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  1. #281
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    It well might do, though I think there is is (rightly or wrongly) more money in dental than in child care ;
    Normalised ebit margins are about the same ...and probably higher than looking after old people
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #282
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    BP...how much would you pay for the 36 cent divie ....considering all the risks involved.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #283
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BP...how much would you pay for the 36 cent divie ....considering all the risks involved.
    Good question. Don't like though to value companies based on their divvie - too much risk they pay at some stage divvie out of their capital, and we know how this goes.

    Difficult as well to establish for Abano a trustworthy "average" EPS, given that it used to jump around widely over the years. However - if we assume that the analyst forecasts are right and the dental business is steady, than forward EPS seems to be around (or slightly above) 50 cents per share.

    Using the famous factor 8.5 from Grahams formula (and accepting a number of risks), this would mean that ABA would be fairly priced around a shareprice of $4.25; It might be (all things being equal) a bargain with a $3 handle and a not too high decimal behind the 3 .

    Ouch. Was this the board fighting a couple of years ago with teeth and claws against a takeover offer North of $10? I think this board has some explaining to do ... maybe I need to amend my "Never Again" list.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #284
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    ... and you are probably right.

    Interesting question is - is there any price where you think it is a buy again? I guess in a way they do remind me at the (Australian) Greencross (vetcare and animal food). They had an amazing growth phase fuelled by lots of aquisitons - the shareprice boomed and peaked above $10. They made the cardinals mistake most growth by aquisition companies do at some stage - they started to pay too much for additional growth and market realised at that stage that they are in a bubble and any additional aquisition will reduce PE ratio. Shareprice crashed subsequently down to something like $3.70 ... and then somebody came and took the company over (around $5.50).

    Realistic scenario for ABA as well?
    What price would I buy.?
    I doubt I would buy back in at any price, as I do not like their business model.
    I prefer to pay a fair price for a good company,rather than a good price for a fair company.
    Last edited by percy; 26-03-2019 at 10:52 AM.

  5. #285
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Guidance not that good for F19 .....not unexpected

    Share price now below $5 ....not unexpected

    Probably more pain to come I reckon
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #286
    Guru
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    Went to a Lumino today - not going back.

    That's 1 less customer.

  7. #287
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Went to a Lumino today - not going back.

    That's 1 less customer.
    but why Bob? What exactly caused your discontent, and why would you expect another provider to be better?
    Or is it just that you hate paying dentists bills? I know I do, as they always seem so extreme.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #288
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Went to a Lumino today - not going back.

    That's 1 less customer.
    Try my dentist.
    Nigel Bratten at Papanui Dental Centre ,457 Papanui Road,ChCh.ph 352 6019.
    Last edited by percy; 26-03-2019 at 09:17 PM.

  9. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Try my dentist.
    Nigel Bratten at Papanui Dental Centre ,457 Papanui Road,ChCh.ph 352 6019.
    Is that next door to a Turners site Perc..?.

    The ticket clippings must be getting quite lucrative by now... Lol...

  10. #290
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    Is that next door to a Turners site Perc..?.

    The ticket clippings must be getting quite lucrative by now... Lol...
    Charity on my part.
    As the tax dept says "I am here to help you."

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