MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[winner69]

Jarden retained its 97 SP target. Craigs coming out this am too

Way guru Lister was espousing on about MFT yesterday maybe their analysts will put up a number over 100 bucks

Checked in teh bottom drawer this morning .... the ones I got in the mid twenties are still there (not an XXXL parcel like Peters sadly) .... does that make me a long term holder

[Biscuit]

......Checked in teh bottom drawer this morning .... the ones I got in the mid twenties are still there (not an XXXL parcel like Peters sadly) .... does that make me a long term holder

Well, bright-line test for property is ten years.... Mid twenties makes your holding about 4-5 years old, so no you are clearly still just a trader. Come back in another 5 years and we might give you the benefit of the doubt.

From 20 bucks to (almost certainly) 100 bucks in five years, that's trucking eh?

[Muse]

Craigs new TP
$95.80

[alokdhir]

These TP of MFT were for calendar 2021 , what about 2022 targets ?

[Muse]

both of the above broker target prices are 12 month target prices, not current spot prices. Sometimes broker do provide their spot valuation sometimes they dont. However it can be worked out - target prices are the spot valuation rolled forward at the cost of equity less forecast dividends to be paid over that period.

[Rawz]

MFT probably do a FPH and be flat for a year

[Muse]

MFT probably do a FPH and be flat for a year

Aye perhaps. Mft benefit from high freight rates and i struggle to see how earnings from that can be maintainable but for a few years. They are dramatically building their network which could offset falling freight rates but they have a lot of capex to spend doing that which weighs on cashflows (and dcf valuations). Brokers are often using blended dcf and compco multiples in their TPs with the dcf implied value way lower than compco values because of that capex.

Happy holder if not a buyer.

[Biscuit]

Aye perhaps. Mft benefit from high freight rates and i struggle to see how earnings from that can be maintainable but for a few years. They are dramatically building their network which could offset falling freight rates but they have a lot of capex to spend doing that which weighs on cashflows (and dcf valuations). Brokers are often using blended dcf and compco multiples in their TPs with the dcf implied value way lower than compco values because of that capex.

Happy holder if not a buyer.

Cashflows are being put under pressure in the short term as MFT use this set of circumstances to grow their business. But ultimately that should lead to much greater cashflow (hopefully) and therefore higher (current) dcf valuations, assuming analysts have any real grasp of future cashflow.

[Muse]

Cashflows are being put under pressure in the short term as MFT use this set of circumstances to grow their business. But ultimately that should lead to much greater cashflow (hopefully) and therefore higher (current) dcf valuations, assuming analysts have any real grasp of future cashflow.

For sure. Just making the point that increased earnings coming from the up & coming increased branch network wont (for a time) produce as much fcf as the earnings coming from increased freight rates (which are broadly straight to the fcf line). Its the right thing to do none the less and after the capex buldge is over fcfs improve and so in theory should mft’s equity value.

[Biscuit]

That's the past now. The question now is whether to sell some at $94 or hold on?

Back down to $91 today, so would have been a good sell at $94 yesterday.