ABA Abano health

[peat]

How likely is this deal going to go through?

that's the crunch eh junh?
reasonable arbitrage available for those willing to take the risk

[BlackPeter]

Plateauing now for some time, but one year chart certainly does not look inspirational. My question today is however - did the analysts predict this underperformance one year ago?

ABA's shareprice peaked in February 2019 at $6.51 and analysts (consensus) forecast for February 2020 was $8.59, which means analysts predicted the SP to go up. They have been wrong - the ABA shareprice in February 2020 actually peaked at $5.39, i.e. instead of the forecasted rise of 32% did punters get a 17% drop. Ouch.

Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 an "Outperform"(7.5/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will outperform the NZX. This prediction was wrong as well, while the NZX went up by 21% did ABA drop by 17% (i.e. ABA underperformed over the last 12 months the NZX50 by a woeful 38%.

Both consensus predictions (price as well as comparative performance to the NZX50) have been in this case clearly wrong and anybody relying on the analyst consensus in this case would have lost heaps of money.

I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts

11 stocks checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/11; analyst hitrate: 9%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 3/11; analyst hitrate: 27%

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed the announcement for the special meeting - looks like OIO happy and takeover will go ahead (obviously subject to SH approval).

Interesting is the notice re catering ... I suppose ABA will be in that regard a trailblazer for future Covid-19 SM's and AGM's:

Given the unusual circumstances around COVID-19, Abano is taking precautionary measures for the meeting including:
Every attendee at the meeting will be required to provide their contact details
There will be access to hand sanitiser both outside and inside the meeting room
There will be no refreshments served before or after the special meeting in order to limit social contact amongst a large group of people.

No need anymore to join these meetings for the delicious food , but who knows - maybe it is possible to pinch a bottle of hand sanitizer or two?

Sign of the times ...

[peat]

Just noticed the announcement for the special meeting - looks like OIO happy and takeover will go ahead (obviously subject to SH approval).

Interesting is the notice re catering ... I suppose ABA will be in that regard a trailblazer for future Covid-19 SM's and AGM's:




No need anymore to join these meetings for the delicious food , but who knows - maybe it is possible to pinch a bottle of hand sanitizer or two?

Sign of the times ...

Sounds very joyless not having any catering.
Are we sure there is no withdrawal possibility on this t/o?

[winner69]

Virus making life hard for dentists ...and screwed up the takeover ....if it goes ahead it will be way less than $5.70

[BlackPeter]

Virus making life hard for dentists ...and screwed up the takeover ....if it goes ahead it will be way less than $5.70

True, apparently - they are running out of masks. Horders bought them all up. Isn't it interesting to see the scum of humanity coming out of from under their rocks?

Still - not sure why it is that difficult for industry to ramp up mask production ... for sure - any marketing person worth their salt must have realized latest end of January that all sort of medical masks will be in high demand soon.

[junh]

True, apparently - they are running out of masks. Horders bought them all up. Isn't it interesting to see the scum of humanity coming out of from under their rocks?

Still - not sure why it is that difficult for industry to ramp up mask production ... for sure - any marketing person worth their salt must have realized latest end of January that all sort of medical masks will be in high demand soon.

Chinese factories make the raw materials for the masks.

[Joshuatree]

"• The Scheme Implementation Agreement with Adams NZ Bidco Limited has been terminated as a Material Adverse Change has occurred. Both parties have agreed they have no other liability to each other, as a result of the termination." NZX

[whatsup]

Virus making life hard for dentists ...and screwed up the takeover ....if it goes ahead it will be way less than $5.70

Slipped this week from $1-70 down to $1-17 atm, IF they go under .75 they are one of the best buys on the N Z X , imho.

[BlackPeter]

Slipped this week from $1-70 down to $1-17 atm, IF they go under .75 they are one of the best buys on the N Z X , imho.

Not sure I'd agree. Cheap does not mean that they are a good buy.

Their latest balance sheet (Nov 2019) looked already pretty unhealthy - lots of debts (debt to liabilities 68.5%) and the assets only hold up by plenty of quite questionable goodwill. Might be worth Zilch these days.

NTA is a big red number and current assets are minute (well, have been in November 2019 and I suppose they found little ways to increase their cash during the lock down).

Share price has been only holdup by the takeover promise .. and I see why the suitor (Bidco) decided to drop them like a hot potato - well, at the agreed price. They might get anything interesting much cheaper when they buy from the liquidator / receiver.

Not sure though whether there will be lots of fun for share holders, no matter how cheap they buy in.