Gold

**Bobcat.** · 06-07-2014, 07:58 PM

Extremists can be very right about the direction even if they are wrong about the level to which the price will rise and by when. I agree with Bo Polny to the extent that there is a long term upward trend for Gold now in play. As to how far its price will lift, nobody knows...but lift it will, and for good reason.

**Bobcat.** · 07-07-2014, 09:45 AM

Originally Posted by moosie_900

I thought we were still inside the long term downward trend channel until $1330-$1350 was broken BC?

That's medium term over less than three years - have a look at the seven year pattern.

**Skol** · 07-07-2014, 06:32 PM

Originally Posted by Bobcat.

That's medium term over less than three years - have a look at the seven year pattern.

Here it is, the seven year pattern, nothing to get excited about.

**pietrade** · 08-07-2014, 10:26 AM

Originally Posted by Skol

Here it is, the seven year pattern, nothing to get excited about.

Great graph. It looks like the time-line of a 'dead cat bouncing'. A picture is worth a 1000 words. THUD!?

**Bobcat.** · 08-07-2014, 10:36 AM

That chart doesn't look to have a range of 7 years to me, Skol. Do the math.

Canadian MoM Building permits were up last month a whopping 14% against an expected rise of only 3%. It's confirming a housing bubble. Trouble is that CAN's economic growth cannot support the bubble. Its Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), measuring the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada, came in at 47% against an expected 53%. A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

As housing prices rise, so does inflation...and yet given the massive and growing public & private debt levels, any raising of interest rates will drive Canada into recession without the economic growth to absorb that business cost.

This is a real and sizeable dilemma that the USA, Britain and other western civilisations will struggle with from here onward. Not looking good for the remainder of this year. It's no wonder that Gold and Silver are holding up so well. We have not seen the last of their bullish run.

Expecting a bust through 1330 before this weekend. Trading to it.

BC

**Bobcat.** · 08-07-2014, 10:37 AM

Originally Posted by pietrade

Great graph. It looks like the time-line of a 'dead cat bouncing'. A picture is worth a 1000 words. THUD!?

More like a consolidation over the past 12 months, ahead of a bullish seasonal run north to continue Gold's longer term trend.

**Skol** · 08-07-2014, 11:26 AM

Bobcat says:
That chart doesn't look to have a range of 7 years to me, Skol. Do the math.

It's 7 years all right, pretty messy and no end in sight. 1330 before this weekend, good luck with that one, more like 1280.

**Daytr** · 08-07-2014, 04:11 PM

This is from bank report I receive. Perhaps it will be the Chinese that pushes gold through $1330.
PreciousMetals:We’ve had a soft start to the week as the complexwas offered on the opening in Asia in spite of buying from the Far East. Goldwas performing very well last week, so the source of yesterday’s early weaknessis difficult to pinpoint. Prices however recovered during US hours to closeonly marginally below last Friday’s close. We do know that the spec position onthe CME is now the longest it has been since December of 2012, showing a netlength of 12.5 million ounces, with open interest above 400K contracts. Thisgoes to show that the market has become rather friendly to gold on the highs,and the bulls are facing some positioning headwinds. However, with Chinesebuying evident at these levels, we still feel comfortable playing the marketfrom the long side and only a breach of $1,300/oz will make us pause and have are-think.