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  1. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valleytrader View Post
    Does anyone have a view on this company? I see that the price ended last week at $5.95 per share, and has a dividend yield of over 6% (according to directbroking).
    They were $10 not so long ago.

  2. #272
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 777 View Post
    They were $10 not so long ago.
    which almost certainly has to mean they are a better buy now than then

    one needs to consider the ongoing viability of the business model namely commoditizing and franchising dentistry. at some point the easy fruit will have been taken and growth will be harder to obtain.
    Last edited by peat; 11-03-2019 at 12:28 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #273
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Took a lot of buzz words and good strategy stuff to finally say this year’s profit going to be 10% less than last years. No real surprise here

    And cutting back big time on acquisitions ...where’s growth going to come from now?



    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...450/297360.pdf
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #274
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    A lot of capital required for acquisitions,which have a very poor return on capital..
    Very little growth from each practice.
    Revenue growth is mainly driven by acquisitions.
    I do not think dentist have "pricing power".
    A visiit to the dentist is easily put off when times are tough.
    Australian mortgage requirements,ie a stop to interest only loans will cause hardships.
    Increasing mortgage interest rates will work against ABA's clients too.
    Posted 03-08-2018.
    I still rate ABA as avoid.

  5. #275
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Posted 03-08-2018.
    I still rate ABA as avoid.
    Agree percy

    A few months ago they said that they acquired 14 practices in H1 and they would contribute $6m extra annualised ebitda

    Appears not ...or if they are the existing practices are going back fast

    One good thing as acquisitions canned for a while they say (hint) no need for a capital raise.

    Would be surprised if share price $4 something soon.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #276
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    The announcement said npat forecast to be $9m (before year-end review of goodwill)

    Oh dear ....wonder how much impairments will be ...ie how much they have overpaid for practices

    Non-cash of course so no worries and won’t affect dividends ..that’s good
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #277
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Posted 03-08-2018.
    I still rate ABA as avoid.
    ... and you are probably right.

    Interesting question is - is there any price where you think it is a buy again? I guess in a way they do remind me at the (Australian) Greencross (vetcare and animal food). They had an amazing growth phase fuelled by lots of aquisitons - the shareprice boomed and peaked above $10. They made the cardinals mistake most growth by aquisition companies do at some stage - they started to pay too much for additional growth and market realised at that stage that they are in a bubble and any additional aquisition will reduce PE ratio. Shareprice crashed subsequently down to something like $3.70 ... and then somebody came and took the company over (around $5.50).

    Realistic scenario for ABA as well?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 26-03-2019 at 08:04 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #278
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    ... and you are probably right.

    Interesting question is - is there any price where you think it is a buy again? I guess in a way they do remind me at the (Australian) Greencross (vetcare and animal food). They had an amazing growth phase fuelled by lots of aquisitons - the shareprice boomed and peaked above $10. They made the cardinals mistake most growth by aquisition companies do at some stage - they started to pay too much for additional growth and market realised at that stage that they are in a bubble and any additional aquisition will reduce PE ratio. Shareprice crashed subsequently down to something like $3.70 ... and then somebody came and took the company over (around $5.50).

    Realistic scenario for ABA as well?
    On the other hand could go the Evolve way
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #279
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    On the other hand could go the Evolve way
    It well might do, though I think there is is (rightly or wrongly) more money in dental than in child care ;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #280
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Agree percy

    A few months ago they said that they acquired 14 practices in H1 and they would contribute $6m extra annualised ebitda

    Appears not ...or if they are the existing practices are going back fast

    One good thing as acquisitions canned for a while they say (hint) no need for a capital raise.

    Would be surprised if share price $4 something soon.
    "and a lift in revenue per clinical day"..?
    Try charging customers more per visit,when Aba are known as charging plenty will not work.
    Getting dentists to see more customers per day will not work as they have trouble keeping their existing customers,let alone attracting more customers.
    Try "add ons" does not work,as customers are not stupid.
    Really think their business model is suspect,therefore it would be hard to value the business.
    The days of paying too much for "roll outs" are well past us.
    They were correct to advise there will be no further capital raise.
    Time has shown the money Aba were making was in hearing.Since sold.
    Last edited by percy; 26-03-2019 at 08:29 AM.

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