ouch, Monday is going to hurt for a lot of people! appears a sucker rally has just emerged. amazing what a few words with "taper" in them can do.
glad I sat this one out. never buy on a Friday when the market still has another day to play out while you wile away the weekend!
Overall it's a joke ,,,so called reason for sell-off is surprise,Surprise "TAPER TALK NOW OCTOBER" this is after 12 weeks of "HERE COMES THE TAPER" to fact we can't TAPER>>Bernanke specifically stated that “we are tied to the data, we don’t have a fixed calendar schedule” and that a low interest rate policy will be in effect until unemployment goes below 6.5%----then day later Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said a small tapering of bond buying is possible next month....WTF this has become a joke either Taper or don't enough of the B.S TALK....
Watching CNBC last night good interview with Major US Bank CEO stating he can't see how they can TAPER till least mid 2014 and even then it'll need to be backed up with some real positive data as tapering then having to raise would send a very bad message to the market....etc
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
I would like to confess that after spending a life time earning money and after starting with just 3 dollars in1962 I am today well off but my confession is that I do not know hardly anything about money. My suspicion however is that I know just enough to know I know f---all.. For most of my fellow humans I do wish that they knew just a wee bit more so they could evolve to my state of knowing f---all.
All my life I have heard 1000's of times that we can not just go on getting deeper in debt, but we do and the solution if it can be called that is to go into debt a bit more.
So why can we not just raise the debt limit not only in the next few months but forever and ever as we have in the past. No one has ever reached infinity yet so why can this quantify easing not just carry on?
I fully suspect it will. Thoughts as I do not understand.
1960's low personal debt with purchasing done in cash by individuals before goods and services consumed
1970's increasing personal debt with purchasing increasingly done on credit (debt) by individuals because of new financial debt tools (credit cards etc etc)
1980's higher personal debt increasing consuming done in credit fueling riskier wealth generating investments by individuals such as property
1990's high debt now shared by corporations. No change to 1970,1980 consuming and investing behaviours
2000's high debt now shared by governments corporations to bailout the corporations. No change to 1970 - 1990 consuming and investing behaviours
2010- sovereign debt supported by tax payers allows individuals and corporations to continue wealth generating behaviours with risks passed onto tax payers / society
My Big Questions are
At what point before 2020 do Governments need "help" to share sovereign debt and how will that be managed?
How will society react if governments are unable to finance the Quantitative Easing / money printing / low interest regime ?
My answer to your question is... we can carry on until we see a loss in confidence ("money") in value of what we have created (debt). We almost saw that at the peak of the GFC. That's why governments slashed interest rates and ramped up QE.
I'm fascinated by the next stage to 2020 and look forward to thoughts on this.
Cheers
Last edited by mistymountain; 21-09-2013 at 01:43 PM.
There is more debt than in the past, but also tighter regulations, scrutiny and consequences for transgressors. Society doesn't function without debt and that's a fact, but there's also been a huge reduction in debt since 2007.
2007 was always going to happen and there were plenty of warnings in the FT and the Economist that property and debt were out of control, so I reduced my debt accordingly, I fail to see how so many got caught out, it was a massive bubble and the consequences of the bubble will be around for years to come.
You didn't need to be Albert Einstein to see it coming.
Not forgetting of course that much of the misery since 2007 has been caused by greed, whether it's Blue Chip, finance companies or towns and cities losing millions trying to extract that extra income using sub-prime debt.
Warren Buffett doesn't seem too concerned, neither does Bernanke, only the goldbugs perpetuate the myth that economic catastrophe is at hand when in fact there have been 2 periods in the 20th century when the USA had more debt than it does now. As the economy improves, so the debt will reduce.
Even if I thought an economic implosion was imminent, I'd pay off debt (which I already did in 2006), and buy things people need, I wouldn't buy gold or silver.
Goldbugs also await the day that the US economy will be overtaken by China, but it's not going to happen, China's headed into a recession and the USA is headed out. China's an accident waiting to happen; debt, property prices, one party state, rioting, corruption, political despots like Bo Xi Lai, environmental catastrophes and ethnic unrest. China is incapable of building an aircraft carrier, the USA built one every 2 weeks in WW2.
As Warren Buffett says about gold, "it has no utility".
