Gold

[Daytr]

Yeah quite possible. At some stage if the Greeks don't start meeting repayments etc something will have to be done.
Given an inch...
Gold technically still looks ok to me despite last night's move down.
I'm long here & looking for a move back over $1200.

Anyone else got thoughts from a TA perspective?

Hoop any thoughts?

[skid]

There are some serious pitfalls with have a shared currency--with your own currency ,when trouble hits ,your currency devalues(usually)making your exports more attractive--which gives you a fighting chance--With a shared currency you simply run out of money and become a slave to others---Sooner or later they will go(or should go)

[Daytr]

Very poor night for gold considering the dollar was weaker.
Odd, oil up, ccys up, gold down & reasonably aggressively.
Tech heavy weights soared & perhaps this was the major catalyst, but interested in others thoughts.

[BlackPeter]

Very poor night for gold considering the dollar was weaker.
Odd, oil up, ccys up, gold down & reasonably aggressively.
Tech heavy weights soared & perhaps this was the major catalyst, but interested in others thoughts.

Somewhat surprised as well - I would have thought it be more likely for gold to rise and oil to fall ... but hey - I can live with both scenarios as long as they don't drop both ...

[Aaron]

What drives demand for gold? Jewellery, doomdayers putting some in the back yard, exchange traded funds trying to match the paper trail, central banks?
There seems to be a s**tload of gold mining companies around the globe. Won't gold go the way of iron ore with supply swamping demand. A Greek exit might get a few more doomdayers buying but will it be enough to soak up all the gold being pulled from the ground. Also gold lasts well so it is not like it needs to be replaced every few years.
This may have been asked and answered earlier in this thread if you can point me in the right direction.

[Daytr]

You have the demand drivers pretty well covered.
Production is up around 10% to around 3K tons, China being the biggest producer by some margin.
Much of that additional production was inspired by higher prices as it takes years for a mine to get into production.
The current lower prices means that global production is likely to start falling, with lack of investment in new mines to replace diminishing ones.
ETFs, de-hedging, old money (Europe) & Chinese consumption have been the main swing factors in the S&D equation over the last few years.
Lets face it with all that has gone on in the last 7 years or so without China the world would be absolutely stuffed economically & the same goes for gold.

[BlackPeter]

What drives demand for gold? Jewellery, doomdayers putting some in the back yard, exchange traded funds trying to match the paper trail, central banks?
There seems to be a s**tload of gold mining companies around the globe. Won't gold go the way of iron ore with supply swamping demand. A Greek exit might get a few more doomdayers buying but will it be enough to soak up all the gold being pulled from the ground. Also gold lasts well so it is not like it needs to be replaced every few years.
This may have been asked and answered earlier in this thread if you can point me in the right direction.

Hi Aaron, I think you got most of the drivers. Some of them are obviously stronger than others

Of the reasons you mentioned -

(1) National banks reserves: any National bank will need something tangible to back their currency if & when people lose confidence into the economical power of the respective nation. Gold is not the only tangible asset to consider, but it is quite easy to store and historically kept its value better than other non perishable assets. We see this at current e.g. with the Russians hoarding gold due to people losing their confidence in the Russian economy - and e.g. oil too cheap to be useful as cover.

(2) Jewellery: some cultures have very strong traditions to "gift" gold jewelry for weddings. In many parts of e.g. India and Sri Lanka parents would not give a girl away without the groom providing a substantial gold present to the bride. If you look at the age pyramide in South Asia (lots of young people) - many young people move into the age where they want to found a family - i.e. they need more and more gold (as long as the population is growing and the tradition holds).

(3) tangible (and easy movable) asset in bad times: Not sure, whether you or your parents went already through a hyperinflation where paper money lost basically all of its worth. My grand parents did this twice during their life time (somewhere in middle Europe). I still remember the worthless paper money they showed me when I was a child. Pretty banknotes, big numbers, but no monetary worth at all. You don't need to be a doomsday preacher to expect something like that to happen again, somewhere on this globe - a more recent examples would be e.g. Zimbabwe. Another good reason for people to buy gold in economically troubled times instead of relying on cash.

(4) "haircuts" - another sign for fiat currency losing value (though not inflation based, but in not always predictable quantum leaps. Some people who lost money in the Argentina default, the previous Russian default, in the GFC, during the Icelandic bank crash, in Cyprus or in Greece reinvest all their money into bonds to wait for the next "hair cut". Not a good long term strategy unless you want to lose money (and than I could imagine easier and more fun ways to do that). Other people find more stable assets to store their wealth. Gold is not the only option, but one of them. As well - given that a number of developed countries started to pay negative interest rates ... you are actually better off with holding gold (paying neither positive nor negative interest) ...

(5) And so far we only talked about individual troubled economies. More and more economists agree that most developed nations (like e.g. US, most European countries) will never pay back their debts. So - what do you think will happen if people want their money back (given that lending it to your country and accepting a negative interest rate is only limited fun)? Right - I guess best case would see lots of "hair cuts" and people happily reinvesting their diminished funds in joyful expectation of the next hair cut. Some investors might however look for something which is likely to keep its value better than cash - and gold is likely part of the mix (next to shares & property, of course).

Obviously nobody can predict what the gold price will do tomorrow, next week or next year (though there are always people who try). Long term would I however think that gold is much more likely to rise than to fall - and it will even keep value if economies crash (I am not saying they are ...).

Discl: hold a couple of miners ... and as always: DYOR

[airedale]

"Future

GOLD May 2015 (E) (GC.K15.E) +85

22 minutes ago
Trading up +3.1 (+0.26%) at 1177.9. Chart shows the current downward trend is at a crossroads and has possibly ended. Look for choppy trading action in the nearterm Very Weak Downtrend with very tight stops."

This is the present near term forecast/guess from www.ino.com

[elZorro]

"Future

GOLD May 2015 (E) (GC.K15.E) +85

22 minutes ago
Trading up +3.1 (+0.26%) at 1177.9. Chart shows the current downward trend is at a crossroads and has possibly ended. Look for choppy trading action in the nearterm Very Weak Downtrend with very tight stops."

This is the present near term forecast/guess from www.ino.com

I see the USD index has broken down below the 50 day MA for the first time in quite a while. This should in theory boost the gold price.

[Daytr]

Gold has certainly been on the outer when you look at the weakness in the dollar. Typical post Fed behavior.
It did break below support Friday, however maybe its a bias, but I can't see gold being out of kilter with ccys for long, so am expecting a bounce.
Picked some up at $1173 last night. Hoping we can get back into the $1180-1210 range.