Gold

[Daytr]

Well it didn't take 36 hours, more like 28 before equities turned negative & gold is ticking up. Europe opening down & gold back above $1310 for the first time today. Four full trading sessions for equities to hold up & the S&P not close below the 100 DMA or negative for the ytd for that matter. My money says it doesn't. Gold to challenge & hold $1320 this week IMO.

[Bobcat.]

Yep, I'm loaded up with 50% of my stocks now in either gold or Bear.asx. With geopolitical and seasonal pressures to the upside, I'm confident that we will see the PoG now lift well to retest $1380usd this month and next month punch through $1400usd.

With inflation looming, and the Fed, Bank of England and others very reluctant to see interest rates rise thus increasing the burden of the cost of their very large debts, the sky's the limit for Gold and Silver.

[Skol]

The moon launch has been cancelled due to lack of interest.

[Bobcat.]

Ha ha :-)

Yes, we may have to wait a week or so for the usual late August kick higher through September, which I'm picking will happen again this year. Even though Indian harvests look like they'll be a bit lighter, wedding feasts continue and the Chinese are still buying. Now all we need is for people to lose confidence in the fiat currencies of those countries laden with debt...and we'll have the perfect storm. It's brewing - not if but when.

[Daytr]

Markets were a bit of a yawn overnight to be honest. Equities were slightly negative & gold was relatively unchanged. Couple points of interests, I see banks are trying to push out the implementation of the Volker rule some seven years, which suggest they are still laden with positions within hedge funds & private equity. Also there are further signs that the US employment market is tightening & the market continually spins this as a positive when its not, not by a long chalk. Low paying & part time jobs have grown rapidly whereas skilled workers have left the workforce in droves. The participation rate at 30 year lows & the breakdown of the jobs data verifies this. It also backs up the data on capital spending by corporate which again has failed to appear. To attract these skilled workers back to the workforce wages are going to have to go up. To attract more burger flippers when that market has already been tapped pretty much dry, will take higher wages. What is one of the biggest drivers of inflation? Wages. Personally I don't think its necessarily a bad thing, however combine that with all the cash that is sloshing around, the inflation genie that the Fed is so afraid of may just about to be unleashed. All their fear of deflation may just create the opposite. The Fed would have to try & counter this with higher interest rates sooner rather than later, which ain't going to do the equity markets much good. Something to watch anyway IMO.

[Skol]

As I've said for years, the party's over, weakening demand from China and India.
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Weakening demand from China and India, which account for half of global consumption, may limit increases in bullion prices which advanced 9 percent this year on increasing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Usage in China dropped 19 percent in the first half as investors bought fewer bars and coins. Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley retained import curbs in his annual budget last month.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-rupee-1-.html

[Daytr]

There has been a bit of discussion of this on HC & Gartman has recently written a bit about this. The obvious outcome & relevant here, is that Aussie gold is up & up substantially in the last few weeks. It is a headwind, however gold has held or is slightly higher, when it probably should be $50 lower if you isolate the impact of the USD, however as I have been trying to convey in my posts, gold does not trade in isolation.

[Daytr]

Gold & global equities are higher with equities generally outperforming & the indices that have been hardest hit of late, such as the DAX rebounding the most. What was interesting despite a number of US companies missing their earnings estimates & retail sales being a shocker, the equity markets rallied led mainly by the tech & bio-tech laden NASDAQ. From reports I have read the renewed enthusiasm for stocks is somewhat based on the outlook on rates & the FED may not raise rates as soon as that has been envisaged. Keep an eye on labor costs in the coming months, something I'm sure the Fed will be doing. The USD is generally weaker & gold is correspondingly stronger, nothing really to rave about. Will equities continue their rebound? My view is nothing has changed, in fact some data supports the view that the US economy is actually slowing & PE ratios hence equity valuations are still too high considering the economic backdrop. As we get further into the seasonal strong period for gold, it sits well poised for an assault on nearby technical levels that I think will be easily taken out. Its $100 from here at $1420 where the real test will come in Q4 2014

[Daytr]

Thanks Moose, we can all pack up & go home now.
IMO the timing of rising rates is somewhat important & I am fairly confident the market will be well ahead of when the Fed does act.
In saying all that what really matters IMO is when they do raise rates, why are they raising them? What is driving the lift from virtually zero? If its growth & an economy that is heading towards capacity then all well & good. However what if it's inflation with no or little growth ? IMV this is quite a likely outcome.

[Bobcat.]

Yes, the Equities market correction over the past month does appear fairly controlled and relatively sedate.