Gold

[Skol]

And so the quality of the thread deteriorates yet again. When will people learn to use the ignore button. Seriously turns me off!

Daytr says he's got me on ignore, but he obviously hasn't. I think you guys should do business with Daytr, he makes 100% return in 3 months, the same as Charles Ponzi.

[Skol]

I hope you feel special Skol I just found out how to use the ignore list and you are about to be the first and only one on it.

Yeah, I think you should if it makes you feel better, then you'll only read good things, not bad things.

If your psyche is unable to handle a contrarian view it's a very good decision.

[Daytr]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, it appears there has been some profit taking in both gold & gold miners today. Gold needs to hold $1275-80 area tonight to prove this wasn't a false break. I suspect we may see $1275 tested but if holds should then crack higher again. I think a lot will depend on how the US equity markets perform tonight. I am expecting them to resume the recent down trend, but I could be wrong obviously. I have been pretty happy with RSG's performance being up most of the day when quite a few miners are down & its looking like closing flat give or take. I still think relative to its peers its about 25% under valued.

[Daytr]

Gold has done well again overnight, equity markets in the US not so much basically flat other than the NASDAQ up 0.33%. Yesterday next resistance lines were mentioned & there is a key one I missed being $1307/08 area which is the 200 day moving average (DMA) & also a retracement level.
So not only is there the barrier of $1300, but that as well to consider.

For those interested in the 'level' playing field of the banks, you may find this article interesting & basically outlines Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley's unfair advantage over others in commodity markets. No mention of a JP Morgan in sight by the way.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1B09720140212

[Daytr]

Thanks Moosie that's really quite interesting. I had been hearing & seeing a lot of chatter re a repeat of 1929, but not being a doom/gloom merchant was fairly dismissive. Its the first time I have seen a chart of it & you are right the parallel is quite scary. I have been saying for some time that I thought the US equity markets were in a bubble propped up by QE & with tapering, equity markets would falter & gold correspondingly do well & this seems to be playing out right now. I will certainly keep an eye on that level of 1762 in the S&P.

Here's a nice scary chart for everyone to freak out about

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sca...ion-2014-02-11

[Bobcat.]

$1300 very close now. US looks to be getting a bit skittish now. BC, that head and shoulders pattern is nearly formed now. Scary!

Might start holding cash to see what plays out...

Yes, I've gone from 95% loaded to now just 70% (i.e. 30% cashed up) with most of my stocks (80%) now in PM diggers or explorers.

Hold on to your seats, investors; get ready for some volatility, traders - 2013's boom is about to be followed by a 2014 bust.

Hear that rumbling? It's a stampede of bears coming, and they are getting o' so near.

BC

[Skol]

XJO vs Gold for 2 years. 50% difference.

[Skol]

Here's a nice scary chart for everyone to freak out about

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sca...ion-2014-02-11

The excesses of the 1920's are nothing like the presesnt recovery from a severe recession. If the recovery proceeds as I expect, stockmarkets will continue their climb and gold will continue its decline.

[Daytr]

Aussie unemployment numbers out, much weaker than consensus. Aussie down as a result. :-)
Copy & paste from NAB below.

On the below headlines AUD quickly from 0.9025 to 0.8950, back into the recent range, next support level is 0.8930 (mild), but there are stops looming below 0.8900 which I think will be triggered inside the next 24 hours

JANUARY EMPLOYMENT -3,700 (CONCENSUS +15,000)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.0 (CONC 5.9)

[Daytr]

This just in from Bank of America (BOA) seems they are cautious as well. I have generally found BOA one of the better predictors for the POG.
Precious Metals: Gold continues to trade firm, trading shy of 1300 again. Two things are rather noticeable to us at the moment: firstly, dips are generally rather shallow and market is trading very well. And secondly, suddenly everyone is bullish on the highs. You could argue that point 2 is explained by point 1, but some things do not add up. Generally risk is bid, treasury rates are climbing and gold is also bid, which is very counter-intuitive. We are therefore wary of being overtly bullish up here and would even suggest that we are approaching a sell zone (1290-1310). The big test for the bulls will be a test of 1270 – if that gives way, then we have underlined our range trading environment.

Vols had a firm tone on Tuesday but after failing to push higher to the 200DMA at 1306, vols now are sagging. Even the recent darling options, 1300-1325 strikes out to 3M, are now under pressure. Has supply entered the market or is the market losing faith in the gold rally? We haven’t seen the sellers, but with stocks rallying and 10Y yields 15bps off the lows, it’s hard to stay bullish gold. Front-end RR’s are the cheapest they’ve been in over six months (just 1.65 for puts in the 1M)… so if you do fancy dipping a toe in and buying some puts, the timing is near perfect (spot on the highs, vols selling off, RR’s cheap).

Key support levels (XAU): $1,253 / $1,235/ $1,210
Key resistance levels (XAU): $1,300 /$1,326 / $1,350