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Thread: Copper

  1. #11
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    Hoop where is the best place to find commodity prices on the web. Are commodity prices considered a leading indicator of economic activity. The Baltic Dry Index was also put up as a economic indicator but is the current low price for shipping just a reflection of an oversupply of ships to economic activity. The baltic dry index has been bumping along at price levels only seen briefly in 2009 but now look to be more permanent.
    I guess company earnings are what keep share prices up, low interest rates and a plentiful money supply will help. Using current low interest rates to justify share price valuations might end badly if interest rates go up but it is hard to imagine a day when interest rates will go up again.

  2. #12
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    Hi Aaron.

    This is your easy to access in your face front page from tradingcharts...this may suit your needs if you are in a hurry... it also gives a deeper look as well...

    check out the sites below as well... interactive stuff is very useful.


    Charted sites below gives you the ability to chart online with downloading software..

    http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/co...ge.html#30days

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui a very good site once you get use to it..access to the stock codes can be a bit painful ...but once memorized you're off and away

    An interesting part to Stockcharts is the interactive chart (sector etfs) showing the different sectors there is a 200day default slider(you can change the time frame to suit your purpose)...note how each sector has its heyday at a specific time of the Equity cycle...e.g Energy (oil) near the end of a Bull cycle...Also highlights the bubbles Tech bubble 2000 and its demise in 2001...Ultities displaying their lagging signatures...Also of importance is the falling away of industrials and materials in 2006 but the Equity market is upward and bullish (bull cycle) indicating another example that the stockmarket and the economy are not correlated...

    http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/Sto...NYMEX/QL.C.htm

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/def...seen&dist=ctbc





    I use Incredible Charts as a source for all commodities data
    ..it has access to many database providers...in fact I use it for nearly everything..including most of my posted charts.
    It is an on line charted software package but you have to download the program to use it...The free version is excellent..

    As with all charting you have the ability to compare sectors....indexes, individual stocks, or compare with anything really this is valuable as the human mind loses perspective when using recall to compare, and is thus regarded as a highly unreliable option.
    Last edited by Hoop; 22-03-2013 at 10:55 AM.

  3. #13
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    Default Speak of the (Media) devil..

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post

    ........Now we have to be a bit careful about this ...Dr Copper is a loose economic sentiment indicator of sorts (not always reliable)...

    ........By Watching Copper long term one gets to know its behaviour...it tends to have but not always a bad patch Copper down/equity up) during the middle of an Equity Bull Cycle....

    ........So why do I warn about this kind of thing in my posts??...Its an economic warning and also something unusual is happening ..A reverse correlation with copper going down/ equities going up event is lasting a long time at a point when the Bull is rather mature so its a strange mid-life crisis signal.....

    ........So when everything is weird and conflicting is pays to be very cautious to the point of putting your earmuffs on just in case there is a big bang...eh. (by all means stay in the market and ride out the good times but caution it with tightened stops and applied heightened discipline....earmuffs used to keep out media noise)...

    ........Its common (but not a certainty) to have a reverse correlation after the end bull cycle by having copper going up / equities down...That I assume is what the media may "mistakenly" be picking up on at this moment but they have got the reverse thing the wrong way around.....
    Yep...I'm cynical of the Media..It one of my biases in my life.....

    The media makes news of this happening now and is suggesting the "now" reasons using all sorts of accurate economic knowledge....yet it has been happening for months......and.....it is a cyclic thing and although not 100% occurrence it often happens at a similar time within each cycle (mid life Equity Bull Cycle)...History tell you so..so history is a good teacher not the media ..

    My homework says these factors may all contribute but its the same game that plays out often (not always) with past mid life Equity Bull Cycles**.. History says the game doesn't change, only its players.

    ** (opinion only)..Hoop thinks this game was delayed and has started late in the day (cycle)...

    A chart to clarify yet to be posted


    Commodities Corner
    March 22, 2013, 10:20 a.m. EDT
    Here’s why copper has lost its indicator role

    By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
    Dr. Copper is usually a good indicator for economic trends and markets.
    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Dr. Copper, as the industrial metal is known to investors, might be offering Wall Street the wrong economic prognosis, or maybe we’re just misreading it.
    After all, a physician’s handwriting is tough to read, and so is that of copper, whose “doctor” title refers to it as an indicator for economic trends and equity markets.
    “Correlations have certainly broken down between equities and copper prices,” said Brinker Capital senior portfolio manager Andrew Rosenberger.
    Click to Play
    Why copper is less of an indicator

    Copper is usually a good indicator for economic trends and equity markets. MarketWatch's Jim Jelter explains why that has changed.

    “Market participants used to look towards copper as an indicator of equity returns,” he said. “That may be true in a capital-expenditure driven economy like we had in 2005-2008, but this recovery, to date, has been devoid of meaningful capex.”
    Data on the metal’s prices and U.S. equities show a directional divergence, with stocks doing well while copper isn’t, and with the economy showing modest growth.
    Copper futures prices (CNS:HGK3) dropped more than 6% year-to-date as of Thursday. They gained 6.3% for 2012, but that was after a nearly 23% drop in 2011.
    Meanwhile, U.S. equities have rallied, with the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIJIA) up over 10% so far this year, after gains of 7.3% last year and 5.5% in 2011.
    For all of 2012, the U.S. economy increased at a 2.2% pace, compared with 1.8% in 2011.
    The Federal Reserve this week said it expects the economy to grow at a moderate pace, and economists project growth in the first quarter to rise to 2.5% after barely growing in the fourth quarter.
    But if you look closely, you might see a good reason why copper’s not an accurate indicator of economic conditions and equity markets right now.
    U.S. Bank Wealth Management senior investment strategist Robert Haworth said copper is reflecting its underlying supply and demand fundamentals.
    “Its economic signal is slightly muted by excess supply currently,” he said. “We believe global economic growth should accelerate over the course of this year, taking up excess supplies and returning copper to its status as a signal of economic activity.”
    Copper’s fall

    Copper’s performance has been disappointing in light of some of the latest economic indicators, which point to improvements in the U.S. and Chinese manufacturing sectors.

    Reuters Enlarge Image
    A dockworker arranges a shipment of copper.
    “There is overall optimism about the American economy steadily recovering, unless of course the costs of sequestration have a greater-than-expected impact,” said Ted Arnold, an independent, London-based consulting-minerals economist.
    And although “no one doubts for a minute that China will not grow this year,” there are an “awful lot of bulls out there expecting much more from Chinese growth than now looks likely,” he said.
    Business conditions for Chinese manufacturers saw further improvement in March, according to HSBC data Thursday. The U.S. flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also rose in March.
    Data Thursday also showed that the German manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in March, and the preliminary composite PMI for the euro zone dropped to a four-month low.
    Overall, “copper has been a flop as of late, as the growth prospects have been dimmed,” mostly owing to the Chinese government moving to reign in its overheated housing market, said Price Futures Group senior market analyst Phil Flynn.
    “Sharply rising Chinese home prices are raising expectations of more government clamp-downs on the sector, thereby reducing the Chinese demand for copper,” he said.
    And true to China’s usual veil of secrecy, the International Copper Study Group said that based on preliminary data, anecdotal evidence suggests unreported inventories held in bonded warehouses in China increased significantly during 2012, and Chinese industrial use of copper might have been significantly less than apparent use.
    “Accounting for this inventory increase would significantly alter the calculated market balance,” the ICSG said. In other words, there could be a large surplus of Chinese copper supplies the market doesn’t know about.
    “There is too much copper and too little demand since the China facade of rampant growth is being revealed for the farce that it is,” said Jeffrey Sica, president and chief investment officer of Sica Wealth Management.
    Much of the commercial real-estate in China sits vacant as “proof that China cares more about the appearances of growth than actual growth.”
    Prognosticator

    Beyond that, copper still has the hints of being the great prognosticator many expect it to be — it’s just not as easy to read its forecast.
    “Some market participants consider copper as a good predictor of the economy,” said Price Asset Management managing director of institutional sales Alan Konn.
    However, “how far in advance does it really predict?” he said. “There are constantly major swings in prices that provide little guidance on the economy a year or two out.”
    In the near term, “it is a combination of short-term demand and supply, inventory levels and sentiment that drive the price,” said Konn, whose firm specializes in commodities for institutional and high-net-worth investors. “It is the industrialization throughout the world that generates long-term demand.”
    That said, the good news is that China’s economy is still growing, albeit at a slower pace than in the past, and that’s been the driving force for commodities in general.
    China is “still in demand mode,” and the U.S. is starting to see improved economic numbers, said Kevin Kerr, president and chief executive offer at Kerr Trading International.
    “It’s certainly not a barn-burner economy, but it’s at least starting to stem the bleeding,” he said. “If that trend continues, then demand for copper should pick up as copper prices seemed to have found a foothold here at these levels.”
    On Thursday, May copper settled at $3.45 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 2.5% for the week to date.
    Right now, the metal is acting more like an investment than a commodity — “an investment in the future global recovery and demand,” Kerr said.





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  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Thanks Hoop. Although I'm glad I didn't pull the ripcord last time copper signalled a warning...

    http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6745-Copper-Company&p=376936&viewfull=1#post376936


    However, I am looking at the chart of my portfolio and recognising that it "looks" as though gains should either slow considerably or turn negative in the coming quarter if it is not to get dangerously exponential. If it wasn't that bank deposit rates were so low, I might feel more enthused about taking profits though... instead I just find myself tempted to plough funds straight back into the market.
    Hi Liz. That past copper warning (On the copper/company thread ) the Copper/DOW were in sync and they did successfully signal an Equity Bull market cycle correction..surprisingly that correction was very small ...Both recovered well and went on to record higher highs as expected...Long term buy and hold investors should not be too worried about bull market corrections... That post just highlighted coppers indication of a correction...the short termers get out then back in.
    The forex thread investors would be more interested in these in sync stuff with one just ahead of the other..e.g coppers half a day equity pre-warnings.

    Liz...You responded to my latest post possibly because you are sensing a possible change.....due to some weird stuff going on.
    At the moment copper is out of sync copper down equity up is a weird set up ...this copper/dow strange intereaction last happened 5 years ago.
    I have posted this on the Goldilocks and the 3 bears thread you and some others may be interested in having a look.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Hmmm... I have noticed over the previous few weeks the copper / Dow divergence...Divergences whether they come to fruition or not should always be respected as a possible warning sign.

    Copper is nicknamed Dr Copper because of its ability to mirror the fortunes of the worlds economies.

    if that is so...

    Dr Copper is telling us that the world economy has turned around from a possible early recovery phase back down again ... and strangely the media which is always seeking bad news hasn't spotted it..... yet.!!!....

    The media are barking at this Cyprus banking crisis thing, which is in itself strange really, as Cyprus is a minnow ...or better put, not big enough to be a fish but more the size a plankton lifeform in this global pond....maybe the media is sniffing around because it senses that under the murky surface of this pond lurks something much bigger and much more dangerous..


    Dr Copper is beginning to suffer technical damage from this triangle pattern and with the recent triangle break downward the warning bells have started to ring.....

    An economic storm somewhere could be brewing, methinks.

    The Copper/Dow divergence has widened..as this an unstable scenario..either copper will have to correct, or the DOW has a bull market correction (cyclic reversal?) or both (a temporary overcorrect).

    Copper update chart
    The symmetrical triangle break warning bells rang true


  6. #16
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    The Baltic shipping rates on Copper have gone through the floor since April 1.

  7. #17
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    Here's a view on the longer term outlook for copper.

    http://www.resourcesrising.com.au/in...a=read&sid=526

  8. #18
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    Supply and demand......mmm......makes sense.
    h2

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Here's a view on the longer term outlook for copper.

    http://www.resourcesrising.com.au/in...a=read&sid=526
    It seems this article hasn't updated what has happened this week...There has been a significant fall in inventory levels from very high to very high levels refer Kitcometals... the rapid fall may or may not be sustainable but the copper price may indicate it is sustainable as the price seems to have bottomed out at $3.07 (see the last updated chart)



    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    The Copper/Dow divergence has widened..as this an unstable scenario..either copper will have to correct, or the DOW has a bull market correction (cyclic reversal?) or both (a temporary overcorrect).

    Copper update chart
    The symmetrical triangle break warning bells rang true


  10. #20
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    Default Is copper ending its 2.75 year downtrend and entering into a new Bullish phase???

    Update:
    yes copper did bottom out at 3.04 right on target and in doing so has set a strong near hortizontal support floor which is the base of this descending triangle pattern.
    There are faint bullish signs that the Copper price maybe entering a new phase

    However the faint bullish chart behaviour are cautionary signs at the moment....From the chart Copper has yet to move outside its shorter term rectangle pattern and there is a good argument that the descending dotted line is the upper part of the longer term descending triangle which, if so, would indicate that the Copper price has not broken out yet...

    Descending triangles are known as bearish continuation patterns but 36% of the time the price does breakout upwards (Bulkowski)

    Also of note.... both patterns can not survive within each other for much longer there WILL BE be a technical breakout soon...

    Last edited by Hoop; 19-12-2013 at 08:30 AM.

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