MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[Huskeez]

Above post was intended for "nextbigthing"

[nextbigthing]

Above post was intended for "nextbigthing"

Hey Huskeez,

Thanks, I did see that on the systems thread. I didn't have time to analyse the system but I like the result!

Does your system predict exits as well or just 'buys'. I'm a long term holder in MFT as I believe it is a very strong company, however I'm considering trading in it too. It does experience lower liquidity however.

Anyway, I hope you acted on the systems advice!?

Cheers,

NBT

[percy]

Am enjoying "Ready Fire Aim The Mainfreight Story" by keith Davies.isbn,978177532903.

[Hoop]

Hey Huskeez,

Thanks, I did see that on the systems thread. I didn't have time to analyse the system but I like the result!

Does your system predict exits as well or just 'buys'. I'm a long term holder in MFT as I believe it is a very strong company, however I'm considering trading in it too. It does experience lower liquidity however.

Anyway, I hope you acted on the systems advice!?

Cheers,

NBT

Yes its a strong company..also a growth company... so with a PE of 17 in a low inflation environment,... why is MFT share price being lack lustre???
A 10 year chart sheds some light light on the subject......market darling with a too rapid climb to become well overvalued to the unjust (insane) market price the other way during the GFC crash.....It seems by taking a ruler to the chart and average out those violent swings it seems the pricing now is a rare "normal" with a lowish PE built in as a buffer to a slowing of growth...
but how ever you look at the last 2 years or so it's been a disappointment compared to its market environment which has been enjoying a raging bull market cycle period



and if a person looks at a 1year chart it seems a blane picture but there is a bright spot...its has a low successful bullish ascending scallop pattern which looks to have a flag on it now (a pause event) if this pattern succeeds then a target price of 12.60 is formulated but the success here could be limited when it tests the all time high resistance at $12.20. (To the untrained eye the ascending scallop looks like a fish hook starting near the bull trap and ending on the October line on the chart below...for the scallop pattern to perform bullishly it has to break the 11.60 resistance)

The presently squeezed Bollinger bands may be telling a story that the present short term down channel is nothing more than a pause before the longer term uptrend is resumed therefore creating a bullish flag pattern (the last down sloping (where the green arrow is) channel pattern on the chart below)

[nextbigthing]

Thanks Hoop, excellent chart.

[nextbigthing]

Hoop,

Your charts and statements would then suggest the following to me;

'This is a solid long term stock, that has lagged slightly behind where it should be in the market in the last two years but is showing short term signs that it might be about to play catch up - which sounds like a good entry point into a reasonably 'safe' stock'.

Why has it lagged behind then? I would suggest that perhaps it's because of the more 'sexy' options out there at the moment - the PEB's XRO's SML's etc. Perhaps when favour for these stocks tires or the money has been made elsewhere and the market as a whole takes a breather, the money may return to boring old MFT?

Just a theory. DYOR

NBT

Disc; Hold.

[Hoop]

Hoop,

Your charts and statements would then suggest the following to me;

'This is a solid long term stock, that has lagged slightly behind where it should be in the market in the last two years but is showing short term signs that it might be about to play catch up - which sounds like a good entry point into a reasonably 'safe' stock'.

Why has it lagged behind then? I would suggest that perhaps it's because of the more 'sexy' options out there at the moment - the PEB's XRO's SML's etc. Perhaps when favour for these stocks tires or the money has been made elsewhere and the market as a whole takes a breather, the money may return to boring old MFT?

Just a theory. DYOR

NBT

Disc; Hold.

Yeah..the charts suggest MFT is definitely not in a state of exuberance...however as the 10year chart says, stocks can stay in an oversold or overbought stages for years....and while you are waiting months or years (collecting a lowsh 2.8% yield rate in Dividends) for a great fundamental stock to shake off it's oversold status its fundamental status could change e.g market environment change and entering a recession...
It may seem a "safe" stock atm being in a state of oversold but having your money waiting in an under-performing stock reduces your ability and agility to grab opportunities elsewhere....so..yes..there is a good argument saying that while the investors are away playing in greener pastures chasing the exuberant stuff, MFT is overlooked and languishes.

Is MFT showing signs of catch up......technically not yet.... Busting top resistance and gaping up to form a series of new highs would trigger a "catch up in the making" buy signal...the 10year chart would suggest an overbought status at $13 could be considered a realistic happening....but pessimistically so too could $10.00..

How Safe is "safe"....History has MFT having a poor record fighting with the bears....In hindsight it had good fundamentals compared to many other stocks during the last crash but the shareprice fell heavily, obviously the investors hearing of near empty depot sheds and trucks off the road, didn't see it in a positive light at the time...

,,any thoughts from the Fundies..???

[Snow Leopard]

Hoop you need to find something that does a log price scale - using a linear scale over such a wide price range is not at all useful in my books.



Blue line is a 10 year linear regression, green is the equivalent of the line from the chart above:



Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Mista_Trix]

Looks like it may finally be starting to turn around;
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/mainfre...sian-growth-bd

Well done holders, my suuuuper boring long term play is finally starting to pay off.
Definitely the most unsexy part of my portfolio (XRO, PEB, SUM), but its seen an av 18% gain so far for me so I'm happy.

[Mista_Trix]

Jeez, $3 Million in off market trades have just gone through.