Gold

[airedale]

A more cautious view.

http://thedailygold.com/juniors-show...metals-weaken/

[robbo24]

Here is a link posted by another member on NTL thread on NZX page regarding China & India's increasing demand for gold

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ng-gold-miners

Here's the working link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ng-gold-miners

[Logen Ninefingers]

Won't gold dive as soon as the U.S. increases interest rates?
And then once the effects of US interest rate rises kick in, and their stock market collapses, I guess the outlook for gold will be pretty good to say the least. Also China stocks & property are in bubbles, if they pop...
So at the moment I would say that gold is not rising due to the fact that the U.S. will be raising interest rates at some stage this year dominating the outlook. So at the point between when the U.S. raises interest rates and when their economy sputters and the bubbles pop: that would be the big buying opportunity.
Anyone agree?

[JBmurc]

Yes ....But nothing wrong getting in early Gold / Silver and PM shares not exactly expensive ..

[Logen Ninefingers]

Most PM shares have been cheap for a while, and they keep getting cheaper.....
Anyway, I'm in a few basically as a hedge against things tanking between now and the U.S. interest rate rise/s, but am keeping most of my powder dry.
Hard to believe that Greece is 2 weeks from defaulting, with the opposing sides having seemingly irreconcilable differences, and yet gold can't get any traction. The Greek contagion is supposedly contained, whereas I would argue that a default would open up huge existential questions about the future of Europe and also make the borrowing costs for the likes of Spain, Portugal, Italy on the Eurozone periphery prohibitive i.e. a series of incalcuable domino effects would eventuate.
....but no-one seems overly worried. They all expect a solution to be arrived at before the sh*t hits the fan on 30 June.

[Daytr]

Conventional wisdom would agree with you in regards higher interest rates, therefore a higher dollar & lower gold. However gold has risen well in rising interest rate environments to i.e. 2000 - 2006. Two things, the Fed not may raise rates as quickly as the market anticipates, we will know more on that tonight. And 2nd, I think it also depends on how alternative investments such as stocks react to a higher interest rate environment.

Won't gold dive as soon as the U.S. increases interest rates?
And then once the effects of US interest rate rises kick in, and their stock market collapses, I guess the outlook for gold will be pretty good to say the least. Also China stocks & property are in bubbles, if they pop...
So at the moment I would say that gold is not rising due to the fact that the U.S. will be raising interest rates at some stage this year dominating the outlook. So at the point between when the U.S. raises interest rates and when their economy sputters and the bubbles pop: that would be the big buying opportunity.
Anyone agree?

[Daytr]

Seems Fed is in no hurry to raise rates, although I think end game is nigh & they are signally a rate rise by the end of the year. Caveat, I think this can has now been kicked down the road almost 18 months so it could well be again. Gold & silver both bounced. Greece also adding to the mix with I think tonight being fairly critical. The rhetoric from the Greeks getting more feisty & Europe getting fed up. Obviously a reasonable chance this can gets kicked down the road also, however the longer they leave it the bigger the debt grows as Greece is incurring more debt not less & that's even at basically zero interest rates. If Greece had even normalized interest rates let alone market rates to reflect the risk they would be mounting interest debt in the 10s of billions more than they are right now. At some point there is either gong to have to be a major haircut in the hundreds of billions, but even then it doesn't change the Greek culture & it will just happen again. They have to go.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Both Syriza and the Troika are miles apart, I'd say a Greek default is now pretty much inevitable, unless Greece were to get some money from Rusia at the 11th hour.
What impact would default have on gold: where would the price go?
What impact would a Greek default have on the global economy? A large shock precipitating an immediate crisis, or would the effects be more in the nature having a destabilization effect on the Eurozone with the consequences felt over the longer term? Or both?

[airedale]

Greece accounts for about .02% of the world economy. So there will be a "shock" albeit a small one. By the end of the year it will have faded in to a "blip".

[Daytr]

Airdale, that's not how Yellen described it over night. "A failure of Greece and its creditors to reach an agreement risks a disruption to global financial markets and the US economy, Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen has warned."
It obviously depends if they Grexit & if so how it happens. The article linked below from the NY Times although a bit out of date gives you a good idea of the crisis. The previous bailouts were effectively privatizing European commercial bank dent as the proceeds have been used to pay down commercial bank debt I understand. So the banks win again. However nothing has changed other than overall debt is still growing & the Greeks are worried about their Govt funded pension schemes and also their own bank deposits. Withdrawals in the 1st week of June from Greek banks was around 1.2Bln Euros from memory. I think if Europe can privatize the debt further they will another words the debt then falls on the ECB & IMF or basically the European taxpayer. But politically that's pretty unpalatable & still doesn't resolve any issues with Greece other than if they did write off the debt then the commercial banks are out of it, but then what's to stop Spain & Portugal asking for the same treatment? Potentially this could make Lehmans look like a blip.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/bu...isis.html?_r=0