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  1. #11
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    Thanks indeed Phaedrus. I am wondering if I have been taking too shorter term view. MFT has clearly broken the uptrend in which it has been for the last twelve months, and could also be viewed as having traded in a rectangle (which I believe is bearish). It is also interesting to note that the resistance at 1.95 once broken became a level of support that it has just broken back through. (Apologies for my chart being a few days old).

    Obviously, from a TA perspective, and from the longer term chart you posted it seems entirely reasonable that it may fall back. It would be interesting to hear from a fundamental perspective as to whether there is upside possibility (given that at least one broker sees possibilities in it).

  2. #12
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    Limegreen,
    Here is a larger scale chart covering the period you were commenting on. It includes todays Close of $1.88 in magenta.
    Technically, MFT is behaving itself very well, as this chart illustrates. You can see broken Resistance becoming Support (right to the cent) You can see the bearish Double Top (right to the cent). You can see steep fall, once previous Support was broken.
    A classical scenario now would be a price increase leading to a failed re-test of the $1.96 Support/Resistance level making a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern. But we won't talk about that.

    People that take brokers advice deserve all they get! Or not. There may well be some fundamental evidence that MFT has upside potential. Perhaps the market is unaware of it or doesn't believe it. This stock is clearly being sold down at the moment.


    PS - Don't forget to trim your charts so that they don't force the entire thread to run offscreen. (Being smaller, they also load quicker - not everyone has broadband!)

  3. #13
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    Thanks Phaedrus. I have had a little trouble easily resizing my charts so they are still legible (they're primarily for my own benefit rather than posting here, and to make them narrower would require that I start from the beginning of the process, so I do apologize, but er, I'm a little lazy).

    quote:A classical scenario now would be a price increase leading to a failed re-test of the $1.96 Support/Resistance level
    I wouldn't be so sad at that. MFT's breakout occurred while I was on holiday. I wouldn't say that I take broker's advice, but it is another barometer I monitor if you will.

    Cheers.



  4. #14
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    Why has Mainfreights share price taken a dive? Well obviously I do not actually know, however....

    This is not a particularly heavily traded ON MARKET share these days and there has often been a several cents discrepency between buy and sell and not much in the way of depth, such that the price has bounced around in the $2.00 mark since the beginning of August. There has been quite a bit of off-market trading with institutions buying and selling in the background.

    There has been an almost total lack of news except for the first quarter announcement which to be honest was a bit disappointing but did not seem to disturb the slumbers. The first half year has just finished and I guess it is possible that some knows/suspects that this was not to flash either, the formal announcement is probably several weeks away yet. A number of people are probably a bit jittery due to high fuel costs and the percieved effect that this has on a "trucking" company. [Don't suggest to Don Braid that he runs a trucking company he will explain that this is not so, it is a logistics company ]
    Then again this all started with a single trade that took the price down to 1.95 on Friday (and in which I acquired the last of the shares I was after at $1.98 ). Possibly this just spooked a few people into selling out as well.

    Long term I think that MFT is a company doing the right things and that the share price will recover. The are a company who move stuff around for other companies and they will be affected by oil prices to the degree that their customers are. They are sorting out their Owens purchase and getting their Ozzie ops on the straight and narrow, they have plans in progress to expand their business and are enlarging their presence overseas in SE Asia and America.

    I am sticking with them as a long term bet for the moment. And if I had not spent up recently I would go and buy some more. [^]
    om mani peme hum

  5. #15
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    PT: how do you see MFT standing up to Toll in the long run? I ask because I have ASX.TOL instead... share the same worries about fuel prices etc but I feel happy that Toll is benefiting from network effects and scale.

  6. #16
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    I've noted that MFT is a very thinly traded share, so it's thus going to be quite volatile (rather like VTX, another one that periodically gives me the creeps as it bounces). There is a very very short queue of buyers at the moment (3) wanting only about a day's turnover of shares, so it may plunge again if there are willing sellers.

    On a slightly unrelated note, Phaedrus, if you're reading this, I posted a chart (oversize) on the SKX thread, and as an amateur, would be interested in a critique.
    http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20094

    cheers.

  7. #17
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    quote:Originally posted by stephen

    PT: how do you see MFT standing up to Toll in the long run? I ask because I have ASX.TOL instead... share the same worries about fuel prices etc but I feel happy that Toll is benefiting from network effects and scale.
    Toll will provide spirited competition in New Zealand for anybody in those parts of the shifting business in which they compete. Remember that Mainfreights business is end to end logistics of domestic/international Less Than Container Load Consignments.

    They are not the only competition for Mainfreight. However the management of Mainfreight know what they are doing, have a plan, but are flexible enough to cope with changed circumstances.
    There is almost certainly room for consolidation in the industry and in time I think that the big will get bigger.

    [Copyright 2004 Paper Tiger Deluded Ramblings UnInc ]
    om mani peme hum

  8. #18
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    Mainfreight will replace Powerco in the NZX 50. What effect will this have on the SP?

    I bought into Ryman just before it joined the NZX 50 and it has nearly doubled in price.

    Does anyone know if institutions HAVE TO buy shares in the NZX 50 or do they TEND TO buy shares in the NZX 50?

    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  9. #19
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    Passive funds that track/invest in the relevent indices will have to buy MFT. Otherwise institutions buy depending upon their belief in the stock.

    I don't think the share price will double in the next year, I guess it will rise iover the coming couple of weeks whilst the funds buy in. Longer term it may now become more heavily traded.

    Disc: Own MFT
    om mani peme hum

  10. #20
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    Today is the day that Mainfreight joins the NZX50, I believe.

    It must also be getting close to the half year results announcement.

    Last chance to buy before the SP goes to new heights. []

    Hopefully

    Maybe [?]
    om mani peme hum

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