Gold

[Bobcat.]

Here are the seasonal trends for gold (5yr, 15yr and 30yr), and yes we are overdue for a lift (tonight?). Since it's late starting this year, I'm gonna stay long for at least 6 weeks.

There's some resistance at 1286.50usd (which IMO we will get through tonight) but the more significant resistance is at 1320usd. When that gets busted, the bulls will be back in control.

COMM-Gold-Annual-Seasonal-Cycle-08082014-lg.jpg

Discl: have this week been buying back into OGC, EVN, BDR and yes even SBM.

[Skol]

Seasonality patterns are different this year, August is normally a good month for gold but it's down this month, albeit by $10.
The last August loss was 2009.

July 2014 was also down, a month that normally shows a gain.

[Daytr]

I saw this announced today by Modi that all Indians will be given a bank account, a debit card & an overdraft facility.
My immediate reaction was this isn't good for gold & it may not be, however after more thought it could also be a positive.
I suppose it will depend on how culturally gold is ingrained vs its use as monetary exchange.
Structurally this is not a simple thing to roll out as 75% of villages don't have a bank branch & I'm not sure how many peasant Indian farmers have ready access to the internet. It could actually give them more money to spend on gold as they won't be paying extortionate interest rates as they do currently & they will have more credit available to them. It will certainly be interesting on how it unfolds.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/wh...allenge-582412

[Daytr]

Well it is Thursday BC & we know what that means. �� Its looking good so far, just traded $1290.

Here are the seasonal trends for gold (5yr, 15yr and 30yr), and yes we are overdue for a lift (tonight?). Since it's late starting this year, I'm gonna stay long for at least 6 weeks.

There's some resistance at 1286.50usd (which IMO we will get through tonight) but the more significant resistance is at 1320usd. When that gets busted, the bulls will be back in control.

COMM-Gold-Annual-Seasonal-Cycle-08082014-lg.jpg

Discl: have this week been buying back into OGC, EVN, BDR and yes even SBM.

[Skol]

Thursday night, rally night.

hahahaha

Been looking at the crystal ball? Hard to believe you're a gold 'expert' with 30 years working for influential multi-nationals in glamorous world capitals .

[Daytr]

And yet, gold is up & its Thursday night. Go figure.

Thursday night, rally night.

hahahaha

Been looking at the crystal ball? Hard to believe you're a gold 'expert' with 30 years working for influential multi-nationals in glamorous world capitals .

[Skol]

And yet, gold is up & its Thursday night. Go figure.

Sometimes it goes up, but mostly it goes down.

[Daytr]

Not in 2014 it hasn't Skol. Do you remember what year we are in? Skol, you are sooooo 2013. Haha

Sometimes it goes up, but mostly it goes down.

[Skol]

In a recent posting on Appleinsider.com, an RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani was quoted saying he expects iPhone 6 sales to reach 10 million during its launch weekend and 75 million units by year-end, a potential of more than 66,000 ounces of gold.
---------------------------------------

JB,

66,000 ounces? It's a drop in the bucket, the world produces 290,000 ounces of gold every day of the year.

[Daytr]

I just posted this on HC in regards gold's recent poor performance.

Re gold demand, you can't argue with the numbers, its been soft. I think it’s fair to say there is probably a hangover on the demand side from the rampant buying we saw out of China seen last year. Also contributing you have a weaker Yuan, Indian demand has been impacted by duties & what looks like a poor harvest. We also have ETFs acting as supply albeit small, but it has failed to swing net positive for any reasonable period of time. Although there are still issues in the US I think it’s silly to argue that things are worse on a consumer & corporate front, in fact quite the opposite. However I still feel there are issues they need to face in regards rising government debt, inflated markets, particularly the bond market which is saturated & when they raise interest rates. Most people seem to think that the Fed has plenty of time before needing to raise rates. If that's the case where does that leave equity markets? Going higher with even higher multiples? Earnings growth doesn't justify the current PEs if you ask me, let alone higher multiples. I also think markets are under estimating the risk of inflation, forcing the Fed to act quicker than perhaps they would like.

Europe is still in deep trouble, although there are pockets of hope. We will obviously know more re the possibility of QE in Europe later in the week. My feel is that markets are going to be disappointed.

Gold has broken some technical levels of late including the 200 DMA & $1275 overnight.There is reasonable support around $1250 or I see it as $1248 (bottom of the wedge)& then major support at $1180 -1200 area.

The only upside overnight is that the AUD also dropped around half a cent or more, offsetting some of the pain for Aussie gold producers.

What I will say is that markets are extremely complacent & IMO are underpricing risk considerably & gold is example of that. You can be dismissive of the Ukraine & ISIS all you like, however they are there & happening & there is a very real chance that one of these or other conflicts goes horribly pear shaped. The market at this point is pretty much pricing that at zero & IMO that is just screaming at me as very wrong on a lot of fronts.

Besides the NASDAQ, US markets are limping albeit it at elevated levels. I called for a correction in late July when the DOW was 17083, it managed to get slightly above those levels but is now again below, S&P not much different. I do get the felling the market wants to see the NASDAQ peak at 5000, whether it does or not is a different matter.

In regards gold demand figures I am confident you will see a tick up & they may have already just begun looking at a few reports, but physical demand should definitely gather momentum in Q4.

Last night’s activity was quite sharp & suggests to me there was some shorting going on & perhaps combined with long liquidation i.e. positions stopped out. China has been known to force prices lower before a buying spree & perhaps with the Shanghai Gold Exchange about to ramp up they could be part of this move lower as that sort of behavior has been seen before in other commodity markets . Although I realize this is just pure supposition on my part.

Patience is key here.