Gold

[Daytr]

Actually I am more saying that the period of time isn't long enough. I think for a forecaster to be worth their salt they need to have been through several cycles of the market & been accurate more often than not through both bull & bear cycles.

Haha very true. On a long enough time line, everyone is right

[Skol]

Hey BC, I wouldn't be surprised to see further selling from whoever is trying to trigger another gold type slam. They will either give it another go or retreat & cover, however I would suggest they won't be giving up just yet. The $1275/80 area is quite key imo.

Conspiracy theory time.

The FT have a far more informed and intelligent explanation.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d0299...#axzz2z1ZJ7M5u

[Bobcat.]

Not so bearish. A buy target about $30 less than current market?

So far the higher low of 1290 is holding.

[JBmurc]

By John Ficenec

6:00AM BST 10 Apr 2014

Telegraph

1. China credit bubble – Is it a new economic model? Or the emperor’s new clothes? The economy is slowing and the central bank is attempting to rein in loose monetary policy by allowing bad loans to default.
2. IPO fever – Professional investors always exit at the top and it is no coincidence we have a record number of overvalued companies listing on stock markets.
3. Technology valuations – Companies that have only been around for a few years, barely make a profit, and are valued at billions of pounds? That’s almost evidence enough that people have taken leave of their senses.
4. Markets don’t rise forever – Studies show that the average length of a bull market was just over three years, with the longest bull market being about five years. From the lows in March 2009, we are now more than five years into a bull market.
5. End of easy money – For five years every time the markets have wobbled more money has been pumped into the economy, but that can’t go on for ever, the US and China are both tightening monetary policy at the same time.
6. Bitcoin – This is a symptom not a cause, the rise of a currency backed only by the trust of those who use it is evidence that central banks have destroyed faith in the monetary system through a concerted period of devaluation.
7. Gold – It was written off at the start of the year, but has risen by 8pc during the past three months as investors seek a safe haven, easily outpacing the FTSE 100, which has fallen by 1.3pc.
8. Credit markets – Years of low interest rates in advanced economies have encouraged global investors to seek higher yields in fast-growing developing countries. Credit investors are always much better at pricing risk than equity investors.
9. Earnings misses – There are signs the five year run of growing profits is coming to an end. We have had big earnings misses right across the sectors. Oil giant shell issued its first profit warning in 10 years, engine maker Rolls-Royce warned on profits, along with banking giant Citigroup, Pearson, the owner of the financial times, and online retailer Amazon.
10. Commodity market – Another sign of the end to easy money is falling commodity prices. Iron, oil and copper are all cheaper than they were at the start of the year
Investors have been piling into equities to get a better return as loose monetary policy has crushed interest rates around the world. But in the race for returns many have forgotten how to price risk; for these 10 reasons the coming nine months could prove to be a painful reminder.

Would like to be hold a fair share of BEAR.asx soon enough

[Bobcat.]

But Goldman Sucs are market manipulators who publish one thing and do the opposite for their bigger clients. They are not in the business of keeping other investors well informed or doing anyone else a favour with accurate forecasts we can profit from. If you don't believe that, have a look at their track record - e.g. their forecasts last Dec and Jan when the price of gold and digger stocks were rising.

You/we can make more money taking a position contrary to their advice.

[Skol]

Gold Seen Losing 22% by Westpac’s Smirk to End Year at $1,025


By Glenys Sim Apr 15, 2014 5:12 PM GMT+1200

Gold will decline 22 percent through 2014 to end the year at $1,025 an ounce as the U.S. Federal Reserve scales back stimulus and inflation remains subdued, according to Westpac Banking Corp.

Bullion is going to underperform other commodities as the U.S. central bank reduces the bond purchases, Justin Smirk, the second most-accurate gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years, told reporters in Singapore. Prices will drop to $1,175 by the end of June and $1,090 at the end of September, said Smirk, senior economist at the Sydney-based bank.

While gold ended a 12-year bull run in 2013 as the Fed prepared to reduce monthly bond-buying, prices have rebounded this year after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and mixed U.S. economic data boosted demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week reaffirmed a forecast for lower prices over 2014, and Morgan Stanley predicted four quarters of losses for bullion.

“We’re not in a high-risk environment anymore,” said Smirk, referring to the global financial crisis. “Underlying demand for gold comes under pressure when the prices get high.”

Bullion for immediate delivery traded 0.6 percent lower at $1,320.31 at 12:52 p.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. It last traded below $1,025 in October 2009.

[JBmurc]

Gold Seen Losing 22% by Westpac’s Smirk to End Year at $1,025


By Glenys Sim Apr 15, 2014 5:12 PM GMT+1200

Gold will decline 22 percent through 2014 to end the year at $1,025 an ounce as the U.S. Federal Reserve scales back stimulus and inflation remains subdued, according to Westpac Banking Corp.

Bullion is going to underperform other commodities as the U.S. central bank reduces the bond purchases, Justin Smirk, the second most-accurate gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years, told reporters in Singapore. Prices will drop to $1,175 by the end of June and $1,090 at the end of September, said Smirk, senior economist at the Sydney-based bank.

While gold ended a 12-year bull run in 2013 as the Fed prepared to reduce monthly bond-buying, prices have rebounded this year after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and mixed U.S. economic data boosted demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week reaffirmed a forecast for lower prices over 2014, and Morgan Stanley predicted four quarters of losses for bullion.

“We’re not in a high-risk environment anymore,” said Smirk, referring to the global financial crisis. “Underlying demand for gold comes under pressure when the prices get high.”

Bullion for immediate delivery traded 0.6 percent lower at $1,320.31 at 12:52 p.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. It last traded below $1,025 in October 2009.

As the saying goes when the banks are telling you to sell is a good sign to buy>>>

[Skol]

As the saying goes when the banks are telling you to sell is a good sign to buy>>>

Be my guest.

SPDR Gold Trust down 8 tonnes.

[Bobcat.]

Price of Gold is flat and unaffected by Yellen's 'inspiring' comments and a spike in the US Equity markets. Interesting. A new bottom at 1290USD?

[Daytr]

Gold was relatively subdued in the last 24 hours, taking a breather after a large volume of selling was forced through the market the night prior. I suspect we haven't seen the last of that selling, as why push so much volume through at once, unless you are trying to make an impact? Stocks rallied hard & it was the Nikkei leading the charge up 3% after it was confirmed the state pension fund would continue to buy stocks. Whilst this is not unusual, if its a decision to support a market rather than that of good investment then there's a problem. If you are a buyer in a market why publicize what you will do so unless its because you are trying to support the position you already hold? Meanwhile China released its growth stats. coming in slightly ahead of expectations & this again boosted global stocks. China's stats. were always going to reduce it's simple math & a growth rate (reliable data?) of 7.4% means the Chinese economy will more than double in 10 years. Not bad particularly compared with current Western World growth rates. It was interesting to note that a number of DOW listed stocks released disappointing earnings after the close & BOA even posted a quarterly loss. So with the long weekend approaching expect markets to be quiet although I wouldn't rule out another bout of selling of gold tonight whilst the market is thin & traders have one eye on a holiday.