MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[winner69]

They say freight going to be impacted by the virus

Mainfreight are very resilient and been through many global crisis unscathed so should be OK this time as well.

[BlackPeter]

They say freight going to be impacted by the virus

Mainfreight are very resilient and been through many global crisis unscathed so should be OK this time as well.

fuel costs down ... must be good for the likes of MFT.

[CROESUS U.T.]

They don't own many trucks as I understand it, so negligible change. Maybe their subbies may enjoy a lift in their margins.

[macduffy]

They say freight going to be impacted by the virus

Mainfreight are very resilient and been through many global crisis unscathed so should be OK this time as well.

We should expect some impact on their business but yes, one of the better buys if their shareprice suffers a hiding along the way.

[BlackPeter]

... and here is the second review in my wee pseudo random analysis how good analyst predictions are. Bear with me, at some stage I publish as well an overview ...

In January 2019 the peak MFT share price was $32.55 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $30.79 - i.e. the analysts expected the MFT share price to drop over 2019. For some funny reason was their buying recommendation still on a "positive hold" (5.8/10), not quite matching their consensus.

Peak MFT share price in January 2020 was actually $43.55 (i.e. 34% up on the peak January 2019 price and 41% above their consensus prediction), i.e. share price went up significantly despite the analysts forecasting a drop.

Looking at their buy recommendation - MFT kept pace with NZX50 over the last 12 months (neither over nor under performance) - i.e. in that regard their recommendation of hold (5.8) made sense.

Lets say this is a 1:1 for the analysts - with overall score (check my previous posts) so far 1:3 against them.

[BlackPeter]

Managed to get yesterday another parcel for last years prices ($36,20) ;

Just wondering whether they will re-run this special, it certainly sold out fast ...

[peat]

Mainfreight will be quite heavily impacted by the reduction in freight all around the world though, and I imagine even at 36 its still on a very high PE.
It wouldnt have been my favourite to buy at present although is a great company.

[BlackPeter]

Mainfreight will be quite heavily impacted by the reduction in freight all around the world though, and I imagine even at 36 its still on a very high PE.
It wouldnt have been my favourite to buy at present although is a great company.

I guess it is all how you see the future unfold :

At yesterdays buy price the forward PE was 22 with an forward earnings CAGR of 12.5; Not too bad for a great company.

I suspect they will as well benefit from the lower fuel prices and an increased desire of all sorts of customers to transport their goods in the coming months and years with a well established customer focused quality company (even if it is not the cheapest forwarding company). Bad service including delays, lost and damaged goods are so much dearer for the supply chain than paying a good freight company.

Both effects will be good for MFT's margins ...

[longy]

I guess it is all how you see the future unfold :

At yesterdays buy price the forward PE was 22 with an forward earnings CAGR of 12.5; Not too bad for a great company.

I suspect they will as well benefit from the lower fuel prices and an increased desire of all sorts of customers to transport their goods in the coming months and years with a well established customer focused quality company (even if it is not the cheapest forwarding company). Bad service including delays, lost and damaged goods are so much dearer for the supply chain than paying a good freight company.

Both effects will be good for MFT's margins ...

I have sold out years ago on this stock and regretted it ever since. Anyway, opportunity has risen and I bought back in. Beside recession and travel restriction. I guess every one seemed to have their version on how long is this episode will going to be dragged out for. Like many other stocks (beside FPH) are down in a dump... but fundamental MFT is a sound company IMHO.

[macduffy]

I agree, longy. But I'll wait until things settle before adding to my small MFT pile.