Gold

[BFG]

BFG, are you a reincarnation of Moosie? I hope so as life was getting a bit boring around here without you. Now we just need BC back!
Re your comment on the downgrade of Japan. It appears Moodys are the only rating agency with any balls.
It was Moodys that down graded the US & threatened more when all that debt ceiling crap was going on.

Haha yeah I am the reincarnation of the one they called Moose. I'm just Bigger and Goofier now (you can guess what the middle word is in my name now)

[Skol]

Hope none of you guys got duped into 'investing' your hard-earned dollars into Daytr's gold penny-dreadfuls, his second-rate 'forecasts' could be trumped by a circus fortune-teller, hardly worthy of a gold trader with 20 years experience working for eminent investment conglomerates, or so he says.

[BlackPeter]

Hope none of you guys got duped into 'investing' your hard-earned dollars into Daytr's gold penny-dreadfuls, his second-rate 'forecasts' could be trumped by a circus fortune-teller, hardly worthy of a gold trader with 20 years experience working for eminent investment conglomerates, or so he says.

20/20 hind sight, I presume?

[Skol]

Not at all, gold's headed south, has been for years and will continue.

When bubbles burst it gets very nasty for a very long time.

[BlackPeter]

Not at all, gold's headed south, has been for years and will continue.

When bubbles burst it gets very nasty for a very long time.

So - you are predicting gold will further drop, are you? Where do you see the bottom?

[Daytr]

BlackPeter its up to you if you want to engage with Skol, however I think you can judge by the nature of posts where this is heading.
Gold stocks for me as a trader have been quite brilliant in the last month with swings of 30% up and back.
I realize that's not everyone's cup of tea, but as a trader its a dream.
We all have our views on gold, personally I think it should do well into the New Year & then I will re-assess closer to the time for further out.
Aussie gold in particular as I have been saying for some time will do well and right now its trading A$1427, which is a very good margin for some Aussie based miners. In the medium term gold could trade lower if the USD continues to strengthen, however that will also impact the AUD, so there is a natural hedge for Aussie gold production. However in the long term I expect gold to be much, much higher as once the likes of China has drained gold from a Europe on its knees & the US flakey gold investment in ETFs, gold will steadily rise. There are many other reasons why I like gold for the long term, however I don't trade for the long term, I am trading for tomorrow, next week or a month out & not much beyond. Something our resident 'play the man' Skol poster doesn't seem to get.

[Skol]

So - you are predicting gold will further drop, are you? Where do you see the bottom?

Yes I do, the bottom could be years away, it took over 19 years after the 1980 debacle. Daytr is often here crowing about his achievements, without a shred of evidence, he's trying to drum up a little business. He was telling anyone who would listen that he was going to short the DJIA at 17,000, if he had he'd be bankrupt by now. Daytr gets particularly aggravated when anyone posts anything positive about my predictions, because I'm an amateur punter, an airline employee, and he's a 'professional' trader with 20 years experience, maybe.

If Daytr is as clever as he says he is he wouldn't need to drum up business here, he'd already be mega-rich from trading.

How far will it drop, who knows, but if 1980 is any indication it will be around $650, silver has already impoverished many, it's dived 67% since its peak, if gold had dropped by the same amount it would already be at $650.
Many think that silver precedes gold.

Societe Generale have recently posted an estimated $862 average for gold from 2016 -2019.

Here's one of Daytr's 'can't miss' recent punts, DRM, the road to ruin.

[BlackPeter]

BlackPeter its up to you if you want to engage with Skol, however I think you can judge by the nature of posts where this is heading.
Gold stocks for me as a trader have been quite brilliant in the last month with swings of 30% up and back.
I realize that's not everyone's cup of tea, but as a trader its a dream.
We all have our views on gold, personally I think it should do well into the New Year & then I will re-assess closer to the time for further out.
Aussie gold in particular as I have been saying for some time will do well and right now its trading A$1427, which is a very good margin for some Aussie based miners. In the medium term gold could trade lower if the USD continues to strengthen, however that will also impact the AUD, so there is a natural hedge for Aussie gold production. However in the long term I expect gold to be much, much higher as once the likes of China has drained gold from a Europe on its knees & the US flakey gold investment in ETFs, gold will steadily rise. There are many other reasons why I like gold for the long term, however I don't trade for the long term, I am trading for tomorrow, next week or a month out & not much beyond. Something our resident 'play the man' Skol poster doesn't seem to get.

Hi Daytr, cheers for that. Based on my investment strategy am I not too worried about the short term (though it is always nice to buy cheap), and not investing into gold directly either. I am however holding / accumulating some gold miners which tend to swing around with PoG moving.

PoG seems to rise when uncertainty rises - and I see lots of potential with high Western debt (potential state bankrupts) and conflict in the middle East).
PoG as well rises due to still increasing demand of the so far largest Indian generation in need for gold to get married.

In my view the long term scenario you picture is more likely than not ... but I guess, time will tell.

[BlackPeter]

Yes I do, the bottom could be years away, it took over 19 years after the 1980 debacle. Daytr is often here crowing about his achievements, without a shred of evidence, he's trying to drum up a little business. He was telling anyone who would listen that he was going to short the DJIA at 17,000, if he had he'd be bankrupt by now. Daytr gets particularly aggravated when anyone posts anything positive about my predictions, because I'm an amateur punter, an airline employee, and he's a 'professional' trader with 20 years experience, maybe.

If Daytr is as clever as he says he is he wouldn't need to drum up business here, he'd already be mega-rich from trading.

How far will it drop, who knows, but if 1980 is any indication it will be around $650, silver has already impoverished many, it's dived 67% since its peak, if gold had dropped by the same amount it would already be at $650.
Many think that silver precedes gold.

Societe Generale have recently posted an estimated $862 average for gold from 2016 -2019.

Here's one of Daytr's 'can't miss' recent punts, DRM, the road to ruin.

Hi Skol, Thanks for replying. I do see the drop in PoG over the last 4 years, but I am not sure, whether there is a rule that every downtrend needs to go on for 19 years? I guess, the question is, do you think it will go down because the trend is your friend (i.e. because TA says so), or because some analyst says so (there are many saying different)? I would be interested in whether and (if yes) what fundamentals you see to bring PoG further down.

[cyclist]

Based on my investment strategy am I not too worried about the short term (though it is always nice to buy cheap) .... I am however holding / accumulating some gold miners which tend to swing around with PoG moving.

BP. I'd be interested in more background to your strategy. I also see value in this area at current prices, but using OGC for example, I struggle to find a good reason to effectively buy and hold. It can return to fair value pretty quickly as the gold price rises, but then if a hiccup in the gold price forces it back down again - what has been gained unless you sell some along the way.