Gold

[Skol]

As I predicted a few years ago, when gold vending machines are installed it's close to the top.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102121208

[BlackPeter]

As I predicted a few years ago, when gold vending machines are installed it's close to the top.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102121208

Hmm - given that the gold price is basically a measure for the level of fear in the investor community am I not sure, whether I expect it to go long term much further down than it currently is (speculative spikes are obviously always possible).

Just looking at the political situation in various islamic countries (ISIS, unrests in Egypt and Morocco, Nigeria), looking at the renewed sable rustling in the Eastern Ukraine, looking at the spread of Ebola in Africa and just wondering what will happen in the medium term with all these basically unrepayable state debts of many western countries.

Sad state of affairs, I am sure there are many more real risks around than worrying about PoG to tank too much further.

Discl: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future (Niels Bohr). DYOR.

[Daytr]

BlackPeter, I don't think Asians see gold as a barometer of fear, they see it as the basis of money.
In my view the world is relatively stable right at this point particularly in what impacts the major economies & that's what drives markets.
That could obviously change at any point, however that's how I see it right now. I think we just hear a lot more about unrest in various parts of the world via the internet than we use to.
What really has driven this latest leg down for gold is the US economy & the FED showing confidence by removing stimulus swiftly & the corresponding rally in the USD. Corporate profits for Q3 have surprised analysts & that's seen equity markets rally back sharply to new highs.
The sharpness of the rallies & for that matter sell off in gold gives me pause & markets are trading similar to what you se when there is about to be a reversal. US equities look like they want to extend further, however they are getting pricey again on PE ratios etc & any softness in future earnings would see valuations look very lofty. So what could impact corporate earnings? A stronger USD & potentially a change in international corporate tax I think are the biggest risks, offset that with lower energy prices & a growing US economy.
Gold will be supported at some point by physical demand & although technically it broke through key support Friday, who are the sellers to take it substantially lower? Shorters? Perhaps, but that's a trade that needs to be covered. Also do you short a market that is already down 40% and around the cost of production? You can, but at you peril. Short term yes gold could be shunted lower, but production will start being curtailed & I would have thought physical demand increase. Not the ideal situation to short.

We will be in for an interesting week & I wouldn't rule out that we are about to see an interim top in equities & corresponding low in gold.

[Hoop]

Posted on 7th October 2014

Good news...the bottom support held (1180).... and in theory, a successful bounce of that support strengthens that support
More good news...could be a triple bottom pattern forming
Even more good news....higher volume usually means a downward breakout won't happen this time*

Bad News...The 15 month old descending triangle pattern has a 64% chance of breaking out through the bottom (below 1180)...Watch the volume, breakouts occur 81% of the time when volume gets low (Bulkowski)*
More bad news...the new bull market cycle got busted when gold went below 1240..and now has to rise above the 1240 and break the triangle top line for any hope the bull still alive...A big ask!!.
Even more bad news....US dollar in a sharp uptrend ... Global money flight back to save havens?

Bad News reigns supreme..

[Skol]

More bad news
------------------
If history is any guide, gold has a long way to fall
The USD is on the way up
Gold mining indexes are tanking
Sentiment - can it get any worse? Probably
US and selected other stockmarkets on the way up
Property on a tear in major cities
Geopolitical events having no effect on the gold price
Interest rate hikes on the horizon
Oil and other commodities out of favour
Chinese and Indian demand down
Technically weak
US economy improving
End of QE
Sales of gold coins down 47% YTD
Central banks buying - biggest contrarian indicator
SPDR GLD volume dropping like a brick
New technology makes recovery easier
Record gold production in 2013
Silver down 68% but gold only down 39%
Sales of investment gold down, an indicator all is not well
Investor psychology pretty much shattered
The apocalypse forecast by goldbugs never happened, it won't either

[stevo1]

More bad news
------------------
If history is any guide, gold has a long way to fall
The USD is on the way up
Gold mining indexes are tanking
Sentiment - can it get any worse? Probably
US and selected other stockmarkets on the way up
Property on a tear in major cities
Geopolitical events having no effect on the gold price
Interest rate hikes on the horizon
Oil and other commodities out of favour
Chinese and Indian demand down
Technically weak
US economy improving
End of QE
Sales of gold coins down 47% YTD
Central banks buying - biggest contrarian indicator
SPDR GLD volume dropping like a brick
New technology makes recovery easier
Record gold production in 2013
Silver down 68% but gold only down 39%
Sales of investment gold down, an indicator all is not well
Investor psychology pretty much shattered
The apocalypse forecast by goldbugs never happened, it won't either

Personally I dont see this as a downside as if and when it is suitable I will buy, but not at the moment. Skol what are you going to do when gold has bottomed?It could be a long way off or quite near.Why are Central banks buying as the price falls obviously they cannot have been listening to you.Why indeed would they want to hold gold at all?A conspiracy theorist may well say they have had a part in its fall so once again I ask you why do they buy this yellow metal????

[BFG]

Down another $6 already in early Asian trading. Looks like confirmarion of a support/resistance switch if it hold this week.

I'm not too hot on the US market though. DJI making new highs but only 52% of companies making new 52 week highs, not the usual 80%+. That suggests an uneven and weak rally on lower volume which may nit be sustainable...

[Skol]

Looks like a horror story today, XGD down over 4% already, a bloodbath.

[BFG]

"When there is blood in the streets..."

I'm watching OGC for a good oversold point and eventual rally. Best of breed imho. Whether it's @ $1.70 or $1.19 (seen last time gold hit $1180) is yet to be seen though!

[Skol]

XGD down 8.24%, an expensive day for gold share afficionados.

Daytr's recent 'picks'.

NST -9.09%
DRM -13.16%