Gold

[Bobcat.]

looks like Yellens comments on QE are the only thing keeping gold up right now. the only thing that is going to bring gold higher is inflation, and that's a loooooong way off. normally those staements would have seens a huge PM upwards trend; today it hardly broke even.

careful out there people, use your charts

Moosie - Yellen's comments were not entirely dovish. She played it a dollar each way. First she says that she is "not in a rush to roll back Qualitative Easing" and that "it was important not to start removing the Fed’s current accommodation because the economic recovery is still fragile.” That lifted gold from 1280 to 1293.

But she later went on to say that the program does have costs and “cannot continue forever". This is when the PoG backed off to around 1285.

Overall, there were no real surprises in her testimony - she's a dove and what she said was pretty much expected.

What will help Gold prices is her confirmation that it will be 2014 before taper begins (if it ever does). What is working against Gold is the low inflation experienced by the EC, UK and USA. Gold may well need a bigger pick-up in inflation for a longer-term uptrend but I find it interesting given the very low inflation currently being reported by several large economies that it hasn't sunk lower.

I'm trading off highs and lows through the current range of 1255 to 1325. There is more likelihood IMHO of a breakout to the upside. A little more fear and anxiety is all it needs, and yes that is a matter of not 'if' but 'when'.

BC

[Daytr]

Fairly disappointing night for gold imo. I suppose at least it isn't down, however I would have expected it to hold $1295ish & look to be challenging $1300 next week. There should be stops around $1305ish & $1322ish if gold can get there we should see some short covering.

[Bobcat.]

It's looking OK Daytr, having established a new support level at 1285 and now trading up looking to finish for the day (NYMEX) at a higher level than both Wednesday's and yesterday's.

.ASX normally has a bit of a Friday selloff but given the drift south in PM stock prices over the past week, I'm picking that most will hold well enough.

My little darlings at the moment are:
- OGC (which I see has risen nicely in Toronto overnight. Sold a quarter earlier this week but looking to come back in this morning to top up; and
- SCI, which has a buyer under the radar lifting its price daily (passing through previous resistance of 8c without a problem).

SOC (nice potential), AQG (smart player) and SBM (in spite of its high ASIC) also look ready to climb.

Discl: holding all of the above, except SBM.

BC

[skid]

looks like Yellens comments on QE are the only thing keeping gold up right now. the only thing that is going to bring gold higher is inflation, and that's a loooooong way off. normally those staements would have seens a huge PM upwards trend; today it hardly broke even.

careful out there people, use your charts

Not just inflation--Fear of the economy going pear shaped is another(whether economic or political) but neither of those is in play much ATM

[Daytr]

BC, see Juniors thread. Will send u an e-mail re DML as well.

[Daytr]

Skid, what do you mean going pear shaped? It already is imo, its now just a matter if it rots or manages to re-generate itself.

Not just inflation--Fear of the economy going pear shaped is another(whether economic or political) but neither of those is in play much ATM

[Skol]

Skid, what do you mean going pear shaped? It already is imo, its now just a matter if it rots or manages to re-generate itself.

Daytr is completely removed from reality.

There's billions of dollars of work going on not far from where I live, loads of jobs in the paper, the Sydney skyline is about to be permanently changed by a massive apartment construction programme, aircraft are full, property prices are booming, shares are at record highs etc. etc.

Punters overloaded with gold are the ones missing out.

[Bobcat.]

Euro Zone CPI announcements tonight at 11:00pm (NZST) could be interesting -

CPI (MoM and YoY):
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR and for Gold, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR / Gold.

Note that the impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency

Core CPI (YoY) :
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The data has a relatively mild impact because overall CPI is the European Central Bank's mandated inflation target. Again, however, a higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR and Gold, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR / Gold unless the fall is so dramatic it is recessionary.

According to GCI, economist expectations are :

CPI (YoY): 0.7%
CPI (MoM): -0.1%
Core CPI (YoY): 0.8%

...suggesting that any actuals that come in higher will be good for Gold (the converse is also true but to a lesser extent).

[Daytr]

Hey Skol, I actually looked at one of your posts just to see what on earth you would be posting about now. Again you miss the point, not for the first time or the last no doubt. It was the US economy that was being referred to not the Australian. Could have been the European or Japanese economy's though for that matter.

The Australian economy could have an interesting couple of years in front of it though with the massive pullback in the resources boom. With a very expensive property market Australia certainly could be one to watch out for if unemployment starts to tick up. Not saying it will, as it certainly has lived up to its Goldilocks reputation for decades now, however it may face some challenges. Iron ore seems to be certainly holding up, however I have always thought the massive gas projects were a risk. With US gas prices so low & so much production to come on stream they will need Asia to absorb the massive increase in production. Things like the Japan's aversion to nuclear power may help as perhaps China looking for greener fuel than coal.

Daytr is completely removed from reality.

There's billions of dollars of work going on not far from where I live, loads of jobs in the paper, the Sydney skyline is about to be permanently changed by a massive apartment construction programme, aircraft are full, property prices are booming, shares are at record highs etc. etc.

Punters overloaded with gold are the ones missing out.

[skid]

Skid, what do you mean going pear shaped? It already is imo, its now just a matter if it rots or manages to re-generate itself.

I stand corrected--should have said when everyone realizes that its still pear shaped and the worst is yet to come