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Thread: MFT

  1. #1
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    Default MFT

    Hey mon, there doesn't appear to be any talk of MFT lately mon so I'll kick it off here. To me, MFT appears to be have good fundamentals.
    1. They pay a regular dividend of 6.5cps or about 3.5% net.
    2. Excluding OWN's, MFT returned $12m npat. This equates to a PE of around 15 ($1.88 shareprice / 0.125 eps). MFT have now sold OWN's non-core loss making assets and OWN should now contribute to npat.
    3. Prior to aquiring OWN, MFT's share price in July 03 was about $1.30 and OWN's was about $0.95. Now MFT has 90% of OWN (without any need for an issue of additional shares) and MFT's share price is around $1.88. My basic maths tells me $1.30 + 90% x $0.95 = $2.15 > $1.88.

    Does anyone have any other views on MFT's fundamentals mon?

    Disc: Hold MFT mon

  2. #2
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    Hmmm, interesting way of looking at what the price should be.

    Could it not be that the share price of MFT should remain the same because before they have a cash assest and now they have 90% of OWN as an asset?

    Or something to that effect...

    Daniel B

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    Probably Daniel mon. I just thought that MFT were funding their acquisition by a combination of selling off some OWN assets plus their ongoing profits mon.

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    Judging by the journalistic coverage of the Owens Group annual meeting, there remains a lot of water to flow under the bridge before Mainfreight and Toll Holdings can look to begin the healing process. What options going forward exist for resolution I wonder?

    Fisher Funds Management Ltd obviously believe that MFT represent value.

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
    Unlisted: KCE SUB

  5. #5
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    250,000 shares have changed hands at $2 each off market
    Anybody any ideas who is buying and selling?

    Disc: Own some
    om mani peme hum

  6. #6
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    2,418,000 shares have moved at $2 a pop this morning.

    This is the largest by far of a number of transaction in the last week or so.

    Someone likes them

    Quartly results also out, plenty of revenue and a little profit

    Disc: Holder
    om mani peme hum

  7. #7
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    MFT appears to be in another downtrend. I'm no chart expert but as far as I can tell the price has breached the recent support of around $1.95.
    Looking further back, the dips this year don't appear very significant, ie a 15c fall in Feb, 20 cent in May and 10c in July.
    Today's price of $1.88 shows a 20c drop from the high of $2.08 recorded in September.
    Thus, judging by the general trend this year, MFT would appear to be good buying right now.
    What do others think?
    Morpheus

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    MFT certainly appears to have breached recent support. It has been trading in a fairly restricted range (rectangular) bounded by about 1.95 and 2.06 for the last 3 months (single its first quarter report). The half year result is due around the 17th of November, so it may drift sideways a bit more before then. I'm aware of at least one broker being bullish about it, and I'm quite happy to hold.

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    Here is what I see when I look at MFT. I have marked nothing at all on the chart so as not to influence anyone. What do you think?

    [u]Short-term </u>:- In a downtrend, after a Double Top (Bearish) SELL.

    [u]Medium-term </u>:- Just ending an uptrend. SELL.

    [u]Long-term </u>:- At the upper margin of a large and ongoing Trading Range. SELL.

    What we have here is a superb medium-term trading stock. Fullstop!



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    Like I said, I'm no chart expert!!
    Thanks Phaedrus

  11. #11
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    Thanks indeed Phaedrus. I am wondering if I have been taking too shorter term view. MFT has clearly broken the uptrend in which it has been for the last twelve months, and could also be viewed as having traded in a rectangle (which I believe is bearish). It is also interesting to note that the resistance at 1.95 once broken became a level of support that it has just broken back through. (Apologies for my chart being a few days old).

    Obviously, from a TA perspective, and from the longer term chart you posted it seems entirely reasonable that it may fall back. It would be interesting to hear from a fundamental perspective as to whether there is upside possibility (given that at least one broker sees possibilities in it).

  12. #12
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    Limegreen,
    Here is a larger scale chart covering the period you were commenting on. It includes todays Close of $1.88 in magenta.
    Technically, MFT is behaving itself very well, as this chart illustrates. You can see broken Resistance becoming Support (right to the cent) You can see the bearish Double Top (right to the cent). You can see steep fall, once previous Support was broken.
    A classical scenario now would be a price increase leading to a failed re-test of the $1.96 Support/Resistance level making a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern. But we won't talk about that.

    People that take brokers advice deserve all they get! Or not. There may well be some fundamental evidence that MFT has upside potential. Perhaps the market is unaware of it or doesn't believe it. This stock is clearly being sold down at the moment.


    PS - Don't forget to trim your charts so that they don't force the entire thread to run offscreen. (Being smaller, they also load quicker - not everyone has broadband!)

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    Thanks Phaedrus. I have had a little trouble easily resizing my charts so they are still legible (they're primarily for my own benefit rather than posting here, and to make them narrower would require that I start from the beginning of the process, so I do apologize, but er, I'm a little lazy).

    quote:A classical scenario now would be a price increase leading to a failed re-test of the $1.96 Support/Resistance level
    I wouldn't be so sad at that. MFT's breakout occurred while I was on holiday. I wouldn't say that I take broker's advice, but it is another barometer I monitor if you will.

    Cheers.



  14. #14
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Why has Mainfreights share price taken a dive? Well obviously I do not actually know, however....

    This is not a particularly heavily traded ON MARKET share these days and there has often been a several cents discrepency between buy and sell and not much in the way of depth, such that the price has bounced around in the $2.00 mark since the beginning of August. There has been quite a bit of off-market trading with institutions buying and selling in the background.

    There has been an almost total lack of news except for the first quarter announcement which to be honest was a bit disappointing but did not seem to disturb the slumbers. The first half year has just finished and I guess it is possible that some knows/suspects that this was not to flash either, the formal announcement is probably several weeks away yet. A number of people are probably a bit jittery due to high fuel costs and the percieved effect that this has on a "trucking" company. [Don't suggest to Don Braid that he runs a trucking company he will explain that this is not so, it is a logistics company ]
    Then again this all started with a single trade that took the price down to 1.95 on Friday (and in which I acquired the last of the shares I was after at $1.98 ). Possibly this just spooked a few people into selling out as well.

    Long term I think that MFT is a company doing the right things and that the share price will recover. The are a company who move stuff around for other companies and they will be affected by oil prices to the degree that their customers are. They are sorting out their Owens purchase and getting their Ozzie ops on the straight and narrow, they have plans in progress to expand their business and are enlarging their presence overseas in SE Asia and America.

    I am sticking with them as a long term bet for the moment. And if I had not spent up recently I would go and buy some more. [^]
    om mani peme hum

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    PT: how do you see MFT standing up to Toll in the long run? I ask because I have ASX.TOL instead... share the same worries about fuel prices etc but I feel happy that Toll is benefiting from network effects and scale.

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