MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[Snow Leopard]

I have a soft spot for Mainfreight, it being the first shares I ever bought* and so even though I have not owned any for a while I still keep an eye on them.

The share price is going downhill faster than a fully loaded rig with brake problems and getting to the sort of price that I find interesting.
Now I am currently happy for it to descend as much as it likes but I am prepared for a change in gradient.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*Technically the first shares I ever 'owned' were two lots (they spelt my name differently for each lot) of Advantage shares under the employee share scheme. But I never paid for them, gave them up when I left and they never paid any dividends.
It was at Advantage that I first met Eric Watson and disliked him instantly.

[Mista_Trix]

Main article on Herald business page at the moment;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10892979

[Banksie]

Once again highlights the poor quality of reporting.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/MFT/announcements/237816

Should have been easy to check the facts about whether or not the loss had been disclosed to the stock exchange.

[Mista_Trix]

I've really got to stop trusting reporters :-S

Cheers Banksie.

[nextbigthing]

Did anybody make it to the AGM today? Anything of interest come out of it? Situation for European operations?

[nextbigthing]

Mainfreight as a medium term hold?

MFT last returned 66 cents per share. At the AGM it was announced they anticipated a 2.5% decrease due to the dropping of parcels in Australia as they refocus on more profitable ops there. Logically the share price dropped 2.5%. Let's say for arguments sake they now return 64cps. Closing price $10.45

.64÷10.45= 6% return (not necessarily to investors of course).

So if growth was to stop in that any increase in revenue from now was met by a corresponding increase in costs and all other factors remained more or less unchanged, this company could 'in theory' return a 6% dividend to investors. Not amazing but not that bad either. This assumes no growth.

Now look at the speeches from the AGM.

1) Our Australian operations are being hindered by a lack of capacity.

OK - let me get this straight, you're so busy you don't have enough room. Sounds like a reasonable sort of problem to have to me. How is this being resolved? You're building extra capacity in pretty much all the Australian cities over the next couple of years. Brilliant.

2) European operations are slow.

You're earning a 6% return overall with a sluggish sector dragging you down. What's going to happen when this sector picks up? Worst case should be 6% return and when it picks up, who knows.

3) New offices opening in many countries....

Shorter term sure this is costly but medium and longer term this is only going to add to marketability and efficiency and surely profits. You're carrying many of these new offices now and making 6%, so anything they can make will only add to this.

Other debatable favourable items;

Strong stable management
Proven history with strong future direction and sensible strong realistic growth
Non speculative industry. Not needing legislation against.

IMHO buying mainfreight means most likely at worst a 6% return with the likely possibility of some serious growth from new branches around the world and growth and efficiency in Australia.

What are your thoughts?


Disc; own MFT and at 10.45 considering some more!

[nextbigthing]

Any chartists follow this stock? Nicely trending up consistently for a month now.

NBT

[Jay]

Somewhere Hoop or was it halebop mentioned that you could trade it on the 30 MA. he/she did track it over a few years and would have done/did do well out of it.

I had a look a few weeks ago, at the last year or so and got a gross return of around 17% pa. I think it was may have been net.

[nextbigthing]

There's one seller at 11.89 then one at $12 and that's it! Granted its a very dynamic situation of course but still....

[Huskeez]

My system seen it around a month ago and indicated a "buy" signal which I posted on the exact day I got the signal. Cant remember the date. You will be able to find it by looking through my posts