Gold

[Skol]

going isn't going down anymore so now you've changed tactic to silver Skol? :P

Gold isn't going to go down anymore? Don't bet on it, the more the sharemarkets go up the more punters will abandon precious metals for dividend paying stocks.
And when interest rates rise, gold is a dead duck.

[Bobcat.]

Yes - Gold now has a solid foundation just north of $1300USD (adding to last December's solid double bottom just south of $1200USD). I'm holding fewer PM stocks than I was last month (down to about 40% of my portfolio) but will continue to hold these until $1350USD is reached (tonight?). Most analysts are pointing to $1360USD being the technical level that provides substantial resistance but given its relentless rise of late, I'm guessing a correction from a level just south of that.

It will be interesting to see if that POG correction coincides with a more general and overdue correction to Equity markets.

BC

Discl: ASL, AZS, CFE, CHN, EVN, NTL, PDN, PGI, RSG, RMX, RXL, SOC, WAF.

[Skol]

Daytr says:
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It is widely reported that Soros allegedly has taken a massive short position on the US equity markets & some time ago did the opposite in gold miners. We all know how the latter position must be doing! As I said the smart money... Happy trading. Daytr
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It's correct, Soros has shorted the US stockmarket according to CNBC, must be losing millions, a bit like gold 'expert' John Paulson lost a billion in 1 day on gold.

Remember John Paulson? The goldbug poster boy?

[JBmurc]

Well yet again overnight Markets moved higher along with Gold/Silver/Oil so saying they always work inverse of each other is a load of bollocks>>>

[Daytr]

JB who says that? Oil & gold especially at times when either is spiking will quite often run in tandem. I think if you do a day to day correlation its not that high from memory, however on big moves they tend to run together.
I have a fairly controversial view on oil & I think over the next few years it will go much lower. There will be hydrogen cell powered vehicles in production by Toyota next year. Toyota have already said that they will also build the infrastructure to support if need be (fuel stations). This imo over the next 5-10 years will become a massive threat to oil companies & their downstream retail distributors unless they to adapt. It will also be great for the environment!

[Daytr]

Again we see Asian session selling. It appears we are on a set & forget cycle at the moment. Will we see buying in NYK time again tonight? All cycles break & I suspect the short term equity / gold correlation will break sooner rather than later.

[JBmurc]

JB who says that? Oil & gold especially at times when either is spiking will quite often run in tandem. I think if you do a day to day correlation its not that high from memory, however on big moves they tend to run together.
I have a fairly controversial view on oil & I think over the next few years it will go much lower. There will be hydrogen cell powered vehicles in production by Toyota next year. Toyota have already said that they will also build the infrastructure to support if need be (fuel stations). This imo over the next 5-10 years will become a massive threat to oil companies & their downstream retail distributors unless they to adapt. It will also be great for the environment!

Who,d ya think ... Are main gold hating man skol

[Daytr]

Ahhh of course, I have him on ignore so I don't waste my time.

[Daytr]

Gold edged higher breaking through another technicallevel of $1337. What was interesting is that gold broke its short termcorrelation to US equities with the S&P failing to break through the recordhigh of 1850 & hold. Again, reports I read are looking for excuses tojustify the current levels of the US equity markets. This is the old pump &dump & it’s been used time & time again over the years to suck inretail investors so the brokers & hedge funds can on-sell their positions.Quote of the day comes from Reuters, "We'renot being aggressive, since valuations aren't spectacular here, but thiscertainly isn't a time to run to cash," said Rex Macey, chief investmentofficer at Wilmington Trust in Atlanta, Georgia. How I interpret this is, it’sexactly the time to run to cash & possibly some gold. When do you ever hear a broker or investment manager say to the market, now is the time to be in cash?

The Ukrainian power struggle continues with the balance tipping towards the West with the help of a promised IMF bailout & support of Europe & the US. Russia's offers are being politely snubbed by the new regime, however I suspect there will be a few turns yet in this saga before we know the outcome. Debt concerns for the Ukraine will also be headlining for months & years to come as their sovereign debt is around four times their reserve base. To put that into perspective however, the Ukrainian debt is the equivalent of one month of US QE, when the tap was fully open or circa $85 billion.

So where to for gold? It’s had a stellar run being up 16 of the last 21 trading days & put on some $80 in that same time frame. Resistance sits at $1360 & then major resistance at $1420, where gold's previous bounce failed & it then returned to the $1180 lows. So why did it fail last time & is there anything different this time? It failed as the physical buying ran out of steam, India was in the midst of putting in place heavy duties on gold imports, the West was offloading ETF positions & Hedge-funds had an appetite to short via Comex. Producers also joined the party with some hedging seen. We are again likely to see Chinese buying stall & in fact we are already seeing that with the China domestic price having a discount rather than a premium. ETFs however have shown some appetite to buy albeit relatively small. Speculators have cut shorts dramatically & recently have probably had the biggest influence on the POG. So we may see gold start to stall also, however I very much doubt there is the same appetite to short gold particularly, as the equity markets are looking precarious. Producers may put in place some more hedging, however at the current levels would prove foolhardy in my opinion, as the position could actually create financial strain on the company if gold moves alot higher in the months to come. My view, is that just as gold starts to runout of steam in the coming weeks; it will be India that will come to the rescue, with a reduction in gold import duties sometime in March/April. US equity markets will also falter & this to will prove supportive for gold.

Nothing goes up in a straight line; however gold's resurgence has only just begun in my opinion.

An interesting video interview with the CEO of Sandstorm at the BMO conferencein Florida. It seems finance may be far more available to miners in 2014 than in 2013 particularly from Private Equity.

http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/BMO-Metals--Mining-2014/567/2014-02-25/Sandstorm-Looking-To-Invest-$350m-CEO

[skid]

The Ukrainian power struggle---who needs a war when you have the IMF and world bank..