Gold

[Skol]

Skol and others could have joined Moosie with a purchase of OGC at 160c late this afternoon. Nervous traders exiting after just a single day's bullish run.

I suppose I could've, but I own DOW, which increased 4.6% for the day. OGC went up 3.9%. DOW's a company that does real things and pays a dividend, not digging a metal with no intrisic value out of the ground.

[skid]

Thanks for the tips but no thanks, I like the lazy mans way to riches, property, and shares like SGP, DOW, MGR, ABC and IVC. The only share i trade on a regular basis is VAH.

Property in or near AKL is better than gold, lifestyle blocks near AKL reported today as up by 26.3% in the year to Sept.

OGC up 5% today, the rest look to be fizzers Bobcat.

Yep,my main portfolio is Auckland property as well but lets face it,it was easy for me (and probably you)to buy in back in the past) these younger guys dont have that chance these days-I think that would qualify as easy to make money in hindsight.--great if you've got it ,but not easy to start from scratch.

So lets step back and take a look at things--The US has postponed their dilemma for 3 months (and shown what clowns they really are in the process,well and truly losing the respect of those few that had any)
The US share market is looking dangerously over bought with all the ''easy" money already made.
In Europe another crises looms in weeks or months.
I think more people are 'feeling' that nothing has really been solved and its just a matter of time before more bad things happen IMHO
Lots of stats coming out this week --If they are rosy,that may help to settle the nerves--if not ,it could be the catalyst for a share market correction--they need good news

[JBmurc]

Yep,my main portfolio is Auckland property as well but lets face it,it was easy for me (and probably you)to buy in back in the past. these younger guys dont have that chance these days-I think that would qualify as easy to make money in hindsight.--great if you've got it ,but not easy to start from scratch.

So lets step back and take a look at things--The US has postponed their dilemma for 3 months (and shown what clowns they really are in the process,well and truly losing the respect of those few that had any)
The US share market is looking dangerously over bought with all the ''easy" money already made.
In Europe another crises looms in weeks or months.
I think more people are 'feeling' that nothing has really been solved and its just a matter of time before more bad things happen IMHO
Lots of stats coming out this week --If they are rosy,that may help to settle the nerves--if not ,it could be the catalyst for a share market correction--they need good news

Your right there Skid being 36yrs old I was very lucky to catch the last major Property boom 2000's and make some good money ....but you older guys were really one of the luckiest NZ Generation's ever in that respect some great returns and high Inflation to assets over the last 30-40yrs with many booms n busts ...I know for one in my seasonal fishing job I'm not making much more than the same guys did back in the 80's yet they could buy a couple investment properties every year,, where I could Only put down a 20% deposit on the same revalued properties today.....(so basically they were five times better off that me at present to free cash Incomes to properties) ....Auckland ,chch may be making some bubbles currently but unless we start seeing the average workers wages north of 100k I can't see how the new 20-30yr olds will get ahead in the bubble NZ property market 10% p.a = bollocks....Their true Wealth will likely only from inheritance's are kids will certainly benefit from our parents wealth in the future

As to the debt crisis the plan is "KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD SOMEONE ELSE CAN DEAL WITH IT"

I see China has amassed 3.7 trillion in surplus trade .....where many western nations dig deeper into debt and don't even attempt to balance their trade deficits ....

[elZorro]

I agree with that JB, this is a different situation now, profit is harder to find, and so the bandaid has been applied to many economies. Even over here we can see that China increasingly holds the cards. It's not an American firm that wants to buy out Synlait. On the other hand, a lot more American 'money' is going into XRO. One of these investments will be a lot safer than the other one.

Skol has trotted out the old line that gold has no intrinsic value. It does, when it's plated onto components or made into jewellery. And the discovery and mining of gold and silver employs millions of people around the world I would think.

[Skol]

Punters buy the SPDR Gold Fund for exposure to gold, real gold.

Since July 1st GLD has sold 87 tonnes of gold

Reason-gold speculators don't want it anymore.

[elZorro]

Punters buy the SPDR Gold Fund for exposure to gold, real gold.

Since July 1st GLD has sold 87 tonnes of gold

Reason-gold speculators don't want it anymore.

Since July 1st, nearly 3Moz of gold has been sold? Sounds like quite a lot. It's US$3.6billion worth.

[Bobcat.]

Punters buy the SPDR Gold Fund for exposure to gold, real gold.

Since July 1st GLD has sold 87 tonnes of gold

Reason-gold speculators don't want it anymore.

Again that is in the past, Skol. I think you'll find that for the remainder of this month GLD will be buying more than selling.

Tuesday (US time) will see a lot of US economic data released (the first time since the shutdown). IMHO its employment data and a lot (not all) of other data will be dreadful ... which will be enough to fuel Gold's bullish run onward and upward to a 1350USD resistance.

BC

[Skol]

I agree with that JB, this is a different situation now, profit is harder to find, and so the bandaid has been applied to many economies. Even over here we can see that China increasingly holds the cards. .

'China increasingly holds the cards'

Goldbugs revile America and ridicule the recent political deadlock, democracy's not perfect but sure beats the hell out of communism where the leaders are a collection of geriatric 'yes men' sitting around clapping each other and singing 'The East is Red'.

Pollution causes 470,000 premature deaths each year in China

You guys can back China with your money but I won't be. When the Vietnam war was on there was the domino theory that one country after another would fall and become communist, it was Stalin's (and subsequent leaders) and Mao's firm belief and craving that the entire world would end up a communist paradise , but in fact 20 years later the domino theory worked in reverse and communism became virtually extinct with the exception of North Korea, Cuba and China. Cuba will be the next domino to fall, probably once the Castro dictators are 6 feet under. 98,000 US citzens visited Cuba in 2012.

If there's one place on Earth the numbers are being doctored it's probably China, corruption is endemic

Why do you think there's so many Chinese diaspora? (locally known as the asian invasion) Anyone with money in China owns a house (and bank accounts) overseas to educate the kids and have a bolthole in case it goes pear-shaped in the Middle Kingdom, there's hundreds of thousands of riots there very year, it's a state secret exactly how many, but because westerners aren't killed we don't have the actual numbers since 2010, when there were 180,000 riots and strikes, an average of just under 500/day. How many were killed in Tianenmen Square is still a state secret.

There's a chance China will implode and become the next Yugoslavia.

Shanghai Composite Index

1 year +6%
2 years -10%
5 years +15%

S&P500

1 year +18%
2 years +46%
5 years +80% (92% incl dividends)

The gold bubble's burst but the goldbugs still hanker for the good ol' days of $1,920 while losing their moolah, in the meantime those that have bet on the US stockmarket have made money and will continue to do so.

I own an AMP mutual fund that's heavily weighted toward the USA, as of 2 months ago it was up 21% for the last year, gold's down 26%.

Using the WSJ mutual fund screener, in the last year, the average precious metals equity fund is about -48%, the average large cap fund was +15-20%.

The goldbug proclivity to despise the USA has cost them very dearly.

[Bobcat.]

Good morning Skol,

Equity markets have over-reached on the back of money being printed in the USA to prop them up, and are due for a major correction (the S&P500 and DJIA in particular). Yes, tapering is off the cards until at least 2Q14 but its positive impact on sharemarkets is dwindling as the downside of continually printing money kicks in.

The price of Gold rises when there is greater love (e.g. Indians or Chinese middle class purchasing more gold as a gift or asset) or greater fear (e.g. via a loss in confidence in currency fiat (particularly the USD) as a result of expected inflation (linked to rising real interest rates) and/or dramatic world events undermining confidence in the global financial system). Read between the lines, observe the market signals, and trade accordingly.

If the PoG drops below 1300USD again it will not be for long. IMHO we are witnessing the beginnings of another bullish run (thank you Obama, you big spender you).

Buy Gold.

BC

[Skol]

The taper will begin soon, from the FT:

Fed could taper as early as December: “The US government shutdown sabotaged a crucial month of data and dealt a blow to the world’s largest economy, but the Federal Reserve could still begin reducing its asset purchases as early as December. Analysts have slashed their growth forecasts for the fourth quarter to 2 per cent or below, with many expecting a hit of about 0.5 percentage points from the prolonged shutdown. But many said the economy would bounce back quickly with federal employees back at work.”