Gold

[Daytr]

Just catching up after a week away from the markets.
Scanning the gold headlines from bank reports & analysts there has been a substantial shift toward gold in sentiment. Some are still unconvinced saying this a short term blip & that gold will revert to a bearish trend sooner rather than later. Even Goldmans have called gold to average $1262 for 2015 up from 1200 & that was a revision up from the previous quite bearish call they had for 2014.
Hedgefunds seem to be buying licks and then you have the likes of Russia, now Holland & the turn around from supply to demand of the ETFs which is quite significant.
Vol is still priced fairly high although being reigned in with this recent consolidation.
To me it looks like gold wants to fill a gap in the chart around $1255, however with the current appetite that may not happen.
I suspect we will see this current surge run for at least another 4 months & then look to reassess.
The old go away in May adage is in my mind, however I suspect we are yet to see the debt carnage from the crash in energy prices yet.
DOW likely to underperform on higher USD & if this current snow storm is a repeat of Q1 2014 we could see quite an impact on US GDP once again as well.

[Daytr]

Gold had what I call a good technical cleanout overnight. The gap on the chart at $1255 has now been filled.
With speculative longs now reduced gold should now move higher & have another crack at $1300

[Hoop]

Gold had what I call a good technical cleanout overnight. The gap on the chart at $1255 has now been filled.
With speculative longs now reduced gold should now move higher & have another crack at $1300

Maybe...but at the moment it is testing both its MA200 line and a resistance line..an area which would put this strong rally at risk if broken...The real worry however is that Gold's latest rally didn't go higher than 1308 thereby failed to break above its primary down trend line...ideally it has to go past 1350

The technical problem for Gold was the last quarter of 2014..It seemed any hint of a new bull market cycle was extinguished when the new uptrend was broken and gold fell to create a new low of 1130 in early November..because of that, we should be "investor prudent" to assume Gold is still in a bear market cycle and therefore treat all future rallys as sucker rallys until a bull/bear break out occurs to prove otherwise...sadly, a failure to go higher than 1308 helps to confirm Golds Bear Cycle status....

...but as they say..... all trends do end ... and like death and taxes, cyclic reversals are guaranteed to happen at some point in time

[Daytr]

Thanks Hoop.
I think as long as the Russians & Chinese & various other CBs continue to buy we are pretty safe.
There has been an interesting tick up in GLD lately as well.
The FED are playing the confidence trick. Everything is A OK.
I'm not saying its had, but there are some headwinds, notably the strong USD, winter storms & a very real possibility of a debt crunch relating to the energy sector.

[babymonster]

Strong usd is not good for the gold and U.S. fund managers are selling aus gold stocks because of the weak aus dollar pushing gold stocks lower.

[Daytr]

Yep a strong USD is counter intuitive to stronger gold, unless both are being used as a safe haven asset which to a certain extent is what we are seeing.
Both gold & Aussie gold stocks are rising & the latter rising strongly.
As most gold stocks were out of favor there isn't alot of the type of selling you suggest happening.
In fact Blackrock has been seen buying last week.
Gold bounced back strongly, form Thursday' slows & filled a gap on the chart for mine & it looks like we will get a close above $1280.
Gold stocks should open much higher Monday. ;-)
Its been a great 24 hours

[babymonster]

Great news, it's above 1280 now. Hopefully nothing bad happen during the weekend. 😇

Yep a strong USD is counter intuitive to stronger gold, unless both are being used as a safe haven asset which to a certain extent is what we are seeing.
Both gold & Aussie gold stocks are rising & the latter rising strongly.
As most gold stocks were out of favor there isn't alot of the type of selling you suggest happening.
In fact Blackrock has been seen buying last week.
Gold bounced back strongly, form Thursday' slows & filled a gap on the chart for mine & it looks like we will get a close above $1280.
Gold stocks should open much higher Monday. ;-)
Its been a great 24 hours

[JBmurc]

We get a strong move in Gold USD ....AUD gold will blow the doors off $1700oz ASX producers never seen a better time to be producing Gold lower costs labour/fuel etc ....

[Daytr]

As expressed on HC, gold sent out a clear signal for mine last week that it wants to trade significantly higher.
I picked the correction & bounce, although didn't ride either as well as I should have.
I am now long gold & long gold stocks.
Basically I'm all in.

[babymonster]

good held up yesterday..back to us$1280 now