow in gold, all are pointers. Along with the eventual tapering of QE3. Gold might drop at first when that happens, then watch the flood out of stocks. It'll have to go somewhere.
Yeah funny how wasn't that long ago the media would talk up the negative affects of higher crude oil prices now WTI $106bbl
and everything is fine ....
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Originally Posted by JBmurc
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