Gold

[Hoop]

While I agree with your annalist of the recent price swings in gold if you take a step back and consider how the big boys play the game with shorts,longs, puts and call options,derivatives, hedging and the many other ways to place a punt I think you will find that manipulation is common place.
Did you know that for every ounce of gold produced it is traded 300 times before the end user gets it.
Did you know that for every barrel of oil produced it is traded 80 times before the end users gets it.
This is the crazy world of investing.

I wrote a lengthy post...and I'm gutted as I push the wrong button and my post disappeared.
Not going to write it all again...so...I'll keep this post short (bit of humour

Snaps and others... don't confuse actions of market dynamics with actions of manipulation...
If you do believe that, then you believe that every single transaction within a market place is a type of manipulation...

Acts of Manipulation can be picked up when that market dynamics became warped and fail to operate efficiently..Chartists and others can pick this up easily by looking at associated systems surrounding that markets environment Those associated systems have a high correlation coefficient (0.85+) but when the market is being manipulated these systems disassociate...Has the gold Market's associated systems been disassociated recently?? no-one has commented on this being so..and I can't find any..so I say again "I can't imagine manipulation is involved...just typical market behaviour at work"

Did you know that for every ounce of gold produced it is traded 300 times before the end user gets it.
Did you know that for every barrel of oil produced it is traded 80 times before the end users gets it.
A product going through many hands before reaching the end user is natural market dynamics and in some cases that market's system is protected by law e.g paying $42 for a video movie and the movie maker only gets $0.99 of that $42...That piece of video passing through many hands like oil?..price manipulation by the middlemen? ..no, its the Video market system in normal action...Can us plebs circumvent that market dynamics and buy from the video source for $0.99?.. no its probably illegal..
Similar market dynamics applies at the supermarket with produce....and any other retailer or any entity...Years ago we consumers couldn't buy from the wholesaler..

Oil and all the marketable instruments within the Oil Market...nothing wrong here either as there are buyers and sellers...as long as the product being bought matches up with the product sold there is no manipulation...

Big buyers "manipulate" their market?.. ..they do effect the market as their behaviour is large enough to shift the price equilibrium balance with supply/demand within the Market dynamics and they would be silly not to use their power to gain maximum effect to their advantage...but this is not manipulation as it isn't destructively warping or circumventing that market systems dynamics...In theory the efficient market system caters for all sizes of its participants..

When is it manipulation?..Hunt Brothers cornering the silver market was manipulation as it upset that market's system dynamics and the Authorities has to "intervene" (I personally call this manipulation too) to fix it..
Buffett tried it in the silver market in late 1990's, sent a lot of silver investors to the wall but unlike Hunt but got away with it as it didn't upset the market systems dynamics..got the nick name as a Master manipulator and developed a good nose to sniff out manipulated markets..

Always the big boys fault???...no... mass investor fear (everyone wants out) behaviour causing capitulation, unintentionally manipulates that market...and guess who's watching closely when this happens ..Yep Buffett...

So where is Buffett?...he's not around sniffing the gold market and never has.

[JBmurc]

http://www.mining.com/web/close-to-t...not-there-yet/

the mining stocks which led the bear market are moving from very oversold to extremely oversold. The HUI Gold Bugs Index, shown below closed Wednesday at an 11-year low. As far as the HUI’s distance from its 50 and 200-day moving averages, it is inches from major extremes. Over the past 50 days the HUI has declined 36.4%. That is the second worst performance over the past 20 years. The picture is even worse for the junior mining sector. GDXJ has declined 43% over the past 50 days. It is trading at the lowest level relative to its 50-day moving average since the creation of the ETF

Greenspan speaks the truth many are to deaf to here...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz4-Tru_30A#t=53

[Skol]

I'd sooner have leprosy than own gold, silver, GDX, GDXJ, HUI or anything else precious metals.
They can cure leprosy these days.

[Daytr]

Well JB, I would say we are far closer to the bottom than the top in both POG & gold stocks & we are probably in the bottom quartile.
I still think we need to see some blood on the floor before a bottom is signaled & that means some high cost production is culled & perhaps a few producers with loads of debt will fall over. There are a couple of producers I can see that are vulnerable & the disappointing thing is, that some of them had an opportunity to reduce debt and took other options.
Perhaps they will have very costly capital raisings & dilute the hell out of their shares to survive & retire debt, but either way that's ugly.

[Daytr]

Further to the above, I think we are seeing a bit of settling in the USD trade with the AUD showing some resilience as is gold around $1150ish.
Now this may be a short term thing before we move lower, but with the Swiss vote now just around the corner I favour buying dips as I have done yesterday & again today. The Swiss vote is likely to be relatively close but imo is likely to fail, however if you are short gold & perhaps in size would you run the risk that the Swiss vote actually passes or would you cover your position just in case?
The increase in backwardation in gold has also got me intrigued. Very similar to this time last year & we rallied $200.
Obviously backwardation is a combination of US interest rates & gold lease rates so both can create backwardation, however the recent increase in backwardation is likely a result of gold borrowing & that is likely to be due to either producer hedging (which I have been hearing there has been some) & speculative shorts.

[Daytr]

And thar she blows! Gold surged higher on Friday some $40+ off its intra day lows. A massive move that also took out $1180 resistance. I rode the surge from $1152 as thought being a Friday there maybe some short covering I also thought the market was getting a bit too complacent in regards the USD trade. Gold out performed currencies & it has now rejected sub $1250 on at least three occasions in recent weeks. Its also around this level that gold rallied circa $250 this time last year. Not sure if this will be a repeat but some shorts will be licking their wounds after the last two Friday's moves, so I suspect this bounce has a bit more to run & possibly a lot more.

Any thoughts Hoop from a TA perspective ?

[Skol]

Daytr says


"Well JB, I would say we are far closer to the bottom than the top in both POG & gold stocks & we are probably in the bottom quartile."

The bottom quartile? Daytr has publicly stated that the bottom's in about $1140, so if we're in the bottom quartile that means we've got further to go.
Maybe Daytr can elucidate.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quartile

[Skol]

http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/10162...-bubble-unwind

[Daytr]

Well gold held the important level of $1180 overnight & didn't really threaten it at all to be honest despite the Euro giving back over a cent from its AEST morning highs & other currencies under pressure as well.
JP Morgan put out they have gone over weight European equities & under weight US equities saying US equities were grossly over valued in comparison, but still expects US equities to do ok. Looks like they are stalling to me...
Japan in recession.
More massive takeovers in big Pharma & oil services, both paying ridiculous premiums. Always a good indicator of a market that's about to correct for mine. One thing I found interesting re the Pharma aggressive takeover, they noted that although they were a US registered company, Dublin was their tax base where they enjoy fantastic tax breaks. I hope they aren't counting on that to last.... Doh

Gone short the DOW, admittedly don't know if its topped out as markets can always run harder than you expect. And still long gold.

[JBmurc]

Yes you do get the feeling another GFC is just round the corner .....early 2015 ?? ...Japan the igniter

Gold Silver smashing running out of steam ...one of the few sectors thats bumping on the bottom while you look at recent Billion dollar IPO's.... tech , Banking , yield plays running at very high values ...property also breaking records how much longer will the trend run for
it never lasts ...