MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[hesiod]

Sheepishly ... oops
a small slip of the cerebrum, thinking freightways writing Mainfreight.

[rmbbrave]

Volume of freight set to double

Monday July 3, 2006
By Jenny Keown


Freight volumes are expected to double over the next 15 years, with road transport tipped to pick up the lion's share of the increase, a report says.

The main lobby group for trucking - the Road Transport Forum - commissioned Transport Engineering Research New Zealand to look into how freight would grow and what share would be carried by rail or road.

The report projects that over the next 15 years freight volumes will double to 230 million tonnes, based on the economy growing at an average of 3.5 per cent a year.

The report forecasts the trucking sector to be the main winner - it is picked to carry about 80 per cent of freight by 2020, or 184 million tonnes a year. Rail will carry about 46 million.

Road Transport Forum chief executive Tony Friedlander said: "Rail could play a significant and potentially increased role in handling this freight task, but it is no substitute for an efficient, reliable and safe road transport service."

The research was important to help understand future freight needs, transport policy decisions and investments, Friedlander said.

But Toll New Zealand reacted with scepticism to the report.

Company spokeswoman Sue Foley said it was nonsense to suggest rail could not handle a big increase in volume.

"The rail infrastructure is there, it just needs long-term investment and then we can handle the capacity."

Foley cited the huge uptake in volume on the Waitoa line, reopened in 2005 after 14 years, to carry dairy freight from Morrinsville to Fonterra's Te Rapa dry store facility as one example.

Fonterra expected to move 600,000 tonnes of dairy a year through Te Rapa, and Toll was hoping to carry a large portion of that, she said.

The report said Te Rapa might be able to make a significant difference to how freight was transported in and out of the region but it required long-term contracts and significant investment by Toll and Fonterra to ensure its success.

Friedlander said the report's findings were based on population growth, dairy, manufacturing and freight to the ports.

It expected freight growth to be highest in Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Waikato and Christchurch.

The report noted that one of the main challenges was the lack of information about freight volumes and volume share on road and rail. There also needed to be more research on freight in the regions.

[Snow Leopard]

The share price is quietly getting on the business of maintaining the uptrend.

[Snow Leopard]

$6.05 [8D]

[luckysexice]

Phaedr can you please posted a chart on MFT lately current market price look like it is going under the trendline any time and the market price is over the forba valuation which is 5.70

[scamper]

Good grief lucky, are you sure you're looking at mft? It seems scarily terrific to me!
Still, a good idea to keep a close eye.

[limegreen]

What valuation did ForBar have on Feltex[?]

Seriously though, it depends a little on perspective. I've never managed to get a confirmed trendline on MFT, which makes it a little speculative, but this is a stock that is not stressing me in the least.

Taking a slightly long-term look, I've plotted MFT here on a log scale (as that is more appropriate for such spectacular price growth). As you can see, in the long term, it is above both a tentative trendline and moving average that have seen some holders well over double their investments.

You will also notice a second set of lines on the recent price action. This is an ascending triangle, a formation that has a likely UPSIDE breakout.



However, if you plot MFT over a shorter time period on a linear axis, then you could have some mild concern. However, it *still* looks like an ascending triangle. I think the most likely scenario is that MFT will break through 6.10, but there is some chance that it might retreat back toward 5.50, but I don't think that will concern long term holders of this stock.

[limegreen]

Chickens. Hatching. Must. Resist. Urge.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Yes k1w1, you have done rather well in the few months you have been aboard.

The question is where to after this slendid rise?
Although my figures are notoriously inacurrate and subject to rapid restatement I will go on the record that I believe the full year for 05-06 will be:
NPAT $27m
NPATA $32.5m
and that a share price of $4.64 is my mid-point for the value of MFT at the end of this month.

A year out I hope NPATA will be $37.3, representing 15% growth, and the SP around $5.40.

Still happy and though I think the spectacular growth in SP of the last three years is coming to an end, I do not see it slouching around either.

Done a bit of revision and my current thinking is that NPATA for 2007 will be about 40cps which is about 15% growth. I believe that growth is sustainable moving towards 2008.
So pick your P/E and determine your price, personally I think that this would be trading at a fair value today of $5.51 rising to $6.00 (P/E = 15) for the end of the financial year.
The market has been more enthusiastic than me about MFT and I am the MFT fanatic around here.
I have not actually bought any MFT for ages, I loaded up big time a while ago at an average buy of $1.92 and the damn thing has grown so fast that it keeps going overweight in my long-term porfolio .

Anyway fundamentally Mainfreight will continue to grow and improve it financial profits, technically it is still in favour.

[Ttops]

I have not actually bought any MFT for ages, I loaded up big time a while ago at an average buy of $1.92 and the damn thing has grown so fast that it keeps going overweight in my long-term porfolio .

Anyway fundamentally Mainfreight will continue to grow and improve it financial profits, technically it is still in favour.

[/quote]
Apparently just like Fisher funds. FF Last bought late 2004 and sold back a bit during 2005. No ramping by FF then? Thanks for the analysis PT [^]
TT