MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

**longy** · 05-09-2015, 10:41 AM

I took a bite at MFT yesterday. Got a feeling it may jump a little. Any one has any thoughts on this stock? Given commodities are not looking too good. I rather put money on something with some track of records on earnings.

**Beagle** · 05-09-2015, 10:45 AM

I saw the CEO on Q&A last Sunday morning. Basically admitted they'd misjudged Australia's slowdown and invested too much there in infrastructure, not quite in those words but if you read between the lines you will get the picture. If you go onto TVNZ's website you may be able to access last weeks programme and see for yourself what he said.
He came across as pretty stoic in terms of the downturn's effect on MFT but he would wouldn't he. I think they will get hit by the bear market just as much as anyone else and technically the stock doesn't look too flash. Dividend yield is very low and the PE is not compelling. I did hold and sold out at just on $16.00 some time back. I have no intention of getting back in until the global economic picture looks more robust.
My 2 cents...

**nextbigthing** · 05-09-2015, 01:29 PM

I'm a huge fan of Mainfreight, very well run company. However even I have sold out a while ago now, in at $10 something a couple of years ago and out at over $15 plus dividends so it has been a good run.
I don't like the look of the chart, looks to be in a reasonable downtrend now. Also, while they're a stable option, I think there's better returns out there, I don't see a stellar performance over the next couple of years with growth stifled. As KW said on another thread just recently, and she's absolutely right, 'A great company doesn't necessarily make a great investment' and unfortunately I feel MFT is a great example at the moment.

Just my opinion Longy, I'm certainly no expert. Hopefully MFT and your investment proves me wrong!

**gv1** · 05-09-2015, 03:09 PM

Yes, I bought into this as well but sold out at a loss...

**longy** · 10-11-2015, 10:20 AM

The market did not seem to like the announcement. So revenue increased as well as over head hence net profit is negative for the last six months. On the positive higher over costs were incurred to assist growth... Is this a negative aspect though? But I am guessing the not so good part is management indicated the trend pretty much the same for the rest of the year? Thoughts any one.

MFT
10/11/2015 08:30
HALFYR
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0830 HRS Mainfreight Limited

HALFYR: MFT: Mainfreight Results for Six Months Ended September 2015

MAINFREIGHT LIMITED

Financial result for the six months ended 30 September 2015 (Unaudited)

Commentary
Mainfreight is pleased to report our six monthly results to 30 September
2015. In this result, total revenue (sales) increased 12.9% to $1.114
billion, a record for our half year reporting. (Excluding foreign exchange
effects the increase is 5.6%).

EBITDA improved 3.3% to $71.58 million (excluding foreign exchange effects,
down 2.1%).

Net profit (before abnormals) has declined slightly, down 1.5% to $33.14
million. This is less disappointing than it appears at first sight, as it is
largely a result of increased costs that have been incurred to assist our
growth development across the business, albeit with effects of softer trading
in the domestic Australian and United States markets.

EBITDA performance improved for our Asia and Europe operations, however
declined in Australia, New Zealand and the Americas as overhead cost
increases exceeded gross margin increases.

Trading in the month of September improved across all five regional
divisions, and weekly pre Christmas volumes have been stronger through
October and now into November.

**Beagle** · 10-11-2015, 10:29 AM

An extremely disappointing result. I think they have over-invested in Australia in a slowing economy there and its come back to bite them. Very pleased I decided to sell some time back and exit this very low growth / no growth company. I am not at all surprised to see the SP coming under pressure. Really up till now they've been talking about modest EPS growth IIRC haven't they ?... so this is a stark contrast to what they've previously been signalling to the market and will likely lead to significant analyst downgrades.

**Hoop** · 10-11-2015, 10:53 AM

Wow...$15.05 down 0.95c -5.9% ..Mr Market didn't see that punch coming his way...quiet the opposite...This price drop has ended another rally of a lower high...

**percy** · 10-11-2015, 10:59 AM

Yesterday all was well, with the SP $16, the 50day EMA $15.13, and the 200 day EMA at $15.23.
Today on the announcement it all turns to custard.!

**stoploss** · 10-11-2015, 12:07 PM

Originally Posted by Roger

I saw the CEO on Q&A last Sunday morning. Basically admitted they'd misjudged Australia's slowdown and invested too much there in infrastructure, not quite in those words but if you read between the lines you will get the picture. If you go onto TVNZ's website you may be able to access last weeks programme and see for yourself what he said.
He came across as pretty stoic in terms of the downturn's effect on MFT but he would wouldn't he. I think they will get hit by the bear market just as much as anyone else and technically the stock doesn't look too flash. Dividend yield is very low and the PE is not compelling. I did hold and sold out at just on $16.00 some time back. I have no intention of getting back in until the global economic picture looks more robust.
My 2 cents...

Good post here Roger .