Gold

**Skol** · 26-12-2013, 11:13 AM

Here are the 'experts' gold forecast for 2013. As you can see most of them weren't even close.

My end of years forecast was $1325.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_i...=forecast_2013

**Skol** · 26-12-2013, 02:01 PM

An average end-of-year 2014 gold forecast of 11 banks and a multitude of LBMA gold 'experts' yields $1253.

If we apply the average error by the banks and 'experts' for the last 2 years (-28%) the answer is $902.

**Valuegrowth** · 26-12-2013, 03:12 PM

Skol I agree with your following statement.

Most commodities will still do well, meat, milk, iron ore etc as the world economy improves.

Stock markets are breaking new high. Dollar doesn't seem to go down. Consumer spending is looking good. Gold is experiencing its worst year in 32 years. I do expect 52-week lows in precious metals in the near future. With this end of year tax loss selling, I did expect some further declines in the precious metals.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

**Daytr** · 27-12-2013, 02:43 PM

To be honest as long as Aussie gold does well, I don't really care where USD gold is priced. In saying that I still think USD gold goes higher over time & I'm still sticking to Marchish as my turning point.

**Skol** · 27-12-2013, 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by Daytr

To be honest as long as Aussie gold does well, I don't really care where USD gold is priced. In saying that I still think USD gold goes higher over time & I'm still sticking to Marchish as my turning point.

Rule No. 11 applies in this case.

11. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 30% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.

**JBmurc** · 27-12-2013, 08:18 PM

Originally Posted by Skol

Rule No. 11 applies in this case.

11. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 30% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.

Really this is a ASX thread from what I've read most of us poster that hold the odd PM share hold them on the ASX ....EPS is worked out in AUD ...so what the Gold Silver etc price is in AUD really does matter

**Daytr** · 28-12-2013, 03:17 PM

Moosie, So if they were wrong in 2013, perhaps they will be wrong again in 2014...

Originally Posted by moosie_900

Even the eternal goldbug Aden sisters (who were 100% wrong in 2013) are calling for 50% of capital in equities and only 10% in miners (along with 10% cash; not very faithful eh?!?!):

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-12-27...ook-2014.html#

Bet they will continue calling for backing the truck up all through 2014 while PoG slides inexorably downwards. Meanwhile, they're 50% in equities will keep them happy as Larry. Then, if it turns, they will say they were right all along (a lot like some people we know!)

Man they are ugly (just for the record).

**Bobcat.** · 31-12-2013, 11:17 AM

We were always going to get profit taking last night and tonight as fund managers close out their books. I suspect we will see greater levels of profit taking in Equities later today and tonight (in Asian, European and then US markets) than we have seen in Gold and Silver over the past 24 hours.

Once the Equities bubble pumped up by 2013's larger than expected US corporate profits begins to vibrate and threaten to pop, investors will run scared to precious metals (retailers are typically slower to cotton on and sell after the pop). Smart money will begin moving back into Gold (my guess is early January) led by physical buying which we are not yet seeing but IMO will very soon.

The past week's slow rise in the POG was always going to be corrected before rising again. Tonight's trading will be interesting: if the POG rises from around 1290 (and silver from around 19.5) then support is confirmed, and the next target is a breach through 1220 (silver: 20.20).

Many ASX PM stocks have been resilient with nice rises over the past two weeks. IMO, that pivot and upward trend still has legs.

BC