Gold

[Daytr]

I would have thought the idea of investing in gold immediately makes you a doomsayer. It is an insurance against monetary collapse and inflation. The idea is that other currencies are losing value through excessive printing and devaluation, or market turbulence and geo-political uncertainty.

A closed-end fund with set amount of gold on hand would make sense but how would an etf match investments to the amount of physical gold held. The temptation to sell more certificates than you have gold in the vault would be hard to resist. Historically it always happens, from early banks to everyone leaving the gold standard in the 1930s. I assume the great depression meant there were a lot of chickens coming home to roost and when doom was upon them the certificates for the gold (currencies) far outweighed the gold in the vault.

Like any currency, if people lose faith in gold it would be worth a lot less than it is now, although it might have a future as an industrial metal at a much lower price.

For me it is a speculation as much as it is an insurance policy against doom befalling us all, so does not make up a large portion of my portfolio as I am conservative as well as doomsayery.

Well your first thought was wrong.
Some are sure, but many people just invest in something because they think it will appreciate in value or hedge inflation etc.

ETFs are regulated like any investment.
To be approved by the Securities & Exchange Commission the product is thoroughly vetted prior to it being launched and it would have to be audited.
Remember the E stands for Exchange so they are monitored & regulated by the SEC.

[ValueNZ]

True but what do you recommend.

Agricultural, industrial or considering your age technological. What about utilities? Which companies are currently fairly priced in your opinion. Which are the new growth industries and which are the sunset ones?

I am open to specific recommendations although I will not guarantee that I will act on them as all investment involves risk.

p.s thinking about it further a highly levered property purchase is also a good insurance against inflation, provided you didn't pay too much or are too leveraged.

I won't make any recommendations, but my two largest holdings are Oceania Healthcare and Stellantis.

I'd say any industry that you understand and can gauge the companies ability to generate cash for it's shareholders in the future are the ones you should be looking at. Given a low enough share price in relation to intrinsic value, even an investment in a company operating within a stagnant or dying industry can generate good returns. One annuity provider I'm invested in I expect to have zero or very low operating earnings growth, but should do well just because the price I'm paying is so low for the operating earnings. Probably stay away from the tech industry especially the ones making extraordinary claims about AI, as they all seem to be either fully priced or overpriced.

I'd call a highly levered property purchase a bad investment, it's an expensive unproductive asset. If you're going to use leverage, use small amounts on productive assets, unless you can manage to get it very cheap and noncallable.

[Aaron]

I won't make any recommendations, but my two largest holdings are Oceania Healthcare and Stellantis.

I'd say any industry that you understand and can gauge the companies ability to generate cash for it's shareholders in the future are the ones you should be looking at. Given a low enough share price in relation to intrinsic value, even an investment in a company operating within a stagnant or dying industry can generate good returns. One annuity provider I'm invested in I expect to have zero or very low operating earnings growth, but should do well just because the price I'm paying is so low for the operating earnings. Probably stay away from the tech industry especially the ones making extraordinary claims about AI, as they all seem to be either fully priced or overpriced.

I'd call a highly levered property purchase a bad investment, it's an expensive unproductive asset. If you're going to use leverage, use small amounts on productive assets, unless you can manage to get it very cheap and noncallable.

I appreciate your openness. Looks like you are investing in an aging population. Still some debate as to whether OCA is generating much cash on the OCA thread from what I can gather.

[Daytr]

Gold through $2000 again
The outlook seems to be based on lower FED interest rates. However the cost of carry right now is still 5%+.
It will be interesting if it can hold & go onto new highs.

[SailorRob]

Well your first thought was wrong.
Some are sure, but many people just invest in something because they think it will appreciate in value or hedge inflation etc.

ETFs are regulated like any investment.
To be approved by the Securities & Exchange Commission the product is thoroughly vetted prior to it being launched and it would have to be audited.
Remember the E stands for Exchange so they are monitored & regulated by the SEC.

You are also wrong,

Some great points from Aaron, but you cannot invest in Gold, only speculate.

[Daytr]

You are also wrong,

Some great points from Aaron, but you cannot invest in Gold, only speculate.

Stop talking bolloxs.
I know you have a chip on your shoulder about me, but its making you post some idiotic comments.
But by all means carry on. 🤣

[ValueNZ]

Stop talking bolloxs.
I know you have a chip on your shoulder about me, but its making you post some idiotic comments.
But by all means carry on. 藍

Daytr, do you actually own gold or just sometimes trade it? If you do own gold it'd be interesting to know why you own it, whether that be physical or an etf, instead of say an index fund, stocks, bonds, funds for trading, or some other form of investment/speculative operation.

[SailorRob]

Stop talking bolloxs.
I know you have a chip on your shoulder about me, but its making you post some idiotic comments.
But by all means carry on. 🤣

Ok, no worries.

Explain how you invest in gold when it has no cash flow nor ever will.

All you depend on is selling it to someone else.

This is the exact definition of speculation.

Look up the definition of investing.

[Daytr]

Daytr, do you actually own gold or just sometimes trade it? If you do own gold it'd be interesting to know why you own it, whether that be physical or an etf, instead of say an index fund, stocks, bonds, funds for trading, or some other form of investment/speculative operation.

I trade gold quite regularly. Currently I have a small short position that I only entered yesterday after it broke through 2000.
I trade ETFS.

I specialized mostly in gold trading when in banking and saw all sorts of reasons driving the gold price, supply & demand etc.
A significant amount of activity is driven by gold miners, cultural demand, jewelry, electronics, investment I.e put in a vault or ETF or futures investing and trading.
The evolution of ETFs was a big driver of gold appreciation in the last 15 years or so, but so to the cost of production driven by costs but also due to the average grade being mined has reduced considerably.

[Daytr]

Ok, no worries.

Explain how you invest in gold when it has no cash flow nor ever will.

All you depend on is selling it to someone else.

This is the exact definition of speculation.

Look up the definition of investing.

Gold has a lease rate I.e an interest rate that fluctuates with supply & demand.
It's only really wholesale quantities that can take advantage of it & typically its quite low but I have seen gold lease rates spike to double digits and I think from memory once I remember it spiking to around 40 - 50% very briefly.

The interest rate doesn't normally drive investment but does help offset the holding cost, I.e the USD interest cost.