Gold

[Daytr]

Gold broke through critical support of $1180 & has held for 24 hours, however I am let to be convinced this is not a false break. It did this in Dec 2013 & bounced over $200. Perhaps a similar bounce is asking a bit much, although the more recent bounce to $1250 was despite the strength of the USD. What if we see the USD pull back? Its been trading what I would call as parabolically in the last few trading sessions, always a warning sign for me. Equity markets similar & they seemed to stall overnight. Perhaps just taking a breather, but it reminds me of similar times in recent months when equities have just nudged new highs only to plunge.

Gold equities also capitulated in the last few days, but not more than we saw yesterday with this trader stopped out. So I'm a sure there will be a few licking their wounds, so if there is a recovery it may be tentative for a start. However a break back above $1180 could spark short covering & a surge higher.

Many could legitimately argue that this is just a breather before we head lower still.
IMO once a key level is broken it needs to be carried on with sharply as it leaves specs exposed (shorts).
I have been hearing Asian buying stepped back a week or two ago & the thought was that (from a bank) that the demand is there its just being patient as the buyers could see better levels coming & that those levels have now been delivered.

[BlackPeter]

following OGC and TRY .... just looking at the depth of both stocks it appears they might have reached a (local?) low. All upwards from here?

[Skol]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talki...221806754.html

[BFG]

following OGC and TRY .... just looking at the depth of both stocks it appears they might have reached a (local?) low. All upwards from here?

No matter where you look it's just a whole bunch of ugg. SLR, TRY, RSG, PGI etc. Bet the holders of ROL are thanking their lucky stars for that buy out offer! PEs are sinking to <7 on most sticks, but the thing is it can go lower if gold tanks further.

My pick always has been and always will be OGC. Room to go lower as with all the others though!

[Skol]

Another bad day for the XGD I think, HUI, GDX and GDXJ all down 3%+.

[BFG]

$1150 smashed like it wasn't there, down another $25. Watch out belooooooowwwwww!!!

[elZorro]

Found this article, it doesn't seem implausible that the current rise of the US$ is overdone.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48071.html

[Joshuatree]

Haven't been here for awhile so hope this hasn't already been posted.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...r-decade-gofo-rate-tumbles-most-negative-2001
Physical Gold Shortage Worst In Over A Decade: GOFO Most Negative Since 2001

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/06/2014 - 09:37
As noted over the past week there has been a massive shortage of precious metals - most notably silver which as of this moment is indefinitelyunavailable at the US Mint - as a result of the tumble in the paper price, and following 8 days of sliding and negative 1 month GOFO rates, today the physical metal shortage surged, as can be seen by not only the first negative 6 month GOFO rate since last summer's much publicized gold shortage when China was gobbling up every piece of shiny yellow rock available for sale, but a 1 month GOFO of -0.1850%: the most negative it has been since 2001!

[BFG]

Gold up $35 overnight. What's going on? US jobs data was inline with forecasts and the Ukraine isn't boiling over (yet). Simple accumulation and buying power pushing up to make shorts cover like the last time this happened in one day?

[BlackPeter]

Gold up $35 overnight. What's going on? US jobs data was inline with forecasts and the Ukraine isn't boiling over (yet). Simple accumulation and buying power pushing up to make shorts cover like the last time this happened in one day?

Ah well - I bought on Friday some more gold mining shares, though didn't manage to get all the OGC I was looking for (well, at the price I offered). Maybe this changed the trend ...

Overall - I don't know, whether it is just the bounce of an "unconscious cat" (never would talk in the context of gold of "dead cats"), or the start of a new upwards trend. However long term I am sure gold will recover (looking at the debt mountains the western countries build up). So now appears in my view a reasonable time to accumulate (particularly low cost miners ....). Maybe others feeling the same?