Nothing's perfect, never is, but things have been a lot worse like WW1 and WW2, but humans have a habit of solving problems in the long-run, all is well as far as I'm concerned.
Gold and silver have declined for over 2 years, precious metals are dead in the water, yesterday's punt, a flash-in-the-pan.
Goldbuggery thrives on fear and conspiracy theories, treat them with the contempt they deserve.
I would like to confess that after spending a life time earning money and after starting with just 3 dollars in1962 I am today well off but my confession is that I do not know hardly anything about money. My suspicion however is that I know just enough to know I know f---all.. For most of my fellow humans I do wish that they knew just a wee bit more so they could evolve to my state of knowing f---all.
All my life I have heard 1000's of times that we can not just go on getting deeper in debt, but we do and the solution if it can be called that is to go into debt a bit more.
So why can we not just raise the debt limit not only in the next few months but forever and ever as we have in the past. No one has ever reached infinity yet so why can this quantify easing not just carry on?
I fully suspect it will. Thoughts as I do not understand.
Because of inflation (currently understated by the Obama Admin) and then hyperinflation. It's happened with many other economies (Germany, Argentina, Rhodesia, etc) - you cannot just keep printing money forever expecting the economy to pick up unless you get a decent rate of return (e.g. job creation, industry and GDP growth, etc) which QE is not producing. It's a slippery slope, a very slippery slope. Watch out - by year end (perhaps by November) people are going to get very frightened by what's been put in motion by Borrow-big Obama and his cohorts. Keynesian economics is long on promise and short on evidence that heavy borrowing gets economies out of strife. You don't need to look much further than Greece. On paper, the US of A will by 2014 be a candidate for an IMF bailout - a very large one...unless of course the Chinese negotiate a deal to purchase California which most other Americans wouldn't mind selling off.
BC
To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.
Yeah I agree just looking at the last year Gold chart it shows clearly to have been under pressure since this time last year...THIS HAS NOW CLEARLY BEEN BROKEN
Anyone with basic T/A skills can see 1350 was a very pivotal point for gold twice on it Bear trend it bounced till it was broken mid June and fell all the way to it low point High resistance level 1200 where from there the BEAR trend was broken as the Short term Pivotal point 1350 was crossed on that new Bull trend it double topped out 1420's($220 rise)a reversed downwards to make a bottom 1320's then under one of the biggest one day moves Gold move some $60 upwards passed the 1350 ST Pivotal point ......That to me at that exact time looked to be the start of a break higher towards 1420 resistance >>>>but as we see at present Gold has moved downwards again .....will it Double bottom the 1320's to make a strong charge on the 1420's or will it break lower to double bottom of a lower point or will it (in SKOL's wet dreams) break through 1200 to start the major BEAR TREND once again
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Geez SKOL why would JPM be facing a lawsuit they do nothing wrong ???do they
Next up for JPMorgan: A fight with the CFTC
JPMorgan spent nearly a billion dollars settling charges related to the so-called London Whale debacle, but that doesn't mean it's out of the woods yet.
A threatened lawsuit from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission could portend a drawn-out legal battle—or another expensive settlement.
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
I never stated Breakout but broken downtrend in my post you quoted
[QUOTE=Skol;428845]JB,
6 month gold? You may as well front up with a chart for 6 week gold, how about 1 year?
There's no breakout here, it's all downhill, poverty approaches for overexposed goldbugs.
Geez your a knob >>> ^1yr , 6month , 6 week who cares simple T/A the down trend was stopped,,,, broken,,, finished ON THE DOUBLE BOTTOM !! july 1200 !! now this doesn't mean Gold is going to 2000 next week or GOLD couldn't fall further.... just the year long DOWNTREND WAS BROKEN ....where we go is anyone's guess it could well trade sideways without strong direction trading 1300-1400 etc
Or make a new break one direction for Gold HATERS like yourself your be cheerleading a strong move south past the recent double 1200 bottom which would put the long term bear trend back on track ....or for the believers in sanity in this mass money creating madness that GOLD will put check on the Trillions of new freely created $$$$$$ like it has done all through history time n time again...and break the 1420's towards 1500-1600+
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Originally Posted by moosie_900
ouch, Monday is going to hurt for a lot of people! appears a sucker rally has just emerged. amazing what a few words with "taper" in them can do.
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks