sharetrader
Page 1 of 5 12345 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 49
  1. #1
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,443

    Default Is the worst over or is it still to come

    I started buying shares based on broker recommendations around the market peak (Was it November 2008). After the crash and with share purchase plans and buying some more shares at the bottom I have a few gains but a whole lot of losses. My idea was to invest for the long term.
    Reading some articles from the market oracle and the daily reckoning etc I can't help thinking that there is worse to come.
    I have trouble selling my losses as I will crystalise them when I sell the shares but then again if there is worse to come I could always buy them back cheaper in a years time.
    From reading i understand market timing is difficult at best but it could also be profitable if you get it right.

    The question may have already been asked somewhere else in this forum but should I cut my losses and wait for the next bottom on the share market or is this really the beginning of a long slow recovery.

  2. #2
    Member RazorX's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    168

    Default

    If you are investing long term, no use selling every time the market goes down - you'll only lose money. If you are trading on the other hand you'd probably want a good stop loss strategy. My shares if the go wrong they suddenly become investments . As long as the company is strong enough to stay afloat I'd keep them until the share market recovers.

    (Disc - I'm not highly experienced in shares so don't take my word for it)
    "Contrariwise", continued Tweedledee, "If it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't.
    "Today is already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore" H Hazlitt

  3. #3
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,434

    Default

    $64 million question !!!!

    personally I dont see how it can be over.... but in saying that look at the opportunities that have presented themselves over the last year , i think it pays to be flexible and to operate using sound asset allocation and money management techniques .
    A clever investor like Phaedrus fully admits he has no idea what the future will bring he merely defines precisely how he will react to it when the signals are given.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #4
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    8,427

    Default

    personal I believe keeping up with the latest from the likes of -Marc Faber-Jim rogers-peter schiff-max keiser---on U-tube or their personal sites -these guys have called many positive an negative market moves over the last 30yrs an unlike 90% of the analyst on CNBC,BBC,ABS etc they get it right 90% of the time so IMHO worth listen to..

    -the latest I watched from Marc Faber is very bearish long term USD ,DOW world SM's ,credit, bonds- neutral- sharemarket short term he is picking the DOW could go as high as 1150 before going down hard---he's Bullish-Gold,silver bullion -

    -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTj18PaTyiI
    Last edited by JBmurc; 10-03-2010 at 11:01 AM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." Carlos Slim Helu

  5. #5
    Member skeet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    248

    Default

    One way I try to look at my stocks if they are heading south

    When a SP slump occurs I remind myself of the reasons why I bought a
    stock in the first place. If the fundamentals haven't changed, I hold or continue to accumulate


    Guess this applies more to a single sp slump than rather a market crash
    Last edited by skeet; 12-03-2010 at 08:20 AM. Reason: spelling
    "Gold is money, everything else is credit"- J.P. Morgan

  6. #6
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    10

    Default

    I believe that economists and brokers are wrapped up in their own little worlds[ which are mainly dreamtime] they have advised me to buy and i have lost, they have advised me not to buy and i have lost. the capital gains are nice to have; but with the market at the moment dividends better than fixed interest are the way to go.
    ANYBODY OUT THERE KNOW MORE THAN THAT???

  7. #7
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    3,045

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian View Post
    I believe that economists and brokers are wrapped up in their own little worlds[ which are mainly dreamtime] they have advised me to buy and i have lost, they have advised me not to buy and i have lost. the capital gains are nice to have; but with the market at the moment dividends better than fixed interest are the way to go.
    ANYBODY OUT THERE KNOW MORE THAN THAT???
    The numbers coming out of the US is looking good with a recovery. The numbers coming out of China and Aust is too good, so they have to put on the brakes. All this is a sign that the global economy is recovering. You will have to be very selective to make money as the market have already factored into some form of a recovery by putting on 60% in the last year.

  8. #8
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    8,427

    Default yeah going off CNBC an other major media sources ....

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    The numbers coming out of the US is looking good with a recovery. The numbers coming out of China and Aust is too good, so they have to put on the brakes. All this is a sign that the global economy is recovering. You will have to be very selective to make money as the market have already factored into some form of a recovery by putting on 60% in the last year.
    yeah going off CNBC an other major media sources your'd think world credit problems were all sorted an not going cause any problems sadly the fact is volumes in the markets aren't large either on the sellers or the buyers still DOW reaches a new high overnight so in the mean time things are all right.

    The fact is the US,UK etc should be cutting back spending an paying off their debts instead they are ticking up trillion's to keep failed economic systems alive ..for a couple more months yrs who know's
    but the fact is without the free money + low rates the world would be working through a major depression with bad businesses failing an good ones taking over with new future of better lower debt nation's

    It's like a person having a business they doesn't make a profit year after year but has a major investor in the company that is also the bank loaning the money also the bank has a deal with the government for free money till the bank also start's making money this is happening all through the US an is the reason why the US has 13trillion in debt it can't pay back.
    the current new US health care overhaul is going cost near on a trillion so TAX will increase on a nation that can't stop the debts increasing......
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." Carlos Slim Helu

  9. #9
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    8,427

    Default China?

    "Michael Pettis from Beijing University argues that China's reserves of $2.4 trillion - arguably $3 trillion - are a sign of weakness, not strength. Only twice before in modern history has a country amassed such a stash equal to 5pc-6pc of global GDP: the US in the 1920s, and Japan in the 1980s. Each time preceeded depression.

    The reserves cannot be used internally to support China's economy. They are dead weight, beyond any level needed for macro-credibility. Indeed, they are the ultimate indictment of China's dysfunctional strategy, which is to buy $30bn to $40bn of foreign bonds every month to hold down the yuan, refusing to let the economy adjust to trade realities. The result is over-investment in plant, flooding the world with goods at wafer-thin export margins. China's over-capacity in steel is now greater than Europe's output."
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." Carlos Slim Helu

  10. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    723

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    "Michael Pettis from Beijing University argues that China's reserves of $2.4 trillion - arguably $3 trillion - are a sign of weakness, not strength. Only twice before in modern history has a country amassed such a stash equal to 5pc-6pc of global GDP: the US in the 1920s, and Japan in the 1980s. Each time preceeded depression.

    The reserves cannot be used internally to support China's economy. They are dead weight, beyond any level needed for macro-credibility. "
    I think they are wrong, China is making inroads into expanding its export markets. That will see their trade surplus as well as reserves plummet this year and next, followed by their exponential rise unless they can keep investing in third world countries. While the Gurus you follow keep blowing their "The end of world is nigh" horns, global political leaders seem to be working jointly to reflate assets and economy. While their solution may not be ideal, it is working. The US economy and world trade are recovering, and it is those who fail to see that these green shoots are strengthening that have got their "heads in sand" ...

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •