ABA Abano health

[peat]

Yes ABA share price is in a very strong up trend.
What do you do? Follow the share price, or your own experiences?
I tend to back my own experiences.Must admit I am often wrong.!.lol.
I note from my post#129 I sold out on 29-11-2013,Seem to remember it was over $8.Since then the funds have been put to good use elsewhere...

I dont really back my own experiences as I see them as anecdotal evidence with no statistical validity. I dislike other peoples anecdotal comments on these forums for the same reason. Anecdotal evidence can build into a perspective but it is largely random imo.

But strong price action is convincing as it clearly demonstrates conviction by many players ! Equally I wont buy at any price of course and will look for pullbacks.
I'm currently reviewing another company in this sector..... will post soonish.

[percy]

I was once told if you are visiting a new town,look to see where the workers go for their lunch,and follow them.It really works.
If you had brought an Ernest Adams Peanut brownie that tasted so horrible, you took the packet back to their factory,and was told they had a fauly batch of peanuts, and did not know where they ended up, and so decided to sell their shares because of it, you would have had great timing.
If a couple of years ago you have asked your Auckland friends whether they shopped at Nosh,you would have found out they shopped at Faro Fresh,and so you would have sold your VIL at well over a $1.20.
If you took Postie Plus vouchers as your Westpac Visa rewards and had trouble redeeming them,having to have them replaced three times,you would have done well selling your Postie Plus shares at over 90 cents.
If you owned WHS shares and had the misfortune to have visited one of their stores you would have sold their shares.
Every time I go to Westfield Riccarton I always check out Lovisca [lov asx] store.Always busy.Had my grandaughterv and her friend do a store visit for me.No need we always shop there.
Greymouth Top 10.Sunday ,Monday,Tuesday nights.At least 10 camper Vans.Mostly THL's Mauri and Britz,a couple of Apollo and one Juicy.I own THL.
When The Chairman and CFO of Ryman tell you they put their mother/Nana into a Ryman Village it gives you a sense of well being.
When you see a Fresh Choice check out operator shopping at Pak " Save you know you are shopping at the right store.
I always back my own experiences.

[macduffy]

Quite right, percy. I think about buying Abano shares every time I visit the dentist. I never have bought any.

But I had the sense to sell my Pumpkin Patch shares before I grew out of their clothes!

[percy]

Quite right, percy. I think about buying Abano shares every time I visit the dentist. I never have bought any.

But I had the sense to sell my Pumpkin Patch shares before I grew out of their clothes!

Absolute classic.
Made my day...lol.

[hardt]

Extremely happy with this one... taking them up on that rights offer as well.

[percy]

Extremely happy with this one... taking them up on that rights offer as well.

Looking at ABA's chart I see why you are extremely happy.
Well done.

[winner69]

Ignoring anecdotal evidence is expensive ......

[percy]

Ignoring anecdotal evidence is expensive ......

Would appear to have been very profitable for ABA shareholders.

[hardt]

Currently Abano has around 2-3% market share of Trans-Tasman dentistry - The industry is valued at $11BN per year and growing...

As the second largest in the industry ( 85% brand recognition too ) they are aiming for a 10% market share in the long term.

There is incredible room for growth through acquisition as the dentistry industry is open to but untapped by corporatisation

Obviously it is now down to execution of the growth plan, we will have to wait and see how they expand their brand ( because it is a brand )

Their board consists of very successful individuals that are highly motivated to grow shareholder value.

Assuming plans for continual investments into expansion move along well - potential for Abano in the below model... *end result may vary*

ABANO HEALTHCARE LIMITED		FY15		FY16		FY17		FY18E		FY19E		FY20E
Operating Revenues Generated		222.203		213.744		233.532		255.718		282.568		308.282	9.70%
Patient consumables and cost of products sold		-37.020		-32.290		-34.711		-37.132		-40.808		-44.484
Employee benefits		-118.148		-117.535		-127.574		-137.613		-151.237		-164.860
Occupancy costs		-16.302		-16.377		-18.012		-20.184		-21.760		-23.720
Acquisition and transaction costs		-1.154		-0.649		-0.718		-1.500		-1.649		-1.797
Other operating expenses		-20.863		-21.752		-22.788		-24.890		-26.183		-28.541
Other operating income		0.845		1.452		1.652		1.852		2.035		2.219
Operating Expenses Incurred		-192.642		-187.151		-202.151		-219.467		-239.601		-261.184	8.92%
Underlying EBITDA Generated		29.561		26.593		31.381		36.251		42.967		47.097	14.49%
Operating Margin		13.30%		12.44%		13.44%		14.18%		15.21%		15.28%	4.37%
Depreciation and Amortisation		-10.104		-9.735		-10.226		-10.901		-11.609		-12.306
Finance Expenses		-5.796		-6.066		-5.248		-5.668		-6.036		-6.429
Tax Expenses		-4.568		-3.346		-4.954		-5.511		-7.090		-7.942
Underlying NPAT		9.093		7.446		11.600		14.171		18.231		20.421	20.75%
Underlying EPS		0.431		0.350		0.540		0.550		0.700		0.776	12.80%
Shares on Issue - Millions		21.10		21.27		21.47		25.76		26.04		26.33
Dividend pay out to NPAT ratio		58.01%		85.70%		66.62%		68.00%		68.00%		68.00%
After tax dividend per share		0.25		0.30		0.36		0.37		0.48		0.53

Would also state the chart looks great, Forbarr have a good pick on their hands with this one IMO

Attachment 9235

[tobo]

LOL, I thought Abano wasn't much of a brand name, I just realised Lumino is the brandname in NZ!