Gold

[Daytr]

Gold ticking up nicely to $1314. I suspect there are some very large short positions still in play and if we see a break of $1320/30 area there is likely to be a made scramble to cover shooting gold much higher.

[JBmurc]

Gold ticking up nicely to $1314. I suspect there are some very large short positions still in play and if we see a break of $1320/30 area there is likely to be a made scramble to cover shooting gold much higher.

Might have to lift my RMS bid ..darn ..

[Skol]

The 'very clever chinese' that are buying up the world's gold are sending ships and spies to the USA to try and work out how to operate an aircaft carrier, so they can learn how to launch and retrieve aircraft from the Americans who have been doing it since before WW2.

hahaha

While goldbugs stew in their own juice the bull market is unstoppable, with 80% of the 77 S&P companies that have reported so far beating market expectations according to Bloomberg.

[Daytr]

Moosie, if POG is very negative in the short term, why is it not dropping like a stone? They obviously made a good call to short gold at $1904, however it was hardly rocket science that gold was in a bubble at that time. One call doesn't make them a genius either.

[Skol]

China could be on the edge of a bust, they can't have heard of the skyscraper index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...p-economy.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index

[Hoop]

Skol isn't the only one still predicting blood all over the floor...

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Arora_corne...rs-Part-1.html

Moosie, if POG is very negative in the short term, why is it not dropping like a stone? They obviously made a good call to short gold at $1904, however it was hardly rocket science that gold was in a bubble at that time. One call doesn't make them a genius either.

Yep Daytr..They are not geniuses ....Their TA chart is biased...They obviously have a negative gold bias and they have tried to convince the public with their point of view with their nice looking chart....(Refer below)

The rising part of their chart is OK (Bull market) but they obviously believe the Gold market is still in a bear market and have omitted the breaking of the bear cycle primary trend line...

This is a big TA omission!!!!!.. No Chartist would never ever not draw in a primary trend line or trend channel with the cycle unless it is so volatile that you can't draw a trend line requiring 3 touches to be confirmed..

With Gold's bear cycle ...There a few alternative ways that the primary downtrend line for the bear cycle could be drawn in.....
1... from the high in OCT 2012 at $us1792 (last high point before the primary uptrend broke) leave it unadjusted (5 touches) it gets broken at the end of June with the golds dip recently it retest the top of that broken line and it failed (bullish) to re-enter below that line to reestablish the downtrend...If you are totally a bear Chartist , you can cling to the last available straw in the empty haybarn and argue your TA case using a log scale chart, candlesticks, together with a margin of error, to prove the downtrend is "maybe" still intact.
2...Adjustment of the Primary down trend in Feb 2013 high point (6 touches) which got broken in Feb 2014 (Bullish).

The next piece of bias license Arora uses is the mention and drawing in of the recent symmetrical triangle....It is not a symmetrical triangle yet and progbably wont be... so not valid..therefore no information and statistics associated with the symmetrical triangle pattern can be used here either.

The sloping Fibonacci Retracement lines used here is a method that I'm not sure what Arora is attempting to achieve....The base line is drawn differently too (to suit the bias?)..
Using the conventional method... the Fibronacci retracement from golds low point (start of the bull cycle steep uptrend) to golds top reversal point ~1900 shows the Xmas 2013 bottom 1188 at a spooky 61.8% retracement..which indicates a theoretical spot on natural (planet Earth) behavioural bottom and reversal point (bullish event)....

The momo crowd.....Opinionated Rubbish...If the chartist showed the momentum indicator, it would have proven no basis of fact

[Skol]

Look out below, here it goes.

$1296
$20.76

XGD down 4.6%

[Hoop]

Daytr, I would not call Arora biased as it has both buy and sell calls, both in the past and into the future. Not exactly Marc Faber now is he?

Hoop, I agree with you on the omission of the bear trendline break, but cannot agree with you on the symmetrical triangle one. It's pretty clear a decision point is coming on a medium term basis, and the short-term indicators are showing big indecision right now (RSI is at nearly an even 50 I believe). Whether it is a continuation pattern of the downtrend or not remains to be seen. With global markets still soaring and thr final, mass selloff of sellers still to come, I'm going to go with the more pain to come scenario here...

What final mass of sellers?....Its just the continuation of textbook signature showing the typical bull/ bear fights after each cyclic reversals as I outlined earlier....it's now the bear's turn again
Moosie....the best of luck with your short term flip flop stuff ...you'll need it, as short term investing is a very tough discipline to master...

[Daytr]

Moose, I didn't say they were biased, I just questioned their credentials. Anyway Moose thanks for posting, its always good to hear all views. Nice post Hoop, good to get another TA perspective.

[Hoop]

but cannot agree with you on the symmetrical triangle one. It's pretty clear a decision point is coming on a medium term basis, ...

Moosie I said Arora is bias and its blatantly obvious...I suggest you do some learning on what criteria is needed to form a symmetrical Triangle chart pattern..then you will see one part of the bias