MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[Hoop]

Just bought in today at the new low prices. One of New Zealand's best run companies - happy to take advantage of what I think will be temporary low prices based on a single quarter's mixed results.

I'm with Ratkin one this one...but my reason is technical
The rise in 2011 got MFT into blue sky area and it looked like it rose too fast and too high and got ahead of itself..The mini crash of 8th August which saw the price fall to close at 940 showed a possible warning sign and it set a primary support level..any close below this figure and the stock enters a primary bear tide (bear market). Sparky MFT closed at 940c today...so buying in may produce you with a handsome return if the market bounces back but the risk you are taking to gain this possible reward is too high.

This is Paper Tiger's stock and his comments on this page said it all (Post#332 end of May 2011)

One wonders if some idiot is going to have a go at the $10 barrier.

I am completely out of NZ wine - the last bottle of a rather nice Chardonnay disappeared mid week.
However I do have a passable Shiraz and a few bottles of Sav Cab & Merlot from a fantastic winery in the Yarra Valley.

So that and some raisin bread could well be on the menu this evening.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Recently with Freightways in the limelight Mr Market was able to get MFT totally wrong big time...a techies nightmare.

Disc: sold out on the dead cat bounce after the minicrash (8/8/2011)

[Snow Leopard]

.... This is Paper Tiger's stock and his comments on this page said it all (Post#332 end of May 2011) ....

It is not exclusively mine you understand.
But I was the champion for this stock in days gone by, bravely standing up to the ridicule of my fellow share-traders as they, the non-believers, ignored the profit among them.
However I have regarded the stock as overpriced for a while but have also been quite happy for the force to be strong without me.

Whilst I personally did not, nor would not buy in as Sparky has done, I will let the dust settle and see where it wants to go next. I hope it goes well for you.


best wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: hold MFT, I always hold some MFT

[sharer]

[QUOTE=Hoop;....The mini crash of 8th August which saw the price fall to close at 940 showed a possible warning sign and it set a primary support level..any close below this figure and the stock enters a primary bear tide (bear market). Sparky MFT closed at 940c today...so buying in may produce you with a handsome return if the market bounces back but the risk you are taking to gain this possible reward is too high. ]

Currently dipped to 934, & sellers/buyers fluctuating about 3 to 1.
But still a good business, so i hope Sparky doesn't panic.

[sharer]

Heading into closing hour at 925, and Sell pressure nearly 8 : 1

In guesstimating future business risk: For past 9 months NZ & US seemed very modestly encouraging, Oz uninspiring domestic ok but poor international and static Asia for MFT a caution, Europe a mix of cautions and threatening recession ahead (tho possibly better for MFT in the east, surprisingly).
Their reach now so wide, MFT reflects the global economy (which i guess has been their longterm strategy).
So, it's Hold & Hope.

[janner]

Bigger name clients usually screw the living daylights out of transport..

Although if you can perform at their screwed price they usually stick.

Good bread and butter !!.

[Hoop]

Looking better now at $9.60. In my opinion this stock exhibited all the traits of overselling by panicked stockholders a few days ago.

Yes Sparky its good to see MFT bottom out and break the 940 barrier...but...it's still technically broken.
I agree its looking better... today was a good day, MFT rising 13c to 9.60 to test its EMA200 resistance.

I know your'e not a TA fan but have a look at my long term chart below. It's Friday the 17th chart but it's still relevant.

First of all when a sudden dramatic event happens the human mind can exaggerate that event..charts are good to reinforce the true actual historic event happening and helps the human mind to stay true and correct.

Chartwise the gap down from 10.35 to 9.35 on the 14th Feb was very dramatic for MFT but was it a panic sell? The Chart says no. The RSI indicator measures the overbuying and overselling investor behaviour and yes there was a large drop to selling behaviour. If you look at March 2009 on the chart you can just pick up the panic selling from the crash..you can see it was well below the 30...the February 14th selloff was above 30 so it was a rational logical selloff (a market correction) caused by unexpected change to market data

The EMA200 is the line you should be interested in Sparky, its a lagging indicator for long term investors its trend usually confirms the market cycle.
When a bull market goes bear the primary up trend line always breaks...however a TA trendy's life is not easy because sometimes the primary trend line breaks while a bull market corrects itself. This is when lagging indicators become important because they can confirm a cycle change.
The MA200 on the MFT chart below has altered direction from uptrending to levelling out...at the moment a flat line MA200 hasn't convincingly confirmed that the primary trend line break is due to a new bear cycle but 8 months of lower highs and lower lows is forming a down trending channel formation and the MA200 is influenced by this

...so.... the outlook for MFT (at this moment in time) isn't great unless the market receives unexpected positive data to force another market correction....or....the NZ equity market booms to which the rising tide lifts up all boats (except submarines).

[Snow Leopard]

Yes Sparky its good to see MFT bottom out and break the 940 barrier...but...

...so.... the outlook for MFT (at this moment in time) isn't great unless the market receives unexpected positive data to force another market correction....or

....the NZ equity market booms to which the rising tide lifts up all boats (except submarines).

Hoop:
you are beginning to remind me too much of Phaedrus...

... except for that last bit where you remind me too much of me.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

or their late.

General expectation is for around $65m profit.

Tomorrow we find out the truth.

Attachment 4000

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Lizard]

or their late.

General expectation is for around $65m profit.

Tomorrow we find out the truth.

$65.7m. Happy then?

Presume they will pull it together this period and you can get back through $10 again.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Plus 29 cents so far.
Good for Fisherfund holders.