Gold

**Daytr** · 02-10-2013, 01:28 PM

The market is trading completely irrationally in my opinion & its just not because I am long gold equities. If anyone can tell me last night's sell off made sense I think they should look to get a check up.

It appears to another buy the rumour, sell the fact scenario on the Government shut down & debt ceiling. The only issue is, is that not all the facts are in. The shut down itself will be temporary however may drag on longer than a few days that the market seems to think, again not really the key issue. The key issue is the mounting debt & lifting the debt ceiling & the most important consequence, being another credit downgrade for the US.

I found the attached video link quite interesting on why gold is behaving like it is & perhaps there is some truth to it. Skip to the last half if you don't want to listen to it all.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/expec...FDZ5390jA.html

The old line a market stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent comes to mind...

**Skol** · 02-10-2013, 02:17 PM

Originally Posted by Daytr

The old line a market stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent comes to mind...

The market isn't irrational in my opinion Daytr, gold's got years of inflation already built into it and it's got a long way south to go yet to where it's 'rational'.

**JBmurc** · 02-10-2013, 02:36 PM

The Whole lot is completely Irrational

I can't understand how Obama can get away with so much of his bollocks you never see the media pull him up on anything he stated in the past ,,,He's the fkn Teflon man ...

-Past Obama--
"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can't pay its own bills," Obama said before a March 16, 2006, vote on raising the debt limit. The Senate narrowly approved raising the limit along partisan lines, 52-48, with all Democrats opposed.(funny now it's the dead opposite)

-Obama emphasized issues of rapidly ending the Iraq War--(was only recently pushing to attack Syria only stopped thanks to being voted down in the U.K with Cameron also Pro-attack ....Obama lost support )

2009 "WE can't keep running deficits ,we will cut the Deficits in Half" OBAMA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lll3lFjZ8Pw

I just watched the Obama puppet yesterday ...."We need to keep are Military #1 in the World if it means raising the debt level so be it"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfi...mission-first/
Although China, Japan, and other major creditor nations have no dog in the Obamacare fight, they have a strong interest in preserving America’s basic financial, economic, and social stability. From their point of view, the Tea Party contingent is not following the script and a corrective may be necessary.
If the creditor nations were to sell just a small proportion of their American assets, they could send Wall Street into a tailspin, with unpleasant implications for the net worth of many Republicans.

could add doz's more examples ...

**JBmurc** · 02-10-2013, 02:55 PM

And The DOW goes UP ?? WTF

Quoted in Bloomberg, consulting firm IHS Inc. estimates that the initial effect of the shutdown is at least $US300 million ($321.9 million) a day, but that figure will increase at an accelerating rate if confidence and spending is further depressed. According to IHS, a week-long shutdown would clip 0.2 percentage points (annualised) from fourth quarter GDP growth. Anything longer than that will obviously have a far greater negative effect on the economy.

**Bobcat.** · 02-10-2013, 05:09 PM

One explanation could be computerised trading searching for a double bottom. Strong support at 1271 (see the graph below) has almost been tested a second time. Perhaps the fact that today's bottom was 7 points above that low is a positive sign. I'm not spinning, just looking to better understand the technical analysis (timing is just as important as determining fundamental improvement in the Gold digger stocks I'm now holding).

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-01...jimw.htm#gold2

Daytr - I've averaged down on GOR today, and not just cause I respect your commitment to this company. I like what I see in this stock and FP's analysis published today has confirmed a Hold recommendation. I would say it's very little risk to buy more of this stock anywhere around 7c -- it has some nice upside.

I've also come in on OGC. Technically there is good support at 1.75NZD (1.50AUD). Fundamentally sound and (from what I can tell) reasonably well managed.

I'm expecting both to lift tomorrow. As to what constitutes 'fair value' for any gold and/or silver digger, that's an elusive concept. Value is heavily driven by the market PoG.

BC

**JBmurc** · 02-10-2013, 06:00 PM

Yes also a new OGC shareholder.... going from their latest presentation OGC all-in costs round $1000oz US producing round 300koz p.a + 14kt copper with plans to reduce costs using lower energy costs / increasing plant output >>>

**Daytr** · 02-10-2013, 06:42 PM

Hi BC, I would have liked to have done the same, but am heavily weighted on GOR already so had to leave the position as is. I am a bit out of date on OGC, I met with them around 18 months ago & I must admit I wasn't overly impressed with them. I had a lot to do with the NZ assets over the years when it was 40% owned by Churchill capital. They were a smart bunch but did run into trouble a bit with a large hedge book (closed out years ago). The NZ assets always seemed like difficult mines to run. Not bagging them just not a big fan.

**JBmurc** · 02-10-2013, 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by Daytr

Hi BC, I would have liked to have done the same, but am heavily weighted on GOR already so had to leave the position as is. I am a bit out of date on OGC, I met with them around 18 months ago & I must admit I wasn't overly impressed with them. I had a lot to do with the NZ assets over the years when it was 40% owned by Churchill capital. They were a smart bunch but did run into trouble a bit with a large hedge book (closed out years ago). The NZ assets always seemed like difficult mines to run. Not bagging them just not a big fan.

the NZ assets mainly Macraes is low grade 1g/t but OGC do very well with Avg Industry All-in Cost across the three NZ mines when you think how expensive it is here to run a business in NZ

OGC growth will continue IMHO just look at the numbers from their latest Didipio project all in costs.... -$10-$290oz (net cu credits)

We get a good kick in the gold price OGC 300koz+Cu production metric's will add some serious free-cash flows many Gold producers only dream about