Gold

[stevo1]

Skol you are absent from your hobbie horse .does that mean gold will rise?????????????????????????????

[Daytr]

He's not absent on the Aussie forum. He's been banned on this one I think.
Gold doing the same as last Monday. Opens with a bang & then gives it all back.
I've gone long here in smalls.
Looking at oil, its been smashed with Brent down below $60 for the first time in a while.
That isn't a particularly good indicator for the global economy.

[digger]

All in all no matter how you look at it the China factor takes center stage. The Greek thing is just a side show. I would say that the chinese investor would be doing everything to meet the margin calls,so gold get sold off.
My eyes see it as one leg up for Greece and two down from china.

[Daytr]

Could be Digger, however most of the selling seems to be overnight, not in Asian markets.
Retail sellers in China accumulated & sold into a more liquid London market is possible.
It wouldn't surprise me if gold was being contained by the likes of the ECB & IMF as it wouldn't be a good look if gold soared & the last thing they would want is any panic. Pure conspiracy theory, but I wouldn't rule it out.

Copper down 3.5%.

[Daytr]

Gold hardly moved, closing slightly up by looks.
Brent crude though down a whopping 6%+ !
Absolutely huge move, copper closing down 3.2%.
Both economic indicators, both slammed.

[Daytr]

This just in from Bank of America has got me very bullish.
"Precious Metals:The Greeks voted a definitive NO, but markets aren't sure how to react. EUR is relatively unchanged and stocks recovered after an early dip. As such, gold is where we left it on Friday. CFTC data shows net positioning in managed money is the nearly the shortest in the last year. But without out any headline able to move the price higher in material fashion, there is no reason for the shorts to be scared. A test of the lows may be imminent."

Why on earth would you be shorting gold in the current environment unless you were trying to keep a lid on gold. The good thing about a large short position, is that at some point it needs to be covered...
Ties into this article by Zero Hedge perhaps. I don't usually give these guys who see a conspiracy around every corner time of day, but this article piqued my interest.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...just-soar-1260

[Daytr]

Gold & silver smashed by hedgefunds overnight.
Seems BOA were on to something.
Picked up some more gold, but averaging into a loss, which is never comfortable!
How many markets besides silver do this on a regular basis?
Well shorts need to be covered...

[Aaron]

All in all no matter how you look at it the China factor takes center stage. The Greek thing is just a side show. I would say that the chinese investor would be doing everything to meet the margin calls,so gold get sold off.

Looks like CNN agrees with your assessment. http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/07/inve...ece/index.html
Personally had no idea where gold was going before selling but would have assumed financial market turmoil would have seen a rise in demand for gold.
Funny when I sold my gold companies I don't invest huge amounts as I am just gambling/speculating but there were multiple sales of really small lots of shares to fill my sell orders. I wonder if that is just tidying up loose ends between buys/sells or if people are trading really small parcels of shares.
I guess we need to see a loss of confidence in currencies before we see gold become more valuable.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting games ... and personally I think I leave the short term play on this to the bigger boys with the deeper pockets. No doubt for me however that gold will recover (the question is just when, not if) ... and given that the gold miners didn't move a lot recently might indicate that the market thinks similar.

[Daytr]

The CFTC data shows the majority of this move in gold is due to shorting. The largest short position on COMEX in a year has been established & it just got bigger overnight. Putting my Hedgefund hat on for a second, I've been asking myself why would the so called 'smart' money, hedgefunds, be shorting gold at a time when there is so much uncertainty & potential of systemic risk? Well China margin calls could be part of it, although I don't think that's the main reason to short gold as physical demand has actually increased substantially in the likes of Europe, the US etc. In this world of upside-down economics created by the Central Banks with zero interest rates & trillions of stimulus, my view is that the hedgefunds are betting on more & more stimulus (something Robbo24 touched on a few days ago) & that US interest rates have been kicked down the road. Many have said a rising US interest rate will hurt gold, I'm not so sure about that as it will hurt equity markets & government debt more.
In the last few years there is a very strong inverse correlation between the Fed's balance sheet & the price of gold. Interesting when the Fed's balance sheet flatlined for a while in 2010/11 so did gold pretty much, but QE changed all that. With QE3 the Fed threw the kitchen sink at the economy & gold capitulated. My pick is that with the turmoil around Greece & now China that the Hedgefunds are punting on more stimulus. The big question is are they right? I'm not sure China will follow the US model with an on-going stimulus program to boost equity markets once they settle, because I don't think it will be required as they will probably rebound on their own accord. Interesting times!

http://www.macrotrends.net/1448/fed-...-vs-gold-price