Gold

[Skol]

Cheers for that Skol. I hope your copy of Extraordinary Popular Delusions is a first edition signed by the author

I've always been very interested in the psychology behind the market/bubbles so will definitely be ordering a few books soon!

My pleasure.
Extraordinary Popular Delusions is a good read but deals with historic manias like The Crusades, the Magnetisers, the Alchymists, Witch Mania, Duels and Ordeals, Slow Poisoners, the Mississippi Scheme and the South Sea Bubble. A worthwhile addition to your library that proves manias have been around forever.

[Skol]

According to internet sources there's around 27,000 tonnes of gold in India and China.

If that's true then the losses since 2011 amount to $638,106,660,000

Add to that the central bank losses of $600 billion.

Well done 'very clever' chinese, indians and central banksters, I salute you.

Looks like we're headed for a test of $1200, if this fails will it cause the Indians and chinese to panic?

[Bobcat.]

Looks like we're headed for a test of $1200, if this fails will it cause the Indians and chinese to panic?

Why would they panic, Skol? Unlike Westerners they buy gold less for quick fire capital gain, and more to celebrate harvest, weddings, and as a long term investment and inheritance for their children. They won't mind if it gets cheaper this year...they will see that as an opportunity to buy up more, faster-tracking the transition of Gold from West to East.

Even though you've been kicked off Hot Copper, are you still able to see this post?

http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single....8#.U4e0HygVrHg

Sometime soon, the price of Gold will touch it's long-term upward trend-line. End of June is my guess, about the same time that seasonal spikes kick in to coincide with July-Oct Indian gold buying for Weddings and Harvests.

[Skol]

Why would they panic, Skol? Unlike Westerners they buy gold less for quick fire capital gain, and more to celebrate harvest, weddings, and as a long term investment and inheritance for their children. They won't mind if it gets cheaper this year...they will see that as an opportunity to buy up more, faster-tracking the transition of Gold from West to East.

Even though you've been kicked off Hot Copper, are you still able to see this post?

http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single....8#.U4e0HygVrHg

Sometime soon, the price of Gold will touch it's long-term upward trend-line. End of June is my guess, about the same time that seasonal spikes kick in to coincide with July-Oct Indian gold buying for Weddings and Harvests.

I haven't been kicked off HC, the moderators aren't keen on gold contrarians so limit me to 3 posts a day, hilarious isn't it considering they promote free speech on their home page. I can tell from the posts the goldbugs are getting nervous, there's a fair bit of hand-wringing going on.

You honestly believe the asian mind is that different to the western mind when it comes to losses? If they panic it will start the capitulation phase which I've been expecting, but I think it'll start below $1200, the gold indices are within a smidgeon of their lows, a fall will mean unplumbed depths.

The west to east scenario is a load of goldbug bollocks, it's a 3 year long asian gold mania which is already subsiding as they lick their wounds.

Goldbugs have been calling for the bottom every $50 all the way down from $1920, but it's a long way off yet, their's no difference between gold and orange juice or pork bellies, although not many books have been written about orange juice or pork bellies.

WW3 which was supposed to have started in the Ukraine has amounted to nothing bigger than the Hatfields and the McCoys, as I predicted, so goldbugs have had to revert to their hardy annual conspiracy theories about hyperinflation and the Fed 'manipulation'.

I don't suppose the very educated central banksters have to worry about losing $600 billion, they'll be in cushy public servant jobs.

[Skol]

HC "limiting" you to 3 posts a day? Lol, I love it Skol.

Digger over in NZO thinks oil is a "special" commodity as well. I don't get why people get sentimentally attached to commodities? Can someone seriously explain the psychology to me (I am serious here!)?

I'm currently hard into LNG.AX and expect it to perform well, but I am not wedded to LNG as the "future" (even though it is a cleaner energy sourse and more efficient than coal). If the story changes, I'd dump the stock, not hold onto it because of its perceived value.

Well done with LNG moosie, I've been watching it, sure is spiking up, hope you make a fortune.

Goldbug psychology is mostly wedded to conspiracy theories, in the West anyway, I reckon the asian gold mania is just herd instinct. Conspiracy theorists congratulate themselves on uncovering despicable government and bank plots that defraud them of what's rightfully theirs, they're penetrating the plotters deceptions and combatting the forces of darkness.

Many conspiracy theorists are mentally ill, they claim secret knowledge trying to make sense of what is a complicated world, the rest of us are the brainwashed sheeple. lol

I view it as a cult.

[Daytr]

Gold is struggling whilst equities in the US break records at a time when the economic growth is at its worst in the last three years. Go figure...
What gives me a lot of comfort is that the latest demand statistics out of China displayed a massive increase in gold jewelry demand although net gold demand was pretty much flat. Jewelry demand is the sort of demand you want, its far more sustainable than investment demand, i.e. bars & is far less likely to come back on the market. Its also a very good barometer of the growing wealth of the Chinese middle class. If this sort of growth in jewelry demand is sustained or even half that increase, it is a massive factor in the gold S&D equation. It also confirms to me what we are seeing now & in the short term is just noise & its only a matter of time before the increased Asian gold consumption translates to much higher prices for gold.

[Bobcat.]

BC, you still banking on a triple bottom here?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Brecht/2014...Your-Risk.html

If it goes low enough to test 1180USD again, I would say that's bearish. However, tax-write-offs are unlikely to be so severe this year (compared to 2012 and 2013) and so I expect they'll produce less downward pressure on the price of Gold and other PMs.

I'm picking a rebound off a new base (shoulder) where Gold touches its long-term trendline, and we are getting close to that now...somewhere between 1210 and 1240USD from what I can see on the charts. Then we'd be crazy not to ride the momentum shift. How long that upward shift lasts will of course depend on whether the Bear's downward trendline (currently sitting at just under 1300USD) holds firm. Seasonal buying may have to kick in before that's busted.

Yes, trading to it.

BC

[Skol]

Gold is struggling whilst equities in the US break records at a time when the economic growth is at its worst in the last three years. Go figure...
What gives me a lot of comfort is that the latest demand statistics out of China displayed a massive increase in gold jewelry demand although net gold demand was pretty much flat. Jewelry demand is the sort of demand you want, its far more sustainable than investment demand, i.e. bars & is far less likely to come back on the market. Its also a very good barometer of the growing wealth of the Chinese middle class. If this sort of growth in jewelry demand is sustained or even half that increase, it is a massive factor in the gold S&D equation. It also confirms to me what we are seeing now & in the short term is just noise & its only a matter of time before the increased Asian gold consumption translates to much higher prices for gold.

Daytr talking his books again. From Bloomberg 27/5
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China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell in April amid signs that investment demand waned in the the world’s largest gold consumer.

Net imports totaled 65.4 metric tons last month, compared with 80.6 tons in March and 75.9 tons a year ago, according to calculations by Bloomberg News based on data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department yesterday. Exports to Hong Kong from China fell to 15.4 tons in April from 25.3 tons in March, the department said in a separate statement. Mainland China doesn’t publish such data.

Lower demand from China, which surpassed India as the biggest gold consumer last year, may weigh on prices that have increased 6.8 percent this year, partly on haven demand amid tension in Ukraine. As holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds contract to the least since 2009, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the precious metal to extend declines after a 28 percent drop in 2013, the most in three decades

[Bobcat.]

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China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell in April amid signs that investment demand waned in the the world’s largest gold consumer.

Skol, I think you'll find that as Shanghai ramps up, Hong Kong's gold trading with China will continue to slide. But then, you know that already don't you.

[Bobcat.]

I've found that quite a few times it's smart to adopt a Contrarian view on what industry pundits are expecting of Gold in the week ahead. More often than not, they are (collectively) wrong.

For this week, over 60% are bearish. There's therefore a good chance that Gold will end the week higher.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-05-30...Next-Week.html