Gold

[skid]

There was a glimmer of hope for a while there that the terminally ill US economy was going to do OK because someone gave the patient a pain killers and he looked ok on the outside,(while he continued to smoke ,drink ,and party hardy with someone else's money)
But now that the painkillers are being cut down ,withdrawal symptoms are starting to show.

Some day they will figure out that it is more important to keep your countries population in work,even at the expense of the fat cats making a few less billions.
But it will take a
''Man of the people" coming along who is not afraid to commit political suicide rather than the usual Corporate slaves.

Meanwhile gold just does what it does, reacts to the state of the beast (which is the real show)

[Daytr]

I wouldn't read too much into the non-farm payrolls number & even the next one might also be bad. Remember there is a massive freeze going on in North America & that would certainly have an impact. Obviously if its the start of a trend, then that's something different. That participation rate though is just damned right ugly & I do think this is the number that people should be concentrating on.

[skid]

There was a glimmer of hope for a while there that the terminally ill US economy was going to do OK because someone gave the patient a pain killers and he looked ok on the outside,(while he continued to smoke ,drink ,and party hardy with someone else's money)
But now that the painkillers are being cut down ,withdrawal symptoms are starting to show.

Some day they will figure out that it is more important to keep your countries population in work,even at the expense of the fat cats making a few less billions.
But it will take a
''Man of the people" coming along who is not afraid to commit political suicide rather than the usual Corporate slaves.

Meanwhile gold just does what it does, reacts to the state of the beast (which is the real show)

[peat]

I wouldn't read too much into the non-farm payrolls number & even the next one might also be bad. Remember there is a massive freeze going on in North America & that would certainly have an impact.

The figure was for December though and afaik the cold spell starred in January so I'm not thinking this is a factor.
Always going to be volatility in the monthly figures of course

[Daytr]

Yeah I was wondering about that as well. Numerous reports stated the cold as a factor, so I think the well publicized record polar vortex hit in January, but I still think it was pretty freezing in Dec as well.

The figure was for December though and afaik the cold spell starred in January so I'm not thinking this is a factor.
Always going to be volatility in the monthly figures of course

[peat]

Need to look at past years and see if seasonality is trend for summer months.

figures are seasonally adjusted

there is no question it was a poor result and the weather or the season is NOT a factor.

Indeed there is a specific piece of info describing the impact weather has on the figures http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm#revisions21

How can unusually severe weather affect employment and hours estimates?

In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Unusually severe weather is more likely to have an impact on average weekly hours than on employment. Average weekly hours are estimated for paid time during the pay period, including pay for holidays, sick leave, or other time off. The impact of severe weather on hours estimates typically, but not always, results in a reduction in average weekly hours. For example, some employees may be off work for part of the pay period and not receive pay for the time missed, while some workers, such as those dealing with cleanup or repair, may work extra hours.
In order for severe weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be off work without pay for the entire pay period. About half of all employees in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semi-monthly, or monthly pay period. Employees who receive pay for any part of the pay period, even 1 hour, are counted in the payroll employment figures. It is not possible to quantify the effect of extreme weather on estimates of employment from the establishment survey.

However the upwards revision of October and November figures mitigates this result a little
Employment gains in October and November were 38,000 higher than previously reported

[Daytr]

Thanks peat. What it doesn't address is those who had work to be done & wanted to employ someone to do it but had to postpone it due to the extreme weather, i.e new jobs. It appears it only addresses people that lose their current employment due to weather.

[JBmurc]

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices 2014



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43816.html

[Skol]

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices 2014



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43816.html

The word 'guarantees' should be the warning signal. I've just taken delivery of a new book JB. It's called 'Annals of Gullibility', and goldbugs should buy a copy.

[Bobcat.]

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices 2014



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43816.html

"higher' than what?

a) higher each month than its corresponding month of 2013? That's not going to happen (it was 1665USD on Jan 30, 2012)
b) higher at year end? Probably - but getting that information now is next to useless
c) higher on average for the year? Possibly - but again that is useless information now.

Emotive language with little commitment.

If the headline was "Long-term bullish run on gold has again kicked into gear - bears are once more on the back foot" then I would be more impressed.

BC