Silver Chef SIV

[mark100]

Hi Colin, they've forecast EPS for FY10 of 28c so I have the PE running at 10.7 at $3. Although given their momentum maybe they will beat that. I had previously expected them to struggle to beat 30c EPS for FY11 due to extra share dilution plus H1 FY10 had an unusually low tax rate. But your right looks like they will run past $3 but I'm not a buyer above that price unless they have some huge profit forecast for next year

[percy]

Article by Citerion in today's www.theaustralian.com.au "It'shot in the kitchen equipment hire game". Also earlier in the week Lincoln Indicators featured SIV.

[COLIN]

Hi Colin, they've forecast EPS for FY10 of 28c so I have the PE running at 10.7 at $3. Although given their momentum maybe they will beat that. I had previously expected them to struggle to beat 30c EPS for FY11 due to extra share dilution plus H1 FY10 had an unusually low tax rate. But your right looks like they will run past $3 but I'm not a buyer above that price unless they have some huge profit forecast for next year

Profit guidance for FY11 out today, following ASX "speeding ticket". Will it be enough to tempt you, Mark? They've now run well past your $3 ceiling. I'm happy to continue holding.

[mark100]

I bought in on Friday arvo Colin at $3.25 after the Eureka report 'tip'.

The guidance today though I thought was below consensus. WHTM are forecasting NPAT around $7m, RBS - $7.7m and Microequities $8.3m. This compares with SIV's guidance today of say $7m at the top end of the range or 31cps EPS. At $3.60 the FY11 PE is around 11.5 which is neither cheap or expensive. So I took the view that the guidance was dissappointing and below market expectations and sold at $3.59-3.60!

As I mentioned earlier I think the lower tax rate last year inflated expectations for this year. I'm hoping that once the excitement around the Eureka report tip dies down the shares may drift back. I can see why you're happy to hold. I suppose I like to take the profit and then re-evaluate the situation again after the shares drift, guidance changes or the market conditions change. Sometimes it works best doing that, sometimes not!

[COLIN]

A good little jump today.

"The Big Little Train That Could!"

Plenty of would-be buyers and scarcely a seller in sight.

[mark100]

I just picked up some SIV at $3.14, a FY11 forecast PE of around 10x. Looks to be some DRP placement related selling into an illiquid buy side.

[mark100]

Nice result here. Tracking ahead of FY forecasts with EPS up 32% for the half. FY12PE looks like being around 8.5x at current pricing after adjusting for being cum a 9.5c FF div. ROE looking good at 26% annualised.

Main negative is the Balance sheet is staring to get stretched. There is still room under the finance facility to grow rental assets but I wouldn't be surprised to see a capital raising sometime in the next 12 months

[drworm]

TGA might be worth the look. To me it looks better than SIV and FXL from a self-funding perspective. I believe it only cap raised once since listing and that was wholly used for an acquisition.

[mark100]

Yes in my view it was very overpriced at $6 plus from the Montgomery sheep and others jumping in. I have been working on 12x FY13 as an approximate entry. That is still more than I would have once paid for the business but it has become a more widely known stock and lower interest rates have bumped up the PE it can trade on

[mark100]

Piss poor treatment of retail shareholders. As if a $3m SPP wasn't going to be oversubscribed!