Gold

[Bobcat.]

SPDR Gold Fund down another 12 tonnes in the last 2 days, the selling is increasing.

Meanwhile the S&P500 +22.32% YTD.

Gold YTD -21%.

Stick with it boys, the bankruptcy laws aren't as tough as they used to be.

Skolly - what turns your wheels, matey? Are you really only going to be happy when you see a trendline that's 6months in the making? Do that and you will miss the opportunity to get in early enough to make significant profit. Only the very nervous, timid and cautious drive with one eye continually on their rear view mirror.

Buy low on the way up, sell high on the way down. Gold is on the way up and has been for over a week.

I tried to help you with recommended buys last week on AQG, OGC and PGI - did you get off your hands and buy some? All have climbed over 10% through the past 4 business days.

It's not too late to get on the gold wagon - expect some precious metal diggers to trade down a bit after 2pm on the ASX. You could buy into them then.

Happy sailing...

BC

[Daytr]

Gold set to go a lot higher...

As per previous posts, gold should target $1550 from here.
Last night's break above $1330 was a critical step & there appears to be a confluence of factors that should drive much higher over the next 3-6 months imo.

Physical demand is strong.
ETF selling dwindling.
US debt ceiling issues on-going & likely downgrade of the US's sovereign rating.

This should be enough to get gold $200 higher imo.
From there & this is the $64M question, does investment sentiment then turn & drive gold back through $1550 & target the previous highs. If the ETF net demand turns positive it's game on in my opinion. Combine that with new ETFs coming on stream in Asia & Russia to add to demand.

Curve balls as I see them.

QE is dumped because its simply not working. Gold would probably get initially sold off, however equity markets more so & I think gold would bounce back quickly & stronger.

US data improves, unlikely in the current environment of sovereign debt uncertainty.

The US agrees to face its debt problem by cutting more spending & raising taxes. Again a negative for equities & bullish for gold imo.

I have been trading in & out of gold stocks aggressively but I am looking to set & hold & ride this as I think we have just started a phase that will have multiple legs I may get in & out at times but will be far less willing to sell unless I se another screaming opportunity to capitalize on.

Well if Thursday is rally night, what was Tuesday (last night!) Could Thursday even be bigger & we crack on toward $1380?

[Bobcat.]

Next critical price resistance to bust through is USD1350-ish. This is the next high on the now defunct downward trendline, as well as where it hits the bollinger band. Shouldn't be too difficult given the spikes of late - currently sitting just 9 clicks south.

Next one after that is the peak following the false positive on the night of the last FOMC meeting (1380-ish), which I'm expecting to be more of a challenge. My trigger finger will be getting itchy at that price, but until then the challenge is mine -- i.e. to sit on my hands when it gets tempting to take profit (I made a mistake this morning selling PRU on a 14% spike).

There's wind in them thar' sails....

Some gold diggers (SCI, TRY, GOR, AZS) are still not budging, which is interesting (still a buying opportunity?)

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-22/template_jimw.htm

[Logen Ninefingers]

Curve balls as I see them.

QE is dumped because its simply not working. Gold would probably get initially sold off, however equity markets more so & I think gold would bounce back quickly & stronger.

US data improves, unlikely in the current environment of sovereign debt uncertainty.

The US agrees to face its debt problem by cutting more spending & raising taxes. Again a negative for equities & bullish for gold imo.

- QE won't be dumped. The only game in town in the US now is the super-normal profits US corporates are enjoying due to the effects of QE i.e. ultra-low interest rates. The cost of borrowing and doing business has never been better. This is reflected in the share market. The Fed cannot taper because the wider US economy is a basket case.....wages are not rising, employment growth is floundering, jobless rates - when including those who have given up looking for work - are at around 23%. If the Fed tapers and the have a scenario of a tanking share-market coupled with the above 'situation at large', then the game is up. It will be up next year anyway once corporates start to disappoint the market by failing to exceed their QE stoked super-normal profits.

- US data will not improve. They have on-going chronic governance issues which will continue to play out. The whole house of cards is built on QE and the maintanance of artificially low interest rates.

- The US will not face up to it's debt problem; the Republicans and Democrats have very little room for compromise. Republicans have made zero tax increases a bottom line, and likewise the Democrats will continue with spending to support the sections of US society that are shattered and languishing i.e. their support base who they will not abandon.

[Skol]

Friend Daytr says "ETF selling is dwindling"

Take notice of this dude at risk of your financial health. The SPDR Gold Fund has sold recently around 1 tonne per day, now it's 6 tonnes per day.

[Bobcat.]

Friend Daytr says "ETF selling is dwindling"

Take notice of this dude at risk of your financial health. The SPDR Gold Fund has sold recently around 1 tonne per day, now it's 6 tonnes per day.

Asia is buying...

[digger]

Friend Daytr says "ETF selling is dwindling"

Take notice of this dude at risk of your financial health. The SPDR Gold Fund has sold recently around 1 tonne per day, now it's 6 tonnes per day.

Skol is the bottom and /or top not always signalled by increased volume as you point out?

[Daytr]

Great to see you haven't changed Skol. You have no foundation for a comment like that. I have you on ignore for a reason but saw what you wrote thru BC's reply. Very low Skol, but I wouldn't expect anything less.

Logen, I am not saying this is what they will do, but I think its what they need to do. They actually need to normalize the market & let the share market do the same. Close the deficit gap through cutting Govt spending & closing international tax avoidance. Also one thing I have called for them to do is Govt guarantee privatized infrastructure builds. Similar to a 1930s style building program however as the Govt can't afford to finance it let them be privately funded & operated but Govt guarantee the funding to give confidence. US infrastructure generally is in decay & has been for the last 20 years. So it would be money well spent & create jobs. Anyway this is what I think they should do, I'm not saying that actually will.

[elZorro]

I like those ideas Daytr. The USA is also short of profits generally, and this means fundamentally that their energy costs are now too high.

THE USA are one of the international partners in the ITER Fusion plant in France, planned to be completed in 2020, which could produce 10x more heat than it takes to keep it going. They're laying the foundations at the moment, and tweaking the design.

http://news.sciencemag.org/europe/20...-design-tweaks

There are many other carbon neutral fuel areas to work on, and so like the 1930s building program you speak of, this would be a smart area to divert resources to.

[Skol]

Great to see you haven't changed Skol. You have no foundation for a comment like that. I have you on ignore for a reason but saw what you wrote thru BC's reply. Very low Skol, but I wouldn't expect anything less.

Get off it Daytr, you haven't got me on ignore at all. I have every reason to make a comment like that, it's true, the SPDR Gold Fund is selling, big time, and I can prove it if you'd like me to, but that wouldn't be very convenient, would it, it could affect your client base.