MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[Jonette]

You noticed, I had not posted the update anywhere ����.
Yes I thought the same, probably in the opposite order because I was at an investor meeting a couple of days ago and a comment was made that exchange rates are being driven by OCR differences between countries. I had not realised, but the US OCR Is now 3.25% and NZ OCR is 3%, that means it’s not only safer to deposit funds in the US but you also earn more, no surprise that money is pouring into the US increasing their dollar value. The US FED has warned they may go to 4% next time
The RBNZ will need to raise our rates to at least 4% to slow the flow, that’s 100 points, I’m now expecting that change next Wednesday.
BTW, the real estate market has reduced in some areas like Wellington but in others it’s still at the peak, that too is pressure for a higher rate.

[Peitro]

https://jonette.co.nz/ is in my favourites bar, so I had been checking for an update If these figures flow through to MFT, we could well see an interim dividend closing in on $1.

Will be interesting to see how Heavy Traffic vs GDP pans out, breaks certainly not being applied yet.

I'm off to go find Heavy traffic data in the States, I suspect the breaks have a bit more pressure being applied over there at this stage

[Jonette]

I'm off to go find Heavy traffic data in the States, I suspect the breaks have a bit more pressure being applied over there at this stage

let me know if you do. I would like to find a data supply for my AAPL investment

[Jonette]

https://jonette.co.nz/ is in my favourites bar, so I had been checking for an update

due to delays with the Tawa and Drury telemetry site updates, the two most important in NZ, I can’t get full data until the end of the following month. Mid month you get a part story, eg this month on about the 15th I could see August was going to be a great month without those two sites, but can’t publish. To improve forecasting, I’ve also had to fill in missing data for sites that get stopped for roadworks using the week before the stoppage as a proxy.

[winner69]

MFT share price still slip sliding away - down to $67 odd

Hung around $65 for a few months at beginning of 2021 - maybe that level will become support again

Long way from $100 .... but profits keep going up

[BlackPeter]

MFT share price still slip sliding away - down to $67 odd

Hung around $65 for a few months at beginning of 2021 - maybe that level will become support again

Long way from $100 .... but profits keep going up

I recon rising oil prices (cheers to Putin and his OPEC henchmen) are in the long run good news for MFT. While it will weaken the economy in the short term ... weaker economy means dropping oil prices, and these always lead to growth in the phase after.

Anyway - worked for me in the last crisis (the Covid dip, when I bought MFT in the mid 30íes ).

I see MFT moving up to the next level in the next one to two years from now ... economic recoveries are always lead by well run transport companies.

[Peitro]

let me know if you do. I would like to find a data supply for my AAPL investment

Beautiful! Thank you for publishing.

[Jonette]

Beautiful! Thank you for publishing.

I found a data series, the US govt publishes it - so I guess that makes it more reliable.

I was surveyed by Waka Kotahi a couple of weeks ago about my use of the traffic data and commented that Drury and Tawa were often late or ignored when roadworks occurred. They were both updated early this month so I already have their data for September and I have a preliminary update. However, have stuffed up my spreadsheet I am using to manage corrections to older data and need some time to fix it before publishing full updates - which also improves correlation to over 90% due to fixing roadwork data.

The data looks big, ie the NZ September quarter for trucking movements looks like yet another growth period.

I have added the USA truckometer I took from their data - here You may need to update your link for the NZ data too

[alokdhir]

I found a data series, the US govt publishes it - so I guess that makes it more reliable.

I was surveyed by Waka Kotahi a couple of weeks ago about my use of the traffic data and commented that Drury and Tawa were often late or ignored when roadworks occurred. They were both updated early this month so I already have their data for September and I have a preliminary update. However, have stuffed up my spreadsheet I am using to manage corrections to older data and need some time to fix it before publishing full updates - which also improves correlation to over 90% due to fixing roadwork data.

The data looks big, ie the NZ September quarter for trucking movements looks like yet another growth period.

I have added the USA truckometer I took from their data - here You may need to update your link for the NZ data too

If one has to believe your interpretation of the data ...rather then doing it ourselves ....then in your opinion MFT will still be doing better then before as per the latest data with u ...so no downturn in freight as yet ?

[BlackPeter]

If one has to believe your interpretation of the data ...rather then doing it ourselves ....then in your opinion MFT will still be doing better then before as per the latest data with u ...so no downturn in freight as yet ?

I am sure that Freight volumes will be up both in Q3 and (likely, due to it being the future) Q4 - and this is what any truckometer will show as well.

More interesting would be in my view the question whether margins can keep up; I am sure that the ridiculous high diesel prices as well as increased payrates start to bite the industry.