Copper

[arco]

One of the LincolnFX members asked for a copper chart and thoughts.

Just in case anyone on ST is interested here it is.........



Commentary is available free on the blog.

Regards - Arco

[peat]

out of curiousity only as I dont have a way to trade copper what is the suggested trade here , to sell in the yellow box?

are the commodity commentaries still going to be available for free on your blog arco?

[arco]

Hi Peat. Probably dependant on what happens against that LL Doji, but maybe short if there is a confirmed reversal pattern at/in the yellow box.

Re the commodities - I will always put some free charts and commentaries on the blog, although it could vary from time to time.

[peat]

see a gartley possibility on the hourly

and have posted in a butterfly possibility as well..
in either case the trigger to short might be somewhere in the orange rectangle (when it comes back there)

and yes actually I can trade copper in Market Maker

[tricha]

At the moment nothing much moves without oil, in the future as oil goes off the platau and down the slippery slope, of Hubbards curve.

Nothing much will move without Copper. It is my belief, ( being a sparkie), it will replace oil as a commodity to keep the world moving.

With the ASX being based on mining.

I'm thinking about a new thread, called Dr Copper, an indicator on the health of the ASX.
Or should I just stick to this one.
Copper Rises Most in a Week on China’s Trade, Auto Data

By Joe Richter & Maria Kolesnikova - Feb 9, 2013 7:36 AM GMT+130


Copper futures rose the most in a week as China’s trade expanded more than forecast, and car sales jumped to a record in the Asian nation, the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals.
In January, exports from China surged 25 percent and imports climbed 29 percent from a year earlier, both topping projections by economists in Bloomberg surveys, government data showed today. Sales of passenger vehicles surged 49 percent, a state-backed trade group said.
“The Chinese data signals that business continues to pick up,” Harry Denny, a broker at Hoboken, New Jersey-based PVM Futures Inc., said in a telephone interview. “Copper is being supported by overall optimism on a recovery.”
Copper futures for March delivery rose 0.9 percent to settle at $3.7595 a pound at 1:15 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Feb. 1.
The International Copper Study Group says an average midsize car contains about 50 pounds of the metal.
Financial markets in China will close next week for the Lunar New Year. Imports of copper rose 2.9 percent in January from December, customs data showed today.
Stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 196,699 metric tons, the lowest in more than three months.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months climbed 1.1 percent to $8,294 a ton ($3.76 a pound). Aluminum, zinc tin, lead and nickel also gained.
To contact the reporters on this story: Maria Kolesnikova in London at mkolesnikova@bloomberg.net; Joe Richter in New York at jrichter1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net

[Hoop]

.......I'm thinking about a new thread, called Dr Copper, an indicator on the health of the ASX.
Or should I just stick to this one.

Hmmm... I have noticed over the previous few weeks the copper / Dow divergence...Divergences whether they come to fruition or not should always be respected as a possible warning sign.

Copper is nicknamed Dr Copper because of its ability to mirror the fortunes of the worlds economies.

if that is so...

Dr Copper is telling us that the world economy has turned around from a possible early recovery phase back down again ... and strangely the media which is always seeking bad news hasn't spotted it..... yet.!!!....

The media are barking at this Cyprus banking crisis thing, which is in itself strange really, as Cyprus is a minnow ...or better put, not big enough to be a fish but more the size a plankton lifeform in this global pond....maybe the media is sniffing around because it senses that under the murky surface of this pond lurks something much bigger and much more dangerous..


Dr Copper is beginning to suffer technical damage from this triangle pattern and with the recent triangle break downward the warning bells have started to ring.....

An economic storm somewhere could be brewing, methinks.

[Lizard]

Thanks Hoop. Although I'm glad I didn't pull the ripcord last time copper signalled a warning...

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6745-Copper-Company&p=376936&viewfull=1#post376936

However, I am looking at the chart of my portfolio and recognising that it "looks" as though gains should either slow considerably or turn negative in the coming quarter if it is not to get dangerously exponential. If it wasn't that bank deposit rates were so low, I might feel more enthused about taking profits though... instead I just find myself tempted to plough funds straight back into the market.

[Aaron]

Any guesses as to what will happen. I feel like a dummy in cash waiting for another leg down in the financial markets fighting the world central banks. The whole ideaology seems to be that we need endless growth and inflation. if that is true then I should be leveraged to a high level and wait for inflation to take care of everything. The Cyprus deal just reinforces that it is the dummys who save who get hit. It is all geared to looking after the people who have borrowed money. I am holding out but feel very frustrated and concerned.
Reasons for not investing
1/ Investments are at a high level (new highs in the US etc) buying high is not usually a good strategy, real estate in NZ is also bouyant.

2/ If doctor copper is right the real world as opposed to the financial world might be slowing down in spite of all the liquidity.

3/If Cyprus's politicians decided to default to whoever they owe money, what will happen, the bank can't appoint a liquidator for an independent state with their own army. Would that trigger a domino effect and as lenders needed to liquidate assets could there be firesale prices like march 2009 once again.

4/ What about if interest rates rose. Interest rates aren't set on the free market they are centrally controled so this is unlikely.

Reasons for investing
1/ Interest rates unlikely to increase ahead of inflation.

2/ continued money printing and debasement of currencies means cash is or will be trash. Shares and a margin loan might be a better bet

3/Still plenty of bears out ther meaning we haven't reached the top yet and in dollar terms assets values might never come down

Don't know why I bothered writing this. Just trying to justify my position in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.

[Hoop]

Thanks Hoop. Although I'm glad I didn't pull the ripcord last time copper signalled a warning...

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6745-Copper-Company&p=376936&viewfull=1#post376936

However, I am looking at the chart of my portfolio and recognising that it "looks" as though gains should either slow considerably or turn negative in the coming quarter if it is not to get dangerously exponential. If it wasn't that bank deposit rates were so low, I might feel more enthused about taking profits though... instead I just find myself tempted to plough funds straight back into the market.

Yes Liz the last time copper bounced back up from the next support down (a very strong 3.30 level combining both support and NNline together)...I'm not a great fan of trendline breaks on their own.. as an uptrend can decelerate but still go up...but in the case of Copper...this is not entirely true ...Copper seems to be a train wreck event happening in a very slow motion...If you go back to my copper company post that you highlighted and see the 5 year chart the N N line (much more reliable line) marked as the blue dotted line to watch..this has finally broken and thats the worry....That blue dotted N N line is the same line marked in yellow in my above chart .....

Now we have to be a bit careful about this ...Dr Copper is a loose economic sentiment indicator of sorts (not always reliable)...The economy and the sharemarket show a poor corellation... Copper seems to ally itself at certain times and follow a similar pattern to Equity indexes...Not all Global indexes are "in sync" atm...so you get articles written that pick the best parts of copper/equity changing at Equity cycle turnpoints with examples...ignoring the times when it doesn't happen.

The famous book The Anatomy of the Bear by Russell Napier...to which I have quoted many times on the Investing Strategies and the Secular Bear Market thread highlights the constant signal (yet to be proven wrong 0% failure rate) * Commodities Count. The end of commodity price declines also marked all 4 major equity lows, with copper playing a prominent role as it preceded or coincided with every equity rebound. Russell Napier.....
This only occurs at the bottom of an Equity Cyclic Bear Market (after the destructive C wave) Copper signals an upturn of approx 6 weeks before the Equity cyclic bottom...

Unfortunately.. media assumes copper indicates all cyclic reversal points including the end of cyclic Bull Markets as well...This is not absolutely true as there is a failure rate here.

By Watching Copper long term one gets to know its behaviour...it tends to have but not always a bad patch Copper down/equity up) during the middle of an Equity Bull Cycle.... Media becomes negative about this assuming the Bear Cycle is still operating with the end of an extraordinary rally in sight...Copper watchers will know this to be wrong (re Russell Napier's copper indicator) and they can assume it's more likely a Cyclic Bulls mid life crisis..

So why do I warn about this kind of thing in my posts??...Its an economic warning and also something unusual is happening ..A reverse correlation with copper going down/ equities going up event is lasting a long time at a point when the Bull is rather mature so its a strange mid-life crisis signal......If it is indeed a middle point of the Bull market cycle,,then the bull is going to be unusually very old when it dies,,,and the secular cycle pattern hypothesis is going to be proved wrong with the S&P500 climbing to well over the 1600 probably 2000+.....I find this as a low chance scenario

So when everything is weird and conflicting is pays to be very cautious to the point of putting your earmuffs on just in case there is a big bang...eh. (by all means stay in the market and ride out the good times but caution it with tightened stops and applied heightened discipline....earmuffs used to keep out media noise)...but if it all turns to custard get out, except the party is over... don't stay in and rely on hope and denial.

Its common (but not a certainty) to have a reverse correlation after the end bull cycle by having copper going up / equities down...That I assume is what the media may "mistakenly" be picking up on at this moment but they have got the reverse thing the wrong way around....This scenario typically brings out the denial of the end of the bull market in most people...Copper going up assuming an "growing" economy yet the equity market is tanking for some "unknown" (to the FA people) reason.

[Hoop]

with the S&P500 climbing to well over the 1600 probably 2000+.....I find this as a low chance scenario

So when everything is weird and conflicting is pays to be very cautious to the point of putting your earmuffs on just in case there is a big bang...eh. (stay in the market with tightened stops and applied heightened discipline....earmuffs used to keep out media noise))

Its common (but not a certainty) to have a reverse correlation after the end bull cycle by having copper going up / equities down...That I assume is what the media may "mistakenly" be picking up on at this moment but they have got the reverse thing the wrong way around....This scenario typically brings out the denial of the end of the bull market in most people...Copper going up assuming an "growing" economy yet the equity market is tanking for some "unknown" (to the FA people) reason.

I'll attempt to show a chart Copper + Equity 4 Indexes when I get some time....The adhoc chart I'm using is showing the NZX50 out in front as the best performer all the indexes are rising with the copper uncharacteristically to the naked eye diverging against the rest