Since March it looks like a bit of a wedge or pennant forming in gold & yes Moosie lower highs, however shallow lows or even flat to slightly upward sloping. This will eventually cause a breakout sooner rather than later & as the range is now getting quite tight. Gold imo if it was going to break & re-test the $1180 lows then it should have done so last week, instead it bounced. Potentially there is now a double bottom locked in at $1280, $100 higher than the lows & previous double bottom. We could retest that again & soon, however it should now act as reasonable support & being the 3rd attempt it should either confirm the level as a higher bottom or smash through it. Generally the outcome is pretty black & white on the 3rd attempt in my experience.
Equities up, gold basically unchanged & surprisingly even the Russian index was up the 1st day of trading post the expansion of sanctions. I notice that Merkel & Putin are looking to meet to discuss European gas prices, so Putin's own financial stick will come to bear on European energy prices & in turn I'm sure be telling Europe to apply pressure on the US in regards its sanctions. As mentioned before its fine for the US to apply sanctions, as its not them that will suffer the economic hit. I suspect we won't see gold under $1300 for long & I still hold my target for $1320 later in the week. Cheers Daytr
Originally Posted by moosie_900
Nice bounce off the downward trendline confirmed today.
Lower highs...
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
America is just slicker at masquerading it--Conflict of interest is so common that no one sees the forest for the trees.
Russia is ''straight up'' corrupt -just like their ''straight up'' invasion---America is just more behind the scenes(in a kind of hypocritical way)
Their kind of invasion (and response to this invasion)is different. It involves CIA agents-back room deals-and the World Bank.
America is just slicker at masquerading it--Conflict of interest is so common that no one sees the forest for the trees.
Russia is ''straight up'' corrupt -just like their ''straight up'' invasion---America is just more behind the scenes(in a kind of hypocritical way)
Their kind of invasion (and response to this invasion)is different. It involves CIA agents-back room deals-and the World Bank.
This might be fudging figures a bit but its from a reliable source. Give it 10 years & China's economy will dwarf that of the US imo.
China will become the world's largest economy by the end of the year
UNTIL 1890 China was the world’s largest economy, before America surpassed it. By the end of 2014 China is on track to reclaim its crown. Comparing economic output is tricky: exchange rates get in the way. Simply converting GDP from renminbi to dollars at market rates may not reflect the true cost of living. Bread and beer may be cheaper in one country than another, for example. To account for these differences, economists make adjustments based on a comparable basket of goods and services across the globe, so-called purchasing-power parity (PPP). New data released on April 30th from the International Comparison Programme, a part of the UN, calculated the cost of living in 199 countries in 2011. On this basis, China’s PPP exchange rate is now higher than economists had previously estimated using data from the previous survey in 2005: a whopping 20% higher. So China, which had been forecast to overtake America in 2019 by the IMF, will be crowned the world's pre-eminent country by the end of this year according to The Economist’s calculations. The American Century ends, and the Pacific Century begins.
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
That's assuming the place doesn't split apart, the communist party doesn't implode, ethnic cleansing, 500 riots a day, the world's worst environmental disasters by far, atmospheric and heavy metal pollution, corruption, and emigration don't bring them down first.
How's China gonna lead the world when it's incapable of constructing and operating an aircraft carrier, or building a reliable commercial jet? lol
Got to hand it to them though, they make good bicycles.
Dictatorships can last a while, but it's dramatic when they fall, let me know if you see a queue outside the Chinese embassy wanting to get into China, because there's millions wanting to get out.
As suspected gold is now retesting the key support area of $1275/80 where a double bottom has been formed. Since the bounce last week back over $1300 gold has retraced slowly but steadily back toward this area again. Gold's direction from here should be fairly decisive in one direction or another & key will be the payrolls number due out of the US tonight. For once the market is upbeat about the number & this could well work positively for gold if the number disappoints. In saying that, the market is probably right to be up-beat as it would be fairly typical following the weather affected recent data that there would be a bounce or catch up in employment. I tend to find no matter what, the old adage of buying the rumor, selling the fact holds in a lot of cases & this could well be the case for equities & the opposite for gold unless the number smashes expectations.
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
I'm still picking a 1280/1380 consolidation range through to early July when (as per seasonal patterns) Gold tends to lift higher through to October.
Somewhat concerning however is the fact that 1280 has been tested three times now with lower highs each time..and it looks like it's about to be tested once again. That doesn't bode well for an momentum shift and break to the upside. Tonight's announcement would need to provide a lot of spark for Gold to break through what is now a two month Bear trend.
Discl: still holding quite a few Aussie PM digger stocks (yes, with most at a paper loss)
To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.
Looking at the daily chart you can see that it's likely the breakout will be downwards. A breakout continues in the direction of the original trend MOST of the time, if it goes below about 1275, we're liable to see much lower.
Improved job numbers for the USA did drop the PoG for an hour or two but really not much at all (to 1280USD) and then their MoM Factory Orders came in lower than expected at +1.1% (against a forecast of +1.4%) which was all it took to trigger a significant spike in the demand for gold and silver. Nice to see for those of us holding digger stocks.
Let's see how this momentum shift now develops through next week.
BC
To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.
Originally Posted by moosie_900
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