Gold

[Bjauck]

Worsening situation in the Middle East, China buying more? Interest rates starting to weaken. All add to the impetus I guess.

[Daytr]

Gokd has held very well considering the turmoil in other markets.

Central Bank buying has been the key.
Just think all those CBs that sold their gokd reserves near the lows, NZ included.
Bloody disgrace.

Cost of carry is still high but set to improve with lower interest rates.
$3k is highly likely imo, but I have been saying that since it was trading around $1850....

[JBmurc]

Gokd has held very well considering the turmoil in other markets.

Central Bank buying has been the key.
Just think all those CBs that sold their gokd reserves near the lows, NZ included.
Bloody disgrace.

Cost of carry is still high but set to improve with lower interest rates.
$3k is highly likely imo, but I have been saying that since it was trading around $1850....

Yes if we indeed are running into GFC 2.0 .. will GOLD play out the same way surge like it has pre-crash then fall as many larger holders need to raise capital ??

Gold's downturn in 2008 turned out to be a bump in the road on the way to nearly $1,900/oz three years later. But why did gold fall so much in the first place? Isn't it a safe haven in times of market stress?

At the height of a selling panic like we saw in the financial crisis, everything that's not bolted to the floor tends to get liquidated. That means liquid assets such as gold are often among the first things that get sold. As a result, for several months, even the precious metals followed the stock market lower.



https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blo...t-we-can-learn

[Daytr]

Yes if we indeed are running into GFC 2.0 .. will GOLD play out the same way surge like it has pre-crash then fall as many larger holders need to raise capital ??

Gold's downturn in 2008 turned out to be a bump in the road on the way to nearly $1,900/oz three years later. But why did gold fall so much in the first place? Isn't it a safe haven in times of market stress?

At the height of a selling panic like we saw in the financial crisis, everything that's not bolted to the floor tends to get liquidated. That means liquid assets such as gold are often among the first things that get sold. As a result, for several months, even the precious metals followed the stock market lower.



https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blo...t-we-can-learn

Yep it was a busy time on the trading desk.
Not sure we are heading for a GFC 2.0 though, but anything is possible. As some of the heat is already being taken from the market that may prevent the type of sell the kitchen sink market ensuing.

The US commercial property market is one area of major concern for me that has been under reported. It's that sort if thing that can uncover issues at banks etc that haven't been disclosed.

My pick is that we are just seeing a healthy correction in stocks.

[JBmurc]

Yep it was a busy time on the trading desk.
Not sure we are heading for a GFC 2.0 though, but anything is possible. As some of the heat is already being taken from the market that may prevent the type of sell the kitchen sink market ensuing.

The US commercial property market is one area of major concern for me that has been under reported. It's that sort if thing that can uncover issues at banks etc that haven't been disclosed.

My pick is that we are just seeing a healthy correction in stocks.

Yes TECH esp has been overheated... I think end of the day the FED will do as they always have and print trillions more to keep it going ..inflation is going away IMHO and thats why the likes of GOLD / Silver will continue to do very well this decade

[Aaron]

Just interested to understand why a Trump win is bad for gold but good for bitcoin?

Both faith based investments.


Interesting to read Skol's first post back in 12/2009 "The rationale for gold bugs bullishness is the coming implosion of the $US they say."

Mine was the destruction of fiat currency through money printing and suppressing interest rates below the rate of inflation.

https://goldprice.org/

Nothing has imploded for the last 15 years although gold has gone from roughly 1,200 to 2,600 USD an oz or 116% or dividing that by 15 = 7.73% pa. No yield no way to value it except supply and demand. Although I am unsure how bitcoin is valued either. In theory the US inflation target is 2%.

Looking at NZ house prices.

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/re...an-price-reinz

Average house price last 15 years 350,000 to 781,000 or 123% divide by 15 equals 8.2%p.a. With housing you get a yield and leverage, so no brainer re investing in gold vs houses over the last 15 years from what I can tell. Gold doesn't tarnish or corrode, which cannot be said about housing but the yield should cover that over the long term. Perhaps that is why govt felt the need to impose standards on landlords if gross yields are 3% and houses have a 50year life span.

Although in gold bugs defense it is either a pure speculation or an insurance against the world going to sh*t, not really an investment.

Trying to decide whether to keep my gold producers and JBmurcs dogs or sell them and look for yield. If the newspapers are to be believed we are in for a crazy time with Trump but people in America obviously see something we are not hearing about in the papers.

[JBmurc]

Just interested to understand why a Trump win is bad for gold but good for bitcoin?

Both faith based investments.


Interesting to read Skol's first post back in 12/2009 "The rationale for gold bugs bullishness is the coming implosion of the $US they say."

Mine was the destruction of fiat currency through money printing and suppressing interest rates below the rate of inflation.

https://goldprice.org/

Nothing has imploded for the last 15 years although gold has gone from roughly 1,200 to 2,600 USD an oz or 116% or dividing that by 15 = 7.73% pa. No yield no way to value it except supply and demand. Although I am unsure how bitcoin is valued either. In theory the US inflation target is 2%.

Looking at NZ house prices.

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/re...an-price-reinz

Average house price last 15 years 350,000 to 781,000 or 123% divide by 15 equals 8.2%p.a. With housing you get a yield and leverage, so no brainer re investing in gold vs houses over the last 15 years from what I can tell. Gold doesn't tarnish or corrode, which cannot be said about housing but the yield should cover that over the long term. Perhaps that is why govt felt the need to impose standards on landlords if gross yields are 3% and houses have a 50year life span.

Although in gold bugs defense it is either a pure speculation or an insurance against the world going to sh*t, not really an investment.

Trying to decide whether to keep my gold producers and JBmurcs dogs or sell them and look for yield. If the newspapers are to be believed we are in for a crazy time with Trump but people in America obviously see something we are not hearing about in the papers.

which dogs you talking about aaron ...OBM ?

[Aaron]

which dogs you talking about aaron ...OBM ?

CWX and RXL

OBM has fairly recently gone into the green and is up 257% on my purchase price but I purchased it back in July 2020 so not quite breaking even over the three picks after just over four years.

Probably a better result than most of my other speculations.

Any idea why gold gets hammered with a Trump win? I suppose gold is disaster insurance and if I remember rightly Trump will have ended wars in the Middle East and Ukraine next week or the week after.

I think I know why crypto has gone up, Trump was the pro crypto candidate so I guess they are front running the "strategic national crypto stockpile" that Trump will create.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/06/trum...-election.html

Crypto bros are special people so Trump might just be their president. Although I would have much rather been holding bitcoin than gold this morning. Although gold can't be hacked.

It will be interesting to see if Trump's deeds matches his words. I am sceptical.

[JBmurc]

CWX and RXL

OBM has fairly recently gone into the green and is up 257% on my purchase price but I purchased it back in July 2020 so not quite breaking even over the three picks after just over four years.

Probably a better result than most of my other speculations.

yes spec explorers / developers haven't had much love last couple years ... got a few I'm underwater on but do see HUGE upside like DTR spoken with MD many times like this morning sounding really promising by later next year... maybe not another LRS 10x bagger but certainly a few bags

[Daytr]

It's hard to tell from here re gold.
I've just bought the dip.
Trump doesn't take office until January so I wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound and new highs between now & then